The immortal words and music from Bob Dylan's "Subterranean Homesick Blues"
/play#Bob+Dylan:Subterranean+Homesick+Blues:10284:s324959.8165829.4657974.0.1.54%2Cstd_2eb348c320e27e6b72a32268d9f36da4
"Johnny’s in the basement
Mixing up the medicine
I’m on the pavement
Thinking about the government
The man in the trench coat
Badge out, laid off
Says he’s got a bad cough
Wants to get it paid off
Look out kid
It’s somethin’ you did
God knows when
But you’re doin’ it again
You better duck down the alley way
Lookin’ for a new friend
The man in the coon-skin cap
By the big pen
Wants eleven dollar bills
You only got ten
Mixing up the medicine
I’m on the pavement
Thinking about the government
The man in the trench coat
Badge out, laid off
Says he’s got a bad cough
Wants to get it paid off
Look out kid
It’s somethin’ you did
God knows when
But you’re doin’ it again
You better duck down the alley way
Lookin’ for a new friend
The man in the coon-skin cap
By the big pen
Wants eleven dollar bills
You only got ten
Maggie comes fleet foot
Face full of black soot
Talkin’ that the heat put
Plants in the bed but
The phone’s tapped anyway
Maggie says that many say
They must bust in early May
Orders from the D.A.
Look out kid
Don’t matter what you did
Walk on your tiptoes
Don’t try “No-Doz”
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
Face full of black soot
Talkin’ that the heat put
Plants in the bed but
The phone’s tapped anyway
Maggie says that many say
They must bust in early May
Orders from the D.A.
Look out kid
Don’t matter what you did
Walk on your tiptoes
Don’t try “No-Doz”
Better stay away from those
That carry around a fire hose
Keep a clean nose
Watch the plain clothes
You don’t need a weatherman
To know which way the wind blows..."
Something interesting happened in Alaska last week, from the 22nd to the 24th of November, 2010.
Alaska experienced it's most widespread-ever, since regular weather observations began (around 1915), freezing rain episode.
At one time, on monday the 22nd of November, for three consecutive hours, freezing rain was being reported from Anchorage, north through Fairbanks, and all the way north to Barrow, on the Arctic Coast, at 70 degrees N latitude! Some even made it as far east as Prudhoe Bay that day. This had never been observed before, this widespread of a fast, large winter warm-up, with large amounts of rain. This link is for a Fairbanks Daily News-Miner story about it:
Fairbanks received just about an inch of rain on the three days of monday-wednesday, 22-24 November, while Anchorage picked up .85 of an inch, or 22 mm. Temperatures stayed at or below freezing at both cities on the 22nd, but warmed up to 33-37F (+1 to +3C) on the following two days. But since temperatures throughout South-Central and Interior Alaska had been well below freezing for the past 10 days or more, the ground and most surfaces remained below freezing on these days, so ice accumulations continued on roads.
On Monday the 22nd, Anchorage and Fairbanks were practically both shut-down, the roads were solid sheets of ice, even the busiest highways. It took your lead author an hour to get across Anchorage that day from the Chugach Front Research Centre, to near the airport. Traffic, much lighter than usual, was flowing at 30-35 kph (20 mph). Thank goodness most people were driving sensibly, or not at all, but there were still many cars in ditches.
What caused this unusual and unprecedented weather occurrence?
The usual pattern that brings anomalous warmth to Alaska. High pressure ridging centered just to the west of the center of the state, with a south to southwest flow aloft, moving vast amounts of warmer air northward. In this case, all the way from 30-35 N, the subtropics, north past the Arctic Circle.
Around the top of the high pressure ridge, a strong moist flow of subtropical air containing abundant moisture (basically, a warm front) remained nearly stationary over the center of Alaska for over 48 hours. This infrared satellite image on the 22nd shows that moisture feed around the high pressure ridge, over the center of the state. Average high temperatures during 22-24 November period were as much as 17C (30F) above average in South-Central, Interior, and some of Arctic Alaska.
This high-pressure ridging pattern is how heat is transported northward to the higher latitudes, in winter, which have a net loss of energy to space, due to the low sun angles, and weak solar surface heating, since the Northern Hemisphere is tilted 23.5 degrees away from the sun by late December. Otherwise, the higher latitudes surface temperatures would plummet to unfathomable and unsurvivable depths.
The chart below, from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a large globally-undertaken collaboration, shows the average temperature rises over the Arctic regions up until 2005 (the trend continues, 2010 was the warmest ever year, measured globally). http://amap.no/acia/
What this is showing, is that there has been a roughly 1C average Arctic warming since around 1980. During this time, high pressure ridging episodes have been getting stronger, and more persistent. Bringing such events as the record Russian drought and wildfires of Summer 2010, the record heat and wildfire fatalities in Australia in February, 2009,
http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/03/warning-lights-are-flashing-australia.html and the record-largest wildfire season in Alaska in 2004These events, and the Alaska freezing rain event last week, were caused by anomalously strong and persistent high pressure ridging. Transporting large amounts of warmth poleward. These happened with 1C of average warming, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations rose from around 310 ppm in 1980, to 390 ppm in 2010. What do you think will happen as atmospheric CO2 concentrations reach 550-600 ppm by 2070, and Arctic average temperatures rise 3-5C (or more, if permafrost melting methane release becomes a significant positive feedback)? Will events like these become stronger and more persistent? As for us, it's pretty clear, YOU DON'T NEED A WEATHERMAN (or atmospheric physicist, or climatologist) to know which way this wind will be blowing.
MATTIE'S FOURTH BREAK
The Alaska Progressive Review headed over to Valdez for the Thanksgiving holiday to celebrate with our good friend Erik Hursh and his family. And then do a short ski trip into a cabin the Wrangell-St.Elias National Park.
We arrived in Valdez after leaving Anchorage in heavy snow, temperatures were finally falling after the epic freezing rain event earlier in the week. Valdez was calm and sunny when we arrived Thanksgiving afternoon. Bridalveil fall, in the amazingly sharp and rocky Keystone Canyon, about 20 KM northeast of Valdez,was frozen in all it's glory.
The next day, we all headed north to near Copper Center, to Erik's cabin on the bluff above the Copper River, to prepare for our ski trip. The view in Valdez, just as we left, was picture-perfect. So amazing how much snow accumulates in the mountains around it, that only rise to 1000-1830 metres (3280 to 6000 ft).
For our ski trip, Erik and I decided we would ski into the Nugget Creek Cabin, which is only 24 km (15 miles) in from the trailhead just off the McCarthy road, 24 KM east of Chitina, along a fairly gently sloping trail. Which leads you to a cabin at the foot of breathtaking 4996 metre (16387 ft) Mt. Blackburn, one of the dormant Wrangell volcanoes.
Unfortunately, I have no pictures of the trip, because Erik and I both forgot our cameras. Which was not so bad, as when we came out, it was in snow with poor visibility. We will return there in March, for a few sunny days, and take loads of pictures, as from the cabin, you can hop on the Kuskulana glacier, and view around the base of Blackburn.
Unfortunately for us, the freezing rain event earlier in the week had left at least a cm or two crust of ice on top of 10 cm or so of powder snow. Breaking trail for the 24 KM in this was at least twice as difficult and time-consuming as would normally be. In fact, this breaking through the crust, actually tore up the overboots on my classic ski boots.
So we didn't make it into the cabin until around 5pm, as it was getting dark, the temperature dropping to -18C (0F). Toward the last KM or so, I actually groaned to Erik, "are you sure there is a cabin up here?", since it was so slow and arduous. But we were rewarded for our efforts. This cabin is clean, spacious, has a new woodstove (and decent wood supply, very important!), and cushions on the bed planks. In no time at all we had a good fire going, were warming up and drying out, and melting more drinking water.
After a nice restful, warm evening in that cozy cabin, the next day, Sunday, dawned cloudy and breezy, with light snow falling, as we left. It had also warmed up to -13C (8F), which was nice. We left at 1000 and made much better time, since the trail was broken by us, the day before. It only took us 4 hours to return, with much less effort. But the return trip was not uneventful.
Your intrepid assistant editor Mattie had three near-death experiences before this.
The first when she and I were almost run over in 1/08 when a large truck killed our other companion Kiana, a beautiful 2-year old sled dog, on Chena Ridge Road in Fairbanks (it is unknown why and who did this, the truck never stopped or slowed, and was easily going 120 KPH).
The second when she almost bled to death two months later, after stepping on a sharp object. Her slow arterial hemorrhaging from a knee laceration almost proved fatal, I got her in for surgery just in time.
Then the third, was her three-day bum trip at Chitina in 7/09, http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/07/copper-river-red-blues-or-matties-bum.html
when she ran off and got lost, searching far and wide for me (as I was for her!), while I was dipnetting. When I got her back, from some people that found her, she had lost several kg and had torn and bloody paws. Since your lead author has had five near-death experiences in my lifetime, it has to be said, we certainly have much in common!
Her fourth then, was this past sunday, the 28th of November, as we all were returning from the Nugget Creek Cabin. Only about 8km from the trailhead, on a fairly straight flat stretch of trail, 2KM into the park (there is a sign marking the boundary), Mattie lurched off the trail and lunged at a piece of meat at the base of a small black spruce, just about two metres off the trail. She got caught in an unmarked lynx snare, similar to this. She lunged backward and screamed as it pulled taught and began strangling her, the more she resisted.
I saw this happen right in front of me, so I threw off my skis and poles and yelled to Erik behind me "s..t this could be fatal!". Fortunately I was able to loose the snare off the tree, so it wouldn't keep tightening on Mattie. Then Erik was able to loosen it on her neck by bending the fine wire near the clamp, which released the pressure. So we slipped it off. Had we not been within a minute or two of her, she would have strangled herself. Inside the National Park, on a recreational trail.
She seemed to be none the worse for the wear, and I've been observing her since, she seems her usual energetic self. I'm so glad Erik and I were able to save her!
It was a nice drive back to Anchorage on the Glenn Highway the following day. Homer and Mattie were both tired from plowing through the crusty snow/ice the previous two days. The Copper River Basin picked up a beautiful 8-14cm of fresh snow the day/night before, and it was blowing in a cold -18C wind. I always love the views of the incredibly steep, rough, glaciated 2000-3500m peaks of the Chugach mountains from this road. The departing snowstorm and strong northeast winds left beautiful light and shading through the peaks. Cheers.
