to reaching climatic "tipping points", when positive feedbacks in the system, such as melting sea ice, melting/thawing permafrost (releasing even more CO2/Methane), and wildfire CO2 emissions, create warming that is overwhelming and unstoppable? Due to our accelerating emissions of CO2 and Methane from fossil fuel combustion.
As you may or may not be aware, Russia has been enduring it's worst-ever measured drought/summer heat wave this year. Which has accelerated wildfire outbreaks west of the Urals in it's more heavily populated European section, including even near Moscow. The normal mortality rate in Moscow has more than doubled, over the past month, due to the heat, and dangerously unhealthy air quality.
The Russian wheat harvest is now expected to sustain a loss of at least one-third, because of this. And for this reason, their government has suspended wheat exports, so that there will be an adequate supply for their own population. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/08/06-7
The price of wheat has risen 88 percent on the international grain market so far this year, as a result, since Russia is the globe's fourth largest exporter of it.
What's been causing the severe drought/heat wave in Russia? The same thing that causes our droughts/bad fire seasons here in Alaska. Anomalously strong and persistent high pressure ridging, which pushes very warm air northward from the tropics and subtropics, to the high latitudes. This is the pattern that in the middle and high latitudes that has been increasing over the past few decases with global warming, as more heat is pushed northward, in order to try and maintain a global heat balance. I found this image to be incredible, from 01 August. This is a 500 millibar analysis (the height at which the pressure equals 500 mb, which is a function of the airmass temperature, usually between 5500 and 5800 metres in summer) overlain with the temperature at the 850 mb level (roughly 1500 metres).
This incredibly strong high pressure ridge (on the far right portion of the image), extending well north beyond 65 degrees north (Moscow is at about 56 degrees N latitude), has 850 mb temperatures exceeding 20C north to just past 60 deg. N. The highest-ever measured 850 mb temperature in Interior Alaska has been 19C. This is why surface high temperatures in European Russia have been 30-40C (86-104F) for several weeks this summer, 8-15C above average (the average high temperature in July in Moscow is a comfortable 24C, or 75F), and why there has been very little rainfall. Here in Alaska, after an early start to our fire season in May and early June, abundant rainfall from mid-June on slowed things down considerably. Yet we still burned 536,000 hectares (1.19 million acres) in the state, which is above the 1955-2009 mean of 405,000 hectares.
At the same time, the heaviest monsoon rains ever recorded this summer, in tropical Pakistan, have killed thousands, and affected 14 million people in that country. Global climate change modeling has been suggesting that more extremes of heavy precipitation will also be occurring, as warmer temperatures enable the atmosphere to hold more water vapour, which can then fall as heavier rainfall, when weather patterns permit.
Then, there are these three facts to consider:
1. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the planet has just come through the warmest decade, the warmest 12 months, the warmest six months, and the warmest April, May, and June on record.
2. A “staggering” new study from Canadian researchers has shown that warmer seawater has reduced phytoplankton, the base of the marine food chain, by 40% since 1950. All marine life depends, ultimately, on the health and availability of phytoplankton.
3. Nine nations have so far set their all-time temperature records in 2010, including Russia (111 degrees), Niger (118), Sudan (121), Saudi Arabia and Iraq (126 apiece), and Pakistan, which also set the new all-time Asia record in May: a hair under 130 degrees.
There is also this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-10900235
7 August 2010 Last updated at 13:23 ET 
Thousands of icebergs calve from Greenland's glaciers every year.
The block of ice separated from the Petermann Glacier, on the north-west coast of Greenland.
It is the largest Arctic iceberg to calve since 1962, said Prof Andreas Muenchow of the University of Delaware.
The ice could become frozen in place over winter or escape into the waters between Greenland and Canada.
Huge ice sheet breaks from Greenland glacier
Thousands of icebergs calve from Greenland's glaciers every year.A giant sheet of ice measuring 260 sq km (100 sq miles) has broken off a glacier in Greenland, according to researchers at a US university.
It is the largest Arctic iceberg to calve since 1962, said Prof Andreas Muenchow of the University of Delaware.
The ice could become frozen in place over winter or escape into the waters between Greenland and Canada.
If the iceberg moves south, it could interfere with shipping, Prof Muenchow said.
Cracks in the Petermann Glacier had been observed last year and it was expected that an iceberg would calve from it soon. The glacier is 1,000 km (620 miles) south of the North Pole.
A researcher at the Canadian Ice Service detected the calving from Nasa satellite images taken early on Thursday, the professor said. The images showed that Petermann Glacier lost about one-quarter of its 70km-long (43-mile) floating ice shelf. There was enough fresh water locked up in the ice island to "keep all US public tap water flowing for 120 days," said Prof Muenchow.
He said it was not clear if the event was due to global warming.
Patrick Lockerby, a UK engineer with a background in material science, told the BBC he had predicted the calve on 22 July, posting images on the science2.0 website.
"I was watching the floating ice tongue wedged between two walls of a fjord for three quarters if its length with the last part at the outlet end wedged by sea ice. I thought once the sea ice was gone, the pressure would be too great and the tongue would calve."
He said there could be a beneficial outcome if the calving drifts to block the Nares Strait and effectively prevents the loss of more ice from the Lincoln Sea.
The first six months of 2010 have been the hottest on record globally, scientists have said.
All of these things occurring, right now as you read this, are exactly what climate change modeling has been suggesting will occur. More extremes of heat waves and wildfires, heavy precipitation and flooding, and glacial breakup in Greenland, and the northern fringes of Antarctica. Since this part of the Petermann Glacier in Greenland was a floating ice shelf, it is not expected to cause any global sea level rises. However, as more of this, and other glaciers on Greenland's fringe melt further back, and land-based ice surges into the sea, this will soon be occurring.
Because we are losing our Arctic summer sea ice. Once this occurs more fully, the Arctic Ocean waters will absorb far greater amounts of heat than they do currently, which will be transported in the air above, and through ocean currents to the surrounding lands and glaciers throughout the region. Which will cause even more melting. In addition, the Arctic sea ice will take longer to form each year, forming later, freezing thinner, and melting earlier.
This image is from two days ago, showing the current state of the Arctic Ocean's sea ice. The colours of blue and green correspond to just 20-30 percent ice coverage, while yellow and red is 50-70 percent, and the purple shades, 80 percent or more. What this is showing, is that a large area of broken ice and water with just 20-50 percent ice coverage is now reaching north from Canada, to the North Pole, and south, across the other side, toward western Siberia. This has never been observed before! And, there are six more weeks, at least, of melting left, in the warm season.
So, let's sum things up, as they are currently occurring. European Russia is experiencing it's worst ever drought and heat wave, causing massive wildfire outbreaks, and high death rates in Moscow and other cities from the heat and dangerous air quality. The cutback in grain exports from Russia, due to the drought, has already raised wheat prices 88 percent. This in and of itself will cause suffering and even some starvation in poorer countries. Pakistan is experiencing it's worst ever flooding, with a large percentage of it's population being affected. Globally, the past decade, year, six months, and spring have been the warmest ever recorded, with many countries also setting extreme heat records. Glaciers in the Arctic are losing large portions of ice, and the Arctic sea ice is melting in a way never seen before. With more and even worse droughts expected in the coming few decades, and global population continuing to increase to over 7, and eventually, 8 billion, what will the effect be on the global food supply?
It is our estimation then, here at the Alaska Progressive Review, that we are currently pushing through the "tipping points" leading to the positive feedbacks previously mentioned, that will then produce enough warming that will melt much of Greenland's ice, in the coming decades. The "developed" capitalist countries, whose energy policies are dictated by the transnational fossil-fuel energy corporations, are not going to do anything, until it is much too late. Within 30 years, we will be up to at least 450-500 ppm CO2, up from the current 390 ppm. Remember, from previous research we described, the last time atmospheric CO2 concentration was 390 ppm, global sea levels were 5-8 metres higher than they are now. What will they be when we reach 500 ppm? That's the reality. Sorry for the bad news, but that is really what we are seeing.
Cheers.
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