Greetings all. Now that spring is here, in South-Central Alaska, time to examine this past winter in some detail, as it has been a very interesting and turbulent one. And to put it in perspective with what has been going on elsewhere in North America, which has been quite alarming, in the central and eastern U.S. and Southern Canada.
The Alaska Climate Research Centre, which is part of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, developed and maintains the informative graphics located at the link above. We'll use these to illustrate just how interesting, and chaotic a winter it has been here in South-Central (and most of Alaska, really), along with a few pictures of ours with some ground truth for you, around the Anchorage/South-Central area. .
This is a graph of all the daily high and low temperatures from the official Anchorage climate station, at the NOAA/National Weather Service office, near the Anchorage/Ted Stevens International Airport. We'll keep these mainly in degrees F since that is how they are presented on this graph. You can see how variable/turbulent the monthly departures from mean temperatures were, which was certainly reflected by the weather we experienced. The monthly departure of temperature averages from the means are as follows:
Dec: +4.0
Jan: -14.6
Feb: +4.9
Mar: -5.2 For the winter as a whole (Nov-Mar): -3.8F (-2.3C)
NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR
Barrow -0.9 -1.8 -7.2 +2.0 -8.9Nome -9.5 -3.0 -22.5 +3.7 -9.1
Bethel -10.2 +4.0 -14.6 +5.0 -5.2
Fairbanks -10.8 +8.1 -19.0 +7.2 -6 .9
Juneau -3.7 +3.9 -1.4 +3.6 -0.7
For Alaska as a whole then, roughly speaking (since we're using just these 5 stations from around the state), the mean temperature departure for the NOV-MAR period was -3.8F (-2.1C), slightly below average. In the broadest sense, the jet stream stayed further north most of the winter heading mostly into SE Alaska and Canada (but not the lower 48 often enough, as we'll see!). When the jet stream was in that pattern, there were more low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which were able to move over or near South-Central Alaska, giving us this, the graph below, above average precipitation for most of the winter. Along with the coolest temperatures, in NOV, JAN, and MAR. In DEC and to a lesser extent FEB, the strongest portion of the jet stream directed lows directly over or just to the west of South-Central Alaska, bringing our warmest weather, but also the strong, sometimes damaging windstorms.
With the generally favourable jet stream configuration, keeping so many more lows further north, moving over or not too far to the east of South-Central Alaska, the snow just kept coming. Even in December, as warm as it was, after a couple strong windstorms with abrupt warming to temperatures as high as 42-48F (7-9C), heavy snowfalls still occurred on the back-sides of them, as cold air swept in behind, after they moved inland. March proved quieter, in this respect, it is usually one of the driest months in most of the state. The extensive seasonal ice cover in the Bering and Chukchi sea keeps weather systems from being able to pick up much moisture if they move over them, heading east or northeast and inland.
As you can see from Anchorage's snow depth plot this winter, we got off to a great start in November, with 10" on the ground by 6th. After the very warm windstorms of 04-08 DEC, heavy snowfalls still continued, so depths increased greatly during that month. We reached our plateau, 36" (91.4cm) the first week in March, then gradually began losing it, as expected, with the longer days of stronger sun, and occasional warm spells. The depth of 23" (58.4cm) as of 07 APR is the greatest for this date in the last 20 years.
Kluane's travel on the ice was easy and safe, here on the North Fork of Campbell Creek, not too far from the CFRC. Even by 11/10, the ice was building up fast, as temperatures fell below 0F at night occasionally. Here at the base of the Chugach mountains.
Kluane came to us on the last day in October, from Alaska Dog and Puppy Rescue.
Kluane came to us on the last day in October, from Alaska Dog and Puppy Rescue.
http://www.akdogandpuppyrescue.com/ He had been turned into the Anchorage Animal Shelter by a family when he was a year old for being too hyperactive, nipping (but not biting aggresively) and jumping. On his last day before his allotted time was up, AK Dog and Puppy Rescue took him in and found foster homes for him, until we found him, and brought him home. We think he is Bernese Mountain Dog and Husky mix, and will be two years old in mid-May. He is a very smart and happy youngster, still learning the ways of the wilderness, and how to relate to the other species there. Mattie is trying to teach him, but he is still very young and full of energy. He loves to get into water, which is unusual for huskies, and has a very unfortunate drive to try and herd moose, possibly from his Bernese side, which are sheepdogs in Switzerland.
Sometimes on our cross-country ski or running outings, he thrashed around in the icy streams, then plowed through the already deep powder in mid-November. Becoming the Yeti of the Chugach, or a Dr. Seuss nightmare of a creature.
By the third week in November, we already had over a foot snowdepth near the airport, and almost twice that here on the trails near the CFRC, at the base of the Chugach. We were in cross-country ski heaven, both classic and skate skiing were fantastic all month. And because the rest of North America had warmer than normal conditions and much less snow, Anchorage had the greatest depth of any large city on the continent, and was Snow City N.A.!
December was a stressful month for everyone living in the Anchorage Bowl. The six windstorms, two of which had gusts over 100 mph (the strongest - 118 mph!) along the hillsides, brought abrupt warming, strong winds, periods of rain, then followed by sometimes heavy snow. Air travel was disrupted into Anchorage by periods of severe turbulence and wind shear (the ANC bowl is highly vulnerable to these because of it's unique topography), with some pilots reporting the worst conditions they'd ever experienced in decades-long careers.
The unprecedented SIX consecutive windstorms from 04-21 DEC were beyond the memory of even the oldest residents of Anchorage. Typically there are just one or two storms of this type per year! There were alot of trees blown down throughout the ANC Bowl, including our bridge across the N. Fk of Campbell Creek, which we use daily on our runs/skis along the base of the Chugach. We had to drag out the trusty APR Stihl chainsaw and do some bridge and trail clearing. Many homes had roof and fence damage, including throughout the neighbourhood that the CFRC is located in. We spent a few sleepless nights worrying about roof and structural damage at the CFRC, as the whole building shook in the stronger gusts and windows rattled. On at least two occasions at the CFRC, gusts of 80 mph (128 kph) occurred.
There was even a grizzly bear still active in early Dec, we saw it's prints occasionally on our runs. A man living on the hillside saw him nosing around their backyard during the strongest storm, a large older male! Quite something to think about. It's possible he was sick or injured, preventing him from being able to hibernate. By the middle of the month, his signs stopped appearing.
Running during the strong windstorms (forget about skiing) was stressful at times, having to worry about the possibility of flying tree limbs, falling trees, and icy conditions. As it was, I fell and broke my hand on 12/20 at the start of this run, during our last DEC windstorm. Slipped on solid slanted ice hiding beneath a small accumulation of wet slush and went down hard onto my right arm/hand running full speed. It was quite painful, and I had to break for a few minutes before resuming, whilst Mattie and Kluane tended to your lead editor.
This polar-orbiting satellite (POES) image shows our strongest DEC windstorm and the pattern causing it very nicely. Strong south jet stream flow caused by a large high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is forcing a low pressure system with a deep "atmospheric river" of moisture northward from the subtropics, into Alaska. This storm brought strong winds, and heavy rain, followed by heavy snow, to all of mainland Alaska south of the Alaska Range, from Kodiak east to Yakutat. Whilst all of the SW of Canada and the west of the U.S. stayed mild and dry, underneath that very strong high pressure ridge. A pattern that is occurring more frequently now over western North America, as the globe continues it's rapid warming from our industrial/transportation inputs of CO2 and Methane from fossil-fuel combustion.
After the stress of the first three weeks of DEC, colder, and continued snowy weather brought quieter, more tranquil conditions to South-Central Alaska. Assistant editor Mattie was having to work quite hard on our snowshoe outings up the lower slopes of the Chugach in the deep powder here in early January.
January ended up having a -14.6F departure from average for the monthly mean temperature in Anchorage. This translated to many days at the CFRC and our adjacent trails where after low temperatures of -20 to -25F, highs would only be -15F or so. On this day, we had our coldest skate-ski outing of the winter. It was about -15F at the time of this picture, on the multi-use trail in Hillside Park. Skate skiing becomes very slow below 0F as the glide of the skis decrease. Waxing helps, but still not enough to cause great slowing. It took almost twice as long to do our normal 15K short route this day.
By the middle of the month, up in the higher country of the Chugach, snow depths were over twice what they were down lower in the city. Here near the Williwaw Lakes, which we skied into in early JAN, the tops of the 8-15' mountain hemlocks are barely visible. Whilst the frozen lakes are buried. 
Contrast that to how the area looked just over three months previously, in late September. On a calm, cool, exceedingly rare, windless day! Allowing the crystal clear cold lakes to become perfect mirrors.
February brought much warmer temperatures after the sometimes bitter cold of January. Caused by more southerly flow bringing lows on a track to the west of South-Central Alaska. Bringing mild maritime air northward from the Pacific. Here Mattie is investigating some other people out in one of the two other, weaker windstorms we had in February. On this day, temperatures were near 37F (+3C) with winds of 35-50 mph. 
The warmer conditions, longer days, and continued heavy snowfalls, made back-country travel in different areas of the Chugach mountains increasingly enjoyable. We made our first trip on classic cross country skis up the Eagle River, upriver from the Nature Centre, late in the month. Temperatures were a relatively balmy 15-20F, allowing for a very pleasant day in this incredibly beautiful 5000-7000 ft. deep canyon, just 20 miles NE of Anchorage. Moody lighting from lower clouds and snow flurries highlighted parts of these incredibly steep, rocky/icy slopes. The highest of which receive snow even through the summer.
The ice on the Eagle River was already at least 2-3 feet thick, then with at least that much more snow on top of it. On this fast-flowing river in the steep canyon, some sections never freeze, but there are always ways to ski around those. This canyon is one our favourite, and treasured areas to hike/run/ski in, throughout the year. We are so fortunate to have it this close at hand.
March returned colder than average conditions to South-Central Alaska, but with less snowfall. This was great for our daily runs/skis and back-country outings. Keeping the snowpack in good condition, and not allowing the rivers/streams to begin thawing/opening up. On our second ski up the Eagle River in mid-March, on a cloudy, slightly snowy day with temperatures of 15-20F (about 10-15F below average for high temps.), the now stronger, higher sun was filtered by the clouds and flurries. And the river ice was in great shape.
Kluane was having a great time by late in March, plowing through the 4-6 ft deep snowpack around the trails/roads on our daily runs and skis. With his larger, webbed feet, he can move much faster than many other dogs through deep snow. And his thick fur keeps him very warm.
All in all, although there were some very stressful times in December, this winter we will long remember for it's interesting, and enjoyable weather, most of the time. The colder, snowier conditions made for excellent skiing and kept the rivers/lakes stable for safe travel. We are uneasy though about the potential for stronger and more frequent windstorms through the winter months, as with more warming, there will be more energy to fuel them from the contrast of cold arctic air over the mainland with the warmer, moister maritime airmasses coming up from the Pacific.
This was all in very great contrast though to what has happened this past winter/early spring in much of the U.S. and southern Canada!
More than 15,000 warm temperature records broken during March
- Common Dreams staff
The contiguous United States experienced the warmest March ever in the
warmest start of the year ever in the warmest 12-month period ever, according to
new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The record warm March
temperatures hit the entire nation with each state having experienced at least
one record warm daily temperature. The NOAA reports that there were over 15,000
warm temperature records broken during the month.
The NOAA also connected the record breaking March temperatures to the slew of tornadoes saying that "warmer-than-average conditions across the eastern U.S. also created an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes."
The first three months of the year were record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
The April 2011 to March 2012 period, which included the second hottest summer and fourth warmest winter, was the warmest such period in the contiguous U.S..
Looking at whether human-caused global warming was a factor, NOAA analysts wrote in a draft assessment on "Meteorological March Madness 2012": "Our current estimate of the impact of GHG (greenhouse gases) forcing is that it likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude of the heat wave during 12-23 March. And the probability of heatwaves is growing as GHG-induced warming continues to progress."
NOAA: This animation shows the locations of each of the 7,793 daytime and 7,493 nighttime records (or tied records) in sequence over the 31 days in March.
The first three months of 2012 were also record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
Stu Ostro, a senior Weather Channel meteorologist, told msnbc.com that the bigger picture isn't promising.
The record warm March
temperatures hit the entire nation with each state having experienced at least
one record warm daily temperature. The NOAA reports that there were over 15,000
warm temperature records broken during the month.The NOAA also connected the record breaking March temperatures to the slew of tornadoes saying that "warmer-than-average conditions across the eastern U.S. also created an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes."
The first three months of the year were record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
The April 2011 to March 2012 period, which included the second hottest summer and fourth warmest winter, was the warmest such period in the contiguous U.S..
Looking at whether human-caused global warming was a factor, NOAA analysts wrote in a draft assessment on "Meteorological March Madness 2012": "Our current estimate of the impact of GHG (greenhouse gases) forcing is that it likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude of the heat wave during 12-23 March. And the probability of heatwaves is growing as GHG-induced warming continues to progress."
And Jerry Meehl, a climate scientist with the
National Center for Atmospheric Research, told
the Associated Press, “Everybody has this uneasy feeling. This is weird. This is
not good.”
A report issued last month from the
Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) linked the increase in extreme
weather with human-caused global warming. “The information is all on the table,”
Thomas Stocker, one of the report’s lead authors, told EurActiv.
“If you have high emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, then you
will increase the incidence of ‘hottest days’ by a factor of 10.”
* * *NOAA: This animation shows the locations of each of the 7,793 daytime and 7,493 nighttime records (or tied records) in sequence over the 31 days in March.
* * *
From the NOAA report:The first three months of 2012 were also record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
- Numerous cities had a record warm January-March, including Chicago, Boston, and Washington, D.C. No state in the contiguous U.S. had below-average January-March temperatures.
- "The previous 12-month period (April-March), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The 12-month running average temperature was 55.4°F, which is 2.6°F above the 20th century average." * * *
Stu Ostro, a senior Weather Channel meteorologist, told msnbc.com that the bigger picture isn't promising.
"It's not only what happened in March in North America," he said, "it's the context: the extremity of this extraordinary early-season heat in the U.S. and southern Canada, plus Norway and Scotland breaking their March high temperature records; Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 having their hottest summer on record, even hotter than during the Dust Bowl; the off-the-charts 2010 Russia heat wave along with approximately 20 countries setting high temperature records that summer; and Canada having its warmest winter and year on record in 2010."
"All of this happening with such frequency," he added, "provides overwhelmingly convincing evidence that the overall increased warmth is making the atmosphere more conducive to these sorts of heat extremes."
For us, here at the Alaska Progressive Review, we feel this to be as significant, and alarming of an occurrence, as the Australian wildfires of Feb. 2009, and the Russian heatwave/wildfire outbreak of summer 2010 (in which at least 60,000 deaths occurred due to the dangerous air quality).
Cheers.
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