WARNING LIGHTS ARE FLASHING II - Wilting in Cascadia, Trouble in the Taiga

Friends and family are suffering down in the Northwestern lower 48 states. Summer heat as bad as any ever recorded is afflicting Western Oregon and Washington:

Excessive Heat WarningURGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
230 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VERNONIA...JEWELL...TRASK...
GRANDE RONDE...TIDEWATER...SWISSHOME...ST. HELENS...CLATSKANIE...
HILLSBORO...PORTLAND...OREGON CITY...GRESHAM...SALEM...
MCMINNVILLE...DALLAS...EUGENE...CORVALLIS...ALBANY...HOOD RIVER...
CASCADE LOCKS...MULTNOMAH FALLS...SANDY...
SILVER FALLS STATE PARK...SWEET HOME...GOVERNMENT CAMP...
DETROIT...SANTIAM PASS...VIDA...LOWELL...COTTAGE GROVE...
MCKENZIE BRIDGE...OAKRIDGE...WILLAMETTE PASS...PARKDALE...ODELL...
COLDWATER RIDGE VISITORS CENTER...MOUNT ST. HELENS...FRANCES...
RYDERWOOD...LONGVIEW...KELSO...CASTLE ROCK...STEVENSON...
SKAMANIA...VANCOUVER...BATTLE GROUND...WASHOUGAL...TOUTLE...
ARIEL...COUGAR

230 PM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT
THURSDAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWEST OREGON...

AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PDT
THURSDAY.

WITH A STUBBORNLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH OR ECLIPSE TUESDAYS RECORD BREAKING MAXIMUMS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOWLAND AREAS. THE COAST RANGE AND CASCADES WILL ALSO BE
HOT...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING 95 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. THE
WEATHER WILL BE LESS HOT ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR 100 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HOT AFTERNOONS...LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE TO NO COOLING
INFLUENCE FROM THE OCEAN...AND A SOMEWHAT HUMID AIR MASS IN
PLACE...NIGHTS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS
PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER. THIS LACK OF OVERNIGHT RELIEF MAY MAKE
THIS HEATWAVE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS IN THE CITIES...ESPECIALLY
FOR THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS
SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE LIKELY. DRINK PLENTY OF
FLUIDS...STAY IN AN AIR CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...
AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
&&
$$

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
552 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2009
ORZ003>014-WAZ019-020-022-023-039-040-301300-
COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-
CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-LOWER COLUMBIA-
GREATER PORTLAND METRO AREA-CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY-
SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY-WESTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE-
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES-
CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN LANE COUNTY-CASCADES IN LANE COUNTY-
UPPER HOOD RIVER VALLEY-SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADES-WILLAPA HILLS-I-
5 CORRIDOR IN COWLITZ COUNTY-GREATER VANCOUVER AREA-
SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS-
552 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT. TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL
REACH NEAR 107 THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST AREAS...PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...THOUGH DROPPING...ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 95 TO AROUND 100. TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL DROP
TO THE 85 TO 95 RANGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
$$

Very hard for those living there, and the environment. Why?

The answer shows up in our satellite image from this morning. The Polar Orbiting Satellite swaths here show hot dry air with a strong upper-level high pressure ridge extending north along the West Coast from the subtropics all the way to the Arctic Ocean.

State-of-the-science numerical forecast models are showing this ridge weakening over the west coast of OR/WA, but still remaining the dominant feature over British Columbia, Eastern Alaska, and Northwest Canada even out at day 7.

Good news for those in western WA and OR, some relief from the heat is coming.

Things are not so rosy in interior Alaska as well. Fairbanks has only picked up .04 of rain since June 28. With none expected the next few days, thanks to the persistent high pressure ridging, July 2009 will rank as the driest July ever and driest summer month ever, since records began in 1904.

High pressure ridging has been dominating our interior Alaska weather since late June. First, directly over the area, then gradually moving north. Then, over the past 10 days, re-building north, to our east over Canada, up the Pacific coast. Putting the central and eastern interior under a very warm southerly chinook flow.

Our trees have been gradually showing the effect over the last few weeks. Especially in the hills, where there is no real water table for our shallow-rooted trees to draw moisture from. The reason they are shallow-rooted is that historically, July and August are our wettest months, with 2 or more inches of rain, on the average each month. And with average highs of 65-73, evapotranspiration demands aren't usually overwhelming for our Taiga, or Boreal Forest, stands of Birch/Aspen/Balsam Poplar, and White/Black Spruce. With our short summers, and only 5-6 month snow-free period, historically, the trees usually were able to obtain their necessary moisture in the top few feet of the ground. The small hardwoods adjacent to A.P.R.'s Chena Ridge Research Centre are showing the stress. The smaller willows, birch, and aspen are turning yellow from drought stress, while the leaves on the larger ones are wilting. The spruce are similarly drying, but are not quite as obvious.

That also means we are having a real fire season this year in Interior Alaska, up to near 2 million acres burned already. After three slow seasons in 2006/07/08, conditions are back to bring above average (910,000 acres 1955-2008) wildfire activity.

With another week or longer of dry weather, and records being smashed in Fairbanks, and other interior locations, we'll likely get to at least 3 million, maybe 3.5, before things slow down by September. Due to the longer nights, and lower sun angles,

shortening the daily burning period, even if rain continues to be meager.

Thus, our fire danger chart, left, shows most of the central and eastern interior in the Very High to Extreme fire danger category.

What a difference one year makes. One year ago at this time, record heavy rains across the interior brought flooding to many areas in the Central and Eastern Interior.

Including here in Fairbanks, to the left.

And, Nenana, above, which is 45 miles downstream (west) along the Tanana River from Fairbanks.

Somewhat ironic, since I was driving and working along these very same streets from July 08-July 22, providing weather forecast support to one of the larger fires in the state. The Minto Flats South fire, which is currently up to around 300,000 acres, and was about 10 miles west of Nenana.

This picture of a plume on the south edge of the fire burning at 930 pm in the evening of July 21, I thought particulary interesting. The plume extends up to at least 20,000 feet. Smoke from the Wood River fire, 27 miles south of Fairbanks, is streaming over in an east flow aloft, and capping the plume from the Minto Flats fire. Southeast winds interacting with the inflow winds over the intense fire in crowning black spruce (flame lengths over 80 feet), induced a rotation in the entire column. Eerie, yet beautiful... almost like a living, breathing creature.

This means that our graph of Alaska seasonal wildfire acreages, left, will have another spike on it, for 2009, to at least 3 million. Or about halfway up the chart. What is that saying? That higher acreage years have been occurring more often, and have been larger, since about 1986. Which agrees with data from the western lower 48 states as well, where similar trends are occurring.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/313/5789/940

How will this keep playing out? Well, that's one thing being examined heavily at the University of Alaska. Climate change research focused on the Arctic is very prominent here. http://www.acia.uaf.edu/

In fact, my thesis project for my M.S. in Forestry/Natural Resources Management, involves using a linear regression model relating upper-air weather parameters that estimate seasonal wildfire acreage accumulations in interior Alaska (Rsq=.80), with climate change modeling outputs of those weather parameters. To estimate seasonal wildfire acreages in 2060 and 2080. The results aren't in yet, but I think it's safe to say that the trend line on our actual acreage chart will continue it's upward trajectory. Which translates to higher, more frequent spikes. Thus, acting as a "Positive Feedback" mechanism, adding more CO2 to the atmosphere, adding to warming already occurring, which will melt more permafrost, lead to greater wildfires, producing more warming, etc..." Scary. What will stop it?

So far, all of the fires are far enough from the major population centres to only merit occasional fly-overs, or focused small groups of fire-fighting operations around a few cabins or timber allotments.

Meaning, they are just nuisances so far to us in Fairbanks. The daily plume from the now 80,000 acre Wood River Fire (started by lighting 7/12) pushes toward Fairbanks every afternoon from it's source 27 miles south of town. Sometimes providing dramatic shading, and the usual smell and haze. All depending on the direction of the prevailing winds.

So, I may have to go out and work on another fire, if one grows a great deal, in our continuing dry weather, and threatens designated resources or population areas. Fortunately, I will be able to fast-pack the Chilkoot Trail with my friend Erik Hursh this weekend, in near-perfect conditions, thanks to the high pressure ridge.

There is a "cutoff low-pressure system" forecast to develop off the Northern Calif. and OR coasts early next week. Those are capable of generating intense lightning events in those normally thunderstorm-scarce areas. Large and persistent fires (because of the incredible fuel loadings of the big trees) sometimes occur there which can last until November. So, it's possible that very large fires will be developing there next week as well. Especially since the preceding heat will have really dried things out.

The A.P.R. staff traveled to Denali NP Tuesday (7/28), to give a presentation to tourists in the park. About park weather and Denali weather for climbing. Which went very well, there was great interest in the park climate record, and climbing weather on the Mountain.

Afterward, we stopped at the Mt. Healy trail, that goes steeply up one of the fore-ranges of the main crest of the Alaska Range. The trail is quite steep most of the way. However, with our strong south flow aloft, being on the west portion of the upper ridge, strong chinook winds, funneled through the Nenana River Canyon, were blowing. You can see the picture above, the air is clear, thanks to those winds, but the Minto Flats fire, 40 miles north, is cooking, in the bright sun, and broad southeast flow of wind (maybe 10-15 mph). This plume easily extends 20-25 thousand feet up in the atmosphere.

We thought it highly ironic, and interesting, to see one of our coal plants, which burns low-grade lignite coal mined in the vicinity with the large fire in the background. What do you think? And interesting too, because this valley, that Healy is in, is incredibly windy, because of terrain-channeling (like Altamont and Beaumont pases in California) . Large-scale wind-power generation would be very successful there.

Since we didn't start our hike until 9 pm, we only hiked up for about 90 minutes. But the evening light and view was quite grand.

Mattie and Homer were greatly enjoying themselves, note their long shadows. The wind in most areas, wasn't too bad, 20-40 mph. Tolerable. And it was fairly warm, 65 degrees.

However, as we got higher, the winds became stronger. Finally, at a saddle to a higher ridge, probably around 5000-5500 feet (the start was about 1800 feet), sustained winds were south 50-60 mph. We snapped this self-timer picture as we and the camera were blowing around. Mattie's ears are pretty comical in the wind.

But this was too much, since I was in my Chaco sandles, I didn't want to get blown off the trail. We headed down.

Homer surprised a 20-something hippie-type dude coming up the trail. He shreaked and jumped, when he came upon our veteran editorial assistant, thinking him a wild wolf as he rounded the corner. Homer took it all in stride though. He's used to it. Being between .25 and .50 wolf (I need to do a background check), visually, he is quite striking. But as gentle and kind as any canine I've ever seen. We all laughed though, once we met up, and I explained the situation.

Cheers.