IN A TIME OF UNIVERSAL DECEIT...TELLING THE TRUTH BECOMES A REVOLUTIONARY ACT

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wicked of men will do the most wicked of things for the greatest good of everyone." John Maynard Keynes

" Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital; that, in fact, capital is the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital and deserves much the higher consideration" Abraham Lincoln

Friday, April 13, 2012

DRIVEN OUT [and] BREAK-UP FLIGHT

http://www.myspace.com/video/vid/36228074
Driven out by thieves
I watch them pillage the planet
Fueled by a fattening breeze
Trees fall to the hatchet

We're chopping against the grain
Our spirits in a vacuum
Sadly ignore the pain
The end arrives, we all lose
We all lose
I hope it comes, it comes, it comes around

Driven out
Holding out
Day by day survival
Castaways have silent lives
With a strength to rival you

So now I'm driving in my car
I used to be able to walk this far
Now I turn on the light
I used to be able to sleep at night

I'm cooking with microwaves
To warm up food that's not seen the soil
Plugged into my TV
Yeah, I'm used to the lies they're telling me
They're telling me
I hope it comes, it comes, it comes around

Driven out
Holding out
Day by day survival
All castaways have silent lives
With a strength to rival
Driven out
Holding out
Driven out
Holding out
With a strength to rival you

So now I'm hoping that we'll find
More to life than meets the eye
Can we escape the grind?
Live a life that's more worthwhile?
Get rid of this empty pride
Let's pull our foolishness inside
Debate in a turning tide
Until then, we all hide
We all hide
I hope it comes, it comes, it comes around

Driven out
Holding out
Day by day survival oh
Castaways have silent lives
With a strength to rival
Driven out
Holding out
Yeah, it could take up your best time
Driven out
Holding out
With a strength to rival you
Rival you, oohoo

This was one of your lead editor's favourite songs back in the day, "Driven Out", by THE FIXX, from their "Calm Animals", 1989 CD release. Even then this band was onto our greed-based society and it's pathologies, that is destroying the Natural World, and which will end up destroying civilisation as we know it, if it is not changed in the next few decades.

It's not just the U.S. that has always been this way, and is becoming even increasingly more so, but the global corporatocracy/financial sector/military-industrial complex, is now bent on forcing many of the countries in Europe to forego most, or all, of their social benefits, in "Austerity" drives, in order that obscene profits can continue, at the expense of working people. No one knows this better, and can deliver a penetrating analysis of this situation, than Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during the Reagan administration. He has since changed his viewpoints on national and global political issues, and is now quite outspoken. This article lays out his latest assessment on the dismal state of the national and global economic/financial system.
http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/05/21/bet-on-collapse/

Recovery or Collapse?

Bet on Collapse

by PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS
The US financial system and, probably, the financial system of Europe, like the police, no longer serves a useful social purpose.

In the US the police have proven themselves to be a greater threat to public safety than private sector criminals. I just googled “police brutality” and up came 183,000,000 results.

The cost to society of the private financial system is even higher. Writing in CounterPunch (May 18), Rob Urie reports that two years ago Andrew Haldane, executive Director for Financial Stability at the Bank of England (the UK’s version of the Federal Reserve) said that the financial crisis, now four years old, will in the end cost the world economy between $60 trillion and $200 trillion in lost GDP. If Urie’s report is correct, this is an astonishing admission from a member of the ruling elite. Try to get your mind around these figures. The US GDP, the largest in the world, is about 15 trillion. What Haldane is telling us is that the financial crisis will end up costing the world lost real income between 4 and 13 times the size of the current Gross Domestic Product of the United States. This could turn out to be an optimistic forecast.

In the end, the financial crisis could destroy Western civilization.

Even if Urie’s report, or Haldane’s calculation, is incorrect, the obvious large economic loss from the financial crisis is still unprecedented. The enormous cost of the financial crisis has one single source–financial deregulation. Financial deregulation is likely to prove to be the mistake that destroys Western civilization. While we quake in our boots from fear of “Muslim terrorists,” it is financial deregulation that is destroying us, with help from jobs offshoring. Keep in mind that Haldane is a member of the ruling elite, not a critic of the system like myself, Michael Hudson, or Pam Martens, to menion some CounterPunch contributors.)

Financial deregulation has had dangerous and adverse consequences. Deregulation permitted financial concentration that produced “banks too big to fail,” thus requiring the general public to absorb the costs of the banks’ mistakes and reckless gambling.

Deregulation permitted banks to leverage a small amount of capital with enormous debt in order to maximize return on equity, thereby maximizing the instability of the financial system and the cost to society of the banks’ bad bets.

Deregulation allowed financial institutions to sweep aside the position limits on speculators and to dominate commodity markets, turning them into a gambling casino and driving up the prices of energy and food. [this is why gasoline in Anchorage, AK has now risen to $4.44 per gallon, in spite of the price of crude oil having fallen, eds..]

Deregulation permits financial institutions to sell naked shorts, which means to sell a company’s stock or gold and silver bullion that the seller does not possess into the market in order to drive down the price.

The informed reader can add more items to this list.

The dollar in its role as world reserve currency is the source of Washington’s power. It allows Washington to control the international payments system and to exclude from the financial system those countries that do not do Washington’s bidding. It allows Washington to print money with which to pay its bills and to purchase the cooperation of foreign governments or to fund opposition within those countries whose governments Washington is unable to purchase, such as Iran, Russia, and China. If the dollar was not the world reserve currency and actually reflected its true depreciated value from the mounting US debt and running of the printing press, Washington’s power would be dramatically curtailed.

The US dollar has come close to its demise several times recently. In 2011 the dollar’s value fall as low as 72 Swiss cents. Investors seeking safety for the value of their money flooded into Swiss francs, pushing the value of the franc so high that Switzerland’s exports began to suffer. The Swiss government responded to the inflow of dollars and euros seeking refuge in the franc by declaring that it would in the future print new francs to offset the inflows of foreign currency in order to prevent the rise in the value of the franc. In other words, currency flight from the US and Europe forced the Swiss to inflate in order to prevent the continuous rise in the exchange value of the Swiss currency.
Prior to the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the dollar was also faced with a run-up in the value of the euro as foreign central banks and OPEC members shifted their reserves into euros from dollars. The euro was on its way to becoming an alternative reserve currency. However, Goldman Sachs, whose former employees dominate the US Treasury and financial regulatory agencies and also the European Central Bank and governments of Italy and, indirectly, Greece, helped the Greek government to disguise its true deficit, thus deceiving the private European banks who were purchasing the bonds of the Greek government. Once the European sovereign debt crisis was launched, Washington had an interest in keeping it going, as it sends holders of euros fleeing into “safe” dollars, thus boosting the exchange value of the dollar, despite the enormous rise in Washington’s own debt and the doubling of the US money supply.

Last year gold and silver were rapidly rising in price (measured in US dollars), with gold hitting $1,900 an ounce and on its way to $2,000 when suddenly short sales began dominating the bullion markets. The naked shorts of gold and silver bullion succeeded in driving the price of gold down $350 per ounce from its peak. Many informed observers believe that the reason Washington has not prosecuted the banksters for their known financial crimes is that the banksters serve as an auxiliary to Washington by protecting the value of the dollar by shorting bullion and rival currencies.

What happens if Greece exits the EU on its own or by the German boot? What happens if the other EU members reject German Chancellor Merkel’s austerity, as the new president of France promised to do? If Europe breaks apart, do more investors flee to the doomed US dollar?

Will a dollar bubble become the largest bubble in economic history?

When the dollar goes, interest rates will escalate, and bond prices will collapse. Everyone who sought safety in US Treasuries will be wiped out.

We should all be aware that such outcomes are not part of the public debate.

Recently Bill Moyers interviewed Simon Johnson, formerly chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and currently professor at MIT. It turns out that deregulation, which abolished the separation of investment banks from commercial banks, permitted Jamie Dimon’s JPMorganChase to gamble with federally insured deposits. Despite this, Moyers reports that Republicans remain determined to kill the weak Dodd-Frank law and restore full deregulation.

Simon Johnson says: “I think it [deregulation] is a recipe for disaster.” The problem is, Johnson says, that correct economic policy is blocked by the enormous donations banks make to political campaigns. This means Wall Street’s attitudes and faulty risk models will result in an even bigger financial crisis than the one from which we are still suffering. And it will happen prior to recovery from the current crisis.

Johnson warns that the Republicans will distract everyone from the real crisis by concocting another “crisis” over the debt ceiling.

Johnson says that “a few people, particularly in and around the financial system, have become too powerful. They were allowed to take a lot of risk, and they did massive damage to the economy — more than eight million jobs lost. We’re still struggling to get back anywhere close to employment levels where we were before 2008. And they’ve done massive damage to the budget. This damage to the budget is long lasting; it undermines the budget when we need it to be stronger because the society is aging. We need to support Social Security and support Medicare on a fair basis. We need to restore and rebuild revenue, revenue that was absolutely devastated by the financial crisis. People need to understand the link between what the banks did and the budget. And too many people fail to do that.”

Consequently, Johnson says, the banksters continue to receive mega-benefits while imposing enormous social costs on society.

Few Americans and no Washington policymakers understand the dire situation. They are too busy hyping a non-existent recovery and the next war. Statistician John Williams reports that when correctly measured as a cost of living indicator, which the CPI  [consumer price index, eds..] no longer is, the current inflation rate in the US is 5 to 7 percentage points higher than the officially reported rate, as every consumer knows. The unemployment rate falls because, and only because, people unable to find jobs drop out of the labor force and are no longer counted as unemployed. Every informed person knows that the official inflation and unemployment rates are fictions; yet, the presstitute media continue to report the rates with a straight face as fact.

The way the government has rigged the measure of unemployment, it is possible for the US to have a zero rate of unemployment and not a single person employed or in the work force.

The way the government has the measure of inflation rigged, it is possible for your living standing to fall while the government reports that you are better off.

Financial deregulation raises the returns from speculative schemes above the returns from productive activity. The highly leveraged debt and derivatives that gave us the financial crisis have nothing to do with financing businesses. The banks are not only risking their customers’ deposits on gambling bets but also jeopardizing the country’s financial stability and economic future.

With an eye on the approaching dollar crisis, which will wreck the international financial system, the presidents of China, Russia, Brazil, South Africa, and the prime minister of India met last month to discuss forming a new bank that would shield their economies and commerce from mistakes made by Washington and the European Union. The five countries, known as the BRICS, intend to settle their trade with one another in their own currencies and cease relying on the dollar. The fact that Russia, the two Asian giants, and the largest economies in Africa and South America are leaving the dollar’s orbit sends a powerful message of lack of confidence in Washington’s handling of financial matters.

It is ironic that the outcome of financial deregulation in the US is the opposite of what its free market advocates promised. In place of highly competitive financial firms that live or die by their wits alone without government intervention, we have unprecedented financial concentration. Massive banks, “too big to fail,” now send their multi-trillion dollar losses to Washington to be paid by heavily indebted US taxpayers whose real incomes have not risen in 20 years. The banksters take home fortunes in annual bonuses for their success in socializing the “free market” banks’ losses and privatizing profits to the point of not even paying income taxes.

In the US free market economists unleashed avarice and permitted it to run amuck. Will the disastrous consequences discredit capitalism to the extent that the Soviet collapse discredited socialism?  [we think it already has, eds...]

Will Western civilization itself survive the financial tsunami that deregulated Wall Street has produced?

Ironic, isn’t it, that the United States, the home of the “indispensable people,” stands before us as the likely candidate whose government will be responsible for the collapse of the West.

PAUL CRAIG ROBERTS was an editor of the Wall Street Journal and an Assistant Secretary of the U.S. Treasury. His latest book, HOW THE ECONOMY WAS LOST, has just been published by CounterPunch/AK Press. He can be reached through his website

We see nothing to disagree with in Mr. Robert's assessment. This is the kind of society we now have, one in which corporate profits are the driving force behind all policy decisions, no matter the cost to the environment, and people's health and livelihoods. All wars waged by the U.S., with help from other "allied" nations, have been, since World War 2, fundamentally driven by this, and will continue to be so.
That is why it is so important to support movements like Occupy, and others that work for sane, just, and sustainable policies, so we can reform societies into ones in which the health and protection of people, and the environment is the driving force and main priority. For us at the Alaska Progressive Review, we will no longer ever vote for any Democratic (and it goes without saying, Republican) politicians. The Democrats, as witnessed by the Obama Administration, are completely dominated and driven by Wall Street and the global financial elite. Have you ever heard from this administration, any pledges to eradicate poverty, enact massive jobs programmes, and provide support to private enterprise to increase employment? Of course not, and you won't. It will only take massive direct action through demonstrations and strikes, along with gradual replacement of politicians from other parties, to accomplish positive changes.

One thing though at we can't strongly emphasize enough is to move all your financial interests away from the big banks if you can, and into credit unions. PLEASE, PLEASE do this as much as you can, you will be doing yourself, your community, your state, nation, and the World, a world of good by doing so. We certainly understand, for example, with mortgages, it takes thousands of dollars to shift out of one, to another, but if everyone would shift their banking and credit cards and smaller loans out of the greedy, sociopathic large financial institutions, much will be gained.

Almost everyone in Alaska uses an Alaska Airlines credit card for purchases, to gain airline miles, and eventually, first-class upgrades, or free/reduced tickets. But we here at the A.P.R. just couldn't stomach that these are run by one of the worst, greediest, financial institutions in the U.S., Bank of America. We cut ours up in 2009, and shifted over to a credit union credit card (Alaska USA Federal Credit Union, www.alaskausa.org,) which still does offer travel benefits, and sleep much better at night now, knowing we are not supporting that destructive enterprise/system (and the interest rate is much lower).
                              BREAK UP FLIGHT

The Alaska Progressive Review has been on hiatus for the last several weeks, for a few different reasons. Mainly though, your lead editor needed to do an extended family and friends tour in the lower 48. With the added benefit of missing out on the worst of this year's especially messy, slushy, muddy spring break-up/melt out, due to our record-breaking snowpack.

Mattie and Kluane continued their presence here at the Chugach Front Research Centre, whilst I flew to Portland, OR, rented a car, then drove south to San Diego, CA, then north back to Portland, OR, via Missoula, MT, a place I lived in from 1990-98, and really grew to love. Missoula to me epitomises the best in "latte towns", progressively-oriented small cities with public universities. A place where wilderness is always close at hand, yet progressive views and people are in the majority. A place we feel the need to be in occasionally, to get refreshed in a community of like-minded people. Since Alaska, is, as you know, much more conservative overall than say, western Oregon and Washington. Because it has had such a great influence from the military and oil industry from the late 1960s onward. But we're not giving up on Alaska, the beauty and ease of access to true wilderness, makes up for diminished level of progressive culture here. And it is changing, more and more people who appreciate, respect, and feel the necessity of protecting the environment move here every year. Please keep coming, Alaska needs you!

Even though the goal of this trip was to visit family and friends, I always seek and am usually able to to find some little relatively wild place, wherever I am, to run, hike, or bike in. After flying to Portland, OR last month, and spending a week with my mother, we drove down to San Diego via my favourite route, US-395, down the east side of the Sierra Nevada mountains. First we stopped though in Ashland, OR to see our good friend Rebecca Chandler, Homer's mother! She is doing very well there, and Ashland is another refreshing "latte town", home to Southern Oregon State Univ., and the World-famous Shakespeare Festival, which goes on half the year. It is like Missoula, but half-sized. After leaving Ashland, our first evening on the road found us in the little town of Bridgeport, CA, at an elevation of 1951 metres (6400 ft.), on the east slopes of the Sierra. It is a beautiful area, and I had to get out for a good run here.
In the evening, I just ran up US-395 for about 6 KM, then found some dirt tracks up the hills on the east side of the highway. Ascending a few hundred metres through the fragrant pinyon-pine and juniper woodlands here gave me views like this, of the majestic higher Sierra peaks, peeking through the clouds of a late-season winter storm.

The next morning I went for another run, but this time up a dirt road right behind town, as I'd been told by our motel manager that there was a hot spring in the area. Running up just about 6 km from town, I found these gems. Travertine Hot Springs.
There were a few people camping off the road, but when I ran in to the springs in the morning, no one was in them. And they were perfect, probably right around 36-40C, just right for soaking. But I didn't have time for that, so just had to admire them for a few minutes. I'd like to get back here though, hot springs like this, with so few people, are a treasure. And there are vast networks of trails into the eastern Sierra here that we could run, hike, or ski in, for days and days. This area of the Sierra Nevada, being further north from LA, and 2+ hours south of Reno, NV, is much more lightly traveled in, than further north, or south. Which is also why Bridgeport is so small, about 500 souls, and not really growing. It's also a very interesting area physically, the ecosystems rapidly shift from moist high-Sierra coniferous forests at their bases, to the drier Pinyon Pine/Juniper/Sagebrush, heading east and down in elevation, and then to the complete high-desert sagebrush. All in very rocky, steep settings.
Heading further south the next day, we passed through one of my favourite areas anywhere, the eastern slopes of the Sierra from Bridgeport, south through the Owens Valley. In which, the highest Sierra peaks form an amazing sheer 3200 metre (10,500') vertical wall on it's western side. Which never ceases to amaze me and leaves me wanting to also spend more time in, never having had the chance when I was younger, growing up in San Diego. Here from Lone Pine, Mt. Whitney at 4217 metres (14,495'), the highest point in the lower 48, would occasionally peak through the storm clouds, but I couldn't quite catch it. The geology of this area is equally as interesting, full of volcanic fields, some fairly recent and potentially active, east of that sheer eastern spine of the highest Sierra peaks.

Once in San Diego, our great friend Erik Skye came down to join us there, and then drive up to Missoula, MT. In San Diego, Erik and I made sure to run in our favourite wild places there, Mission Trails Regional Park.
Which has many KM of rocky, steep trails in actual wild, undeveloped land about 10-15 miles inland from the coast.
Although this picture had some haze, due to the camera being in my short's pocket for our 2 hr. run, you can see that this century plant was in bloom, here at the end of April, and although the winter's precipitation in San Diego was about 6 cm below average, a good wetting rain had occurred just about 5 days before we arrived. So all the vegetation, even the grasses, were still green and vibrant. And some wildflowers were also still in bloom, very pretty.

Our other favourite area to be in, and especially run in, is the area between Del Mar and La Jolla Shores beach. This encompasses the incredibly beautiful, but small, Torrey Pines State Park. A little gem of preserved southern California wilderness. In which, remnants of a larger ice-age pine forest, remain, able to survive just along these remnants of cool, foggy coast in southern California. Incredibly beautiful views and trails in it. One of our favourite runs is from Torrey Pines S.P., south on the beach, around the cliff corner, then down world-famous clothing-optional and exceptional surfing spot, Blacks Beach. From there, up a steep cliff road to the Univ. of Calif. San Diego (UCSD), down La Jolla Shores Road to the beach, then back. About 23 KM (14 mi.), usually cool with nice breezes, and amazing views.
After which, the cool 15C (60F) waters at Torrey Pines beach beckon, though we don't stay in very long. But it sure does make us feel good after a nice run like that.
One of our favourite times while we were in San Diego was our little excursion east over the coastal range, to the desert, in Anza Borrego State Park, a place which I hadn't visited since I was a teenager.

With my mother, and sister Mischelle, we made it down from the cool 1280 metre (4200') heights of Julian, to the lower desert floor of Borrego Springs, where temperatures were around 35C (95F). But most of the desert cacti were in bloom, so it was a great time to be there. All the more so when Erik and I went for a walk up the Palm Canyon trail, in the blazing early afternoon sun. After only walking up about 15-20 minutes, we came upon what in our view, was an amazing, and rare occurrence.
A herd of about 8 desert bighorn sheep were perched on the rocks just 50 metres in front of us. These sheep are very elusive, and rarely seen by most people. That we had this close of access to them was an incredible gift.
This mother and calf were our favourite of the flock, they really are beautiful, and so at home in these surroundings. Which considering how harsh, hot and dry it is for half the year here is quite a feat. It looks like the mother has some kind of tracking device on it. I'm sure this herd is studied and managed to some degree, to make sure they continue. Long may they.
Look at how well this young male blends in with his surroundings. So that from a distance, when he is still, is undistinguishable from the rocks. Great protection from the mountain lions and coyote here! Their habitat of course, over the last 150 years has been fragmented and developed, so only small areas of true wilderness like this remain. It still amazes us though how fortunate we were to see them, it was very inspiring, and something we'll never forget.

After our time in San Diego came to an end, we decided to head north toward Missoula, MT, but with a detour to Joshua Tree N.P., which Erik had never seen. And which is very interesting, and accessible.
The high desert here at 1000-1500 metres (3280-4900 ft) in Joshua Tree N.P. is very rocky, with huge boulders that offer world-class rock climbing, but that also supports the strange yucca-related Joshua Trees, as well as a Pinyon Pine-Juniper woodland accompanied by a diverse cactus flora in clear areas. Very interesting, and in full bloom during our visit. It was a warm 28-30C (82-86F) day when we arrived, but in the dry conditions there, was quite pleasant. The sun though was quite strong, so our extended hike was late in the afternoon and evening.
In the evening light, the rocks and yellow-flowered "bearded cacti" were quite beautiful. As were these purple-flowered cacti, which were quite plentiful. Even the juniper bushes were full of ripening berries. These are what are "capers" in mediterranean food, as well as the source of flavor for everyone's favourite gins.
The next day we hit the road north, toward Montana. We made it as far north as Filmore, UT on I-15, about halfway up the state, by 9pm. But before that, we had to stop for a run, heading southeast up a small road into the mountains from Parowan, just north of Cedar City. We went for a beatiful 80 min. run from 2000 metres (6460') to 2440 metres (8000') on a Dixie National Forest road, up through pinyon-juniper, eventually to wetter pine/spruce/fir stands which still had some patchy snow in them. Unfortunately, I forgot to bring my camera, but the landscapes here were every bit as beautiful as these around Bryce Canyon, UT, at similar elevations, which I visited in 9/2009. With the amazing orange/red martian-like rocks and contrasting greenery. We also saw two herds of deer on this run, and we both decided, this is a place we could easily live in! Having a colder climate for it's southerly latitude of 38N with winter snow, and even nordic skiing possible in the higher elevations, combined with abundant sun, and summer warmth.
The second day after Joshua Tree N.P. brought us up to Dillon, MT, where we spent the night, before the last push the next day, north and west, to Missoula.

Just before reaching Missoula, we had to pull in to one of my favourite places in that area to run, hike, and ski in. Kootenai Creek Trail, one of several east-west oriented canyons in the Bitterroot Mtns., the north-south oriented mountain range just to the south. All these canyons are 1000-1500 metres deep with steep, rocky slopes at the highest elevations, and large creeks in the canyon bottoms. And thickly forested in the most diverse and beautiful northern Rocky Mountain forest stands of Ponderosa and Lodgepole Pines, Englemann Spruce, Western Larch, Western Red-Cedar, and Grand and Subalpine Firs.
Kootenai Creek was in it's full spring snowmelt high-water flow. Deafening close-up, and with it's extreme drops, probably un-kayakable, except by only the most foolhardy. In my years in Missoula, 1990-98, I never heard of or saw anyone attempt that here.
Another run we had to do, while visiting Missoula, was up the Rattlesnake Creek trail, in the Rattlesnake Wilderness, north of town. An old railbed from mining days gradually rises over 15+ KM in the 1000+ metre deep canyon of Rattlesnake Creek.
Where up to 80 metre tall (262') Western Larch, just coming in to their spring green (the only deciduous conifers in the World) thrive. These trees, where they occur in the Alaska Interior, are known as Tamaracks, only reach about 10 metres height, and are spindly and twisted, growing in the coldest, swampiest areas.

We also decided Erik needed to see Glacier National Park USA, as he'd never been there (we did visit and hike in Glacier NP, BC, in 10/2010). So we did a quick 2-day drive north from Missoula. The Going to the Sun Highway was not opened yet for the season, plows were still breaking open 2100 metre Logan Pass, so we had to stop at the Avalanche Creek parking area, 20 KM west of the pass. But the map showed a beautiful 8 KM trail up to Avalanche Lake, at 1400 metres elevation. So we headed in on that, and were sure glad. This area of northwest Montana gets enhanced upslope precipitation along the spine of the Rockies, and so the forests are almost as moist as the Cascade ones in western Oregon/Washington, with large old-growth Western Red-Cedars, Hemlocks, and Englemann Spruce. From the heavy snowpacks received in these mountains, roaring pure streams cascade steeply down into the valleys below.
Avalanche creek tumbled down in a series of falls, the entire 8 KM along this trail, draining Avalanche Lake.
The higher 2500-3000 metre peaks were still covered in plentiful snow, in the bright, early May sun. When we reached Avalanche Lake, we walked up to the head of it, at which was a large avalanche, probably deposited a few weeks previously. From there, we could see the steep, craggy peaks, still with almost a full winter's accumulation of snow on their upper slopes, such as this one, 2810 metre Little Matterhorn Peak.
After spending five refreshing days in Missoula and western Montana, it was time to head west to Portland, so we could drop off our rental car, and fly back to Anchorage. But first, we had to stop in the Columbia Gorge, for one of my favourite running trails in the lower 48, Eagle Creek. I did a 43 KM (27 mi.) run here in 2007, but Erik and I only had time for about half that much. Eagle Creek is a fast, clear-flowing creek dropping from the Cascade Crest of northern Oregon, 1400 metres down to the Columbia River, much of it a very steep canyon, with dozens of waterfalls (Cascades!). Like this one, part of Punchbowl Falls, which is about 8 km up from the trailhead, in the Gorge. If you are ever in Portland, it is only 65 KM east on I-84, and it has it's own freeway exit. Well worth the time to run or hike in, this trail has rocky sections that have dropoffs of 100-200 metres down sheer cliffs to the roaring creek below. Definitely best when not wet or icy!
Our 2 hour run up this beautiful canyon on the warm May day (it was about 23C, 74F at the bottom) was greatly refreshing, after the long drive from Missoula. We made it back to the Portland area by 6pm, even with this nice run. So worth it. All in all, along with visiting family and friends, the natural areas we were able to be in, made this trip very enjoyable and relaxing. No matter where you go, there is always some peaceful natural setting within reach, which we are always quick to seek out. It always helps us to maintain our balance and bring solace from the pressures of the "civilised" world. Cheers.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

WINTER OF OUR CONTENT - SOUTH-CENTRAL ALASKA 2011-12

Greetings all. Now that spring is here, in South-Central Alaska, time to examine this past winter in some detail, as it has been a very interesting and turbulent one. And to put it in perspective with what has been going on elsewhere in North America, which has been quite alarming, in the central and eastern U.S. and Southern Canada.                            
The Alaska Climate Research Centre, which is part of the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, developed and maintains the informative graphics located at the link above. We'll use these to illustrate just how interesting, and chaotic a winter it has been here in South-Central (and most of Alaska, really), along with a few pictures of ours with some ground truth for you, around the Anchorage/South-Central area. .
This is a graph of all the daily high and low temperatures from the official Anchorage climate station, at the NOAA/National Weather Service office, near the Anchorage/Ted Stevens International Airport. We'll keep these mainly in degrees F since that is how they are presented on this graph. You can see how variable/turbulent the monthly departures from mean temperatures were, which was certainly reflected by the weather we experienced. The monthly departure of temperature averages from the means are as follows:

Nov:  -8.2
Dec:  +4.0
Jan:  -14.6
Feb:  +4.9
Mar:  -5.2               For the winter as a whole (Nov-Mar): -3.8F (-2.3C)

For the rest of Alaska, roughly, these are the monthly mean departures:
                        NOV     DEC     JAN     FEB    MAR
Barrow            -0.9       -1.8       -7.2      +2.0    -8.9
Nome              -9.5       -3.0     -22.5      +3.7    -9.1   
Bethel            -10.2      +4.0     -14.6     +5.0    -5.2    
Fairbanks      -10.8       +8.1    -19.0      +7.2   -6 .9
Juneau            -3.7       +3.9      -1.4      +3.6   -0.7 

For Alaska as a whole then, roughly speaking (since we're using just these 5 stations from around the state), the mean temperature departure for the NOV-MAR period was -3.8F (-2.1C), slightly below average. In the broadest sense, the jet stream stayed further north most of the winter heading mostly into SE Alaska and Canada (but not the lower 48 often enough, as we'll see!). When the jet stream was in that pattern, there were more low pressure systems in the Gulf of Alaska, which were able to move over or near South-Central Alaska, giving us this, the graph below, above average precipitation for most of the winter. Along with the coolest temperatures, in NOV, JAN, and MAR. In DEC and to a lesser extent FEB, the strongest portion of the jet stream directed lows directly over or just to the west of South-Central Alaska, bringing our warmest weather, but also the strong, sometimes damaging windstorms. 

As you may already know, Anchorage recorded it's snowiest recorded winter this season, since 1953, beginning which snowfall has been measured at/near the current location adjacent to the Ted Stevens International Airport, in the SW part of the Anchorage "Bowl". 134.5" (343.9cm) was recorded this season, as of 07 APR, beating the old record of 132.6" (336.8cm), set in 1954-55.
With the generally favourable jet stream configuration, keeping so many more lows further north, moving over or not too far to the east of South-Central Alaska, the snow just kept coming. Even in December, as warm as it was, after a couple strong windstorms with abrupt warming to temperatures as high as 42-48F (7-9C), heavy snowfalls still occurred on the back-sides of them, as cold air swept in behind, after they moved inland. March proved quieter, in this respect, it is usually one of the driest months in most of the state. The extensive seasonal ice cover in the Bering and Chukchi sea keeps weather systems from being able to pick up much moisture if they move over them, heading east or northeast and inland.
As you can see from Anchorage's snow depth plot this winter, we got off to a great start in November, with 10" on the ground by 6th. After the very warm windstorms of 04-08 DEC, heavy snowfalls still continued, so depths increased greatly during that month. We reached our plateau, 36" (91.4cm) the first week in March, then gradually began losing it, as expected, with the longer days of stronger sun, and occasional warm spells. The depth of 23" (58.4cm) as of 07 APR is the greatest for this date in the last 20 years.  

Kluane's travel on the ice was easy and safe, here on the North Fork of Campbell Creek, not too far from the CFRC. Even by 11/10, the ice was building up fast, as temperatures fell below 0F at night occasionally. Here at the base of the Chugach mountains.

Kluane came to us on the last day in October, from Alaska Dog and Puppy Rescue.
http://www.akdogandpuppyrescue.com/  He had been turned into the Anchorage Animal Shelter by a family when he was a year old for being too hyperactive, nipping (but not biting aggresively) and jumping. On his last day before his allotted time was up, AK Dog and Puppy Rescue took him in and found foster homes for him, until we found him, and brought him home. We think he is Bernese Mountain Dog and Husky mix, and will be two years old in mid-May. He is a very smart and happy youngster, still learning the ways of the wilderness, and how to relate to the other species there. Mattie is trying to teach him, but he is still very young and full of energy. He loves to get into water, which is unusual for huskies, and has a very unfortunate drive to try and herd moose, possibly from his Bernese side, which are sheepdogs in Switzerland. 

Sometimes on our cross-country ski or running outings, he thrashed around in the icy streams, then plowed through the already deep powder in mid-November. Becoming the Yeti of the Chugach, or a Dr. Seuss nightmare of a creature.

By the third week in November, we already had over a foot snowdepth near the airport, and almost twice that here on the trails near the CFRC, at the base of the Chugach. We were in cross-country ski heaven, both classic and skate skiing were fantastic all month. And because the rest of North America had warmer than normal conditions and much less snow, Anchorage had the greatest depth of any large city on the continent, and was Snow City N.A.!
December was a stressful month for everyone living in the Anchorage Bowl. The six windstorms, two of which had gusts over 100 mph (the strongest - 118 mph!) along the hillsides, brought abrupt warming, strong winds, periods of rain, then followed by sometimes heavy snow. Air travel was disrupted into Anchorage by periods of severe turbulence and wind shear (the ANC bowl is highly vulnerable to these because of it's unique topography), with some pilots reporting the worst conditions they'd ever experienced in decades-long careers.  
 
 The unprecedented SIX consecutive windstorms from 04-21 DEC were beyond the memory of even the oldest residents of Anchorage. Typically there are just one or two storms of this type per year! There were alot of trees blown down throughout the ANC Bowl, including our bridge across the N. Fk of Campbell Creek, which we use daily on our runs/skis along the base of the Chugach. We had to drag out the trusty APR Stihl chainsaw and do some bridge and trail clearing. Many homes had roof and fence damage, including throughout the neighbourhood that the CFRC is located in. We spent a few sleepless nights worrying about roof and structural damage at the CFRC, as the whole building shook in the stronger gusts and windows rattled. On at least two occasions at the CFRC, gusts of 80 mph (128 kph) occurred.
There was even a grizzly bear still active in early Dec, we saw it's prints occasionally on our runs. A man living on the hillside saw him nosing around their backyard during the strongest storm, a large older male! Quite something to think about. It's possible he was sick or injured, preventing him from being able to hibernate. By the middle of the month, his signs stopped appearing.
Running during the strong windstorms (forget about skiing) was stressful at times, having to worry about the possibility of flying tree limbs, falling trees, and icy conditions. As it was, I fell and broke my hand on 12/20 at the start of this run, during our last DEC windstorm. Slipped on solid slanted ice hiding beneath a small accumulation of wet slush and went down hard onto my right arm/hand running full speed. It was quite painful, and I had to break for a few minutes before resuming, whilst Mattie and Kluane tended to your lead editor.
This polar-orbiting satellite (POES) image shows our strongest DEC windstorm and the pattern causing it very nicely. Strong south jet stream flow caused by a large high pressure ridge over the eastern Pacific is forcing a low pressure system with a deep "atmospheric river" of moisture northward from the subtropics, into Alaska. This storm brought strong winds, and heavy rain, followed by heavy snow, to all of mainland Alaska south of the Alaska Range, from Kodiak east to Yakutat. Whilst all of the SW of Canada and the west of the U.S. stayed mild and dry, underneath that very strong high pressure ridge. A pattern that is occurring more frequently now over western North America, as the globe continues it's rapid warming from our industrial/transportation inputs of CO2 and Methane from fossil-fuel combustion.
After the stress of the first three weeks of DEC, colder, and continued snowy weather brought quieter, more tranquil conditions to South-Central Alaska. Assistant editor Mattie was having to work quite hard on our snowshoe outings up the lower slopes of the Chugach in the deep powder here in early January.
January ended up having a -14.6F departure from average for the monthly mean temperature in Anchorage. This translated to many days at the CFRC and our adjacent trails where after low temperatures of -20 to -25F, highs would only be -15F or so. On this day, we had our coldest skate-ski outing of the winter. It was about -15F at the time of this picture, on the multi-use trail in Hillside Park. Skate skiing becomes very slow below 0F as the glide of the skis decrease. Waxing helps, but still not enough to cause great slowing. It took almost twice as long to do our normal 15K short route this day.
By the middle of the month, up in the higher country of the Chugach, snow depths were over twice what they were down lower in the city. Here near the Williwaw Lakes, which we skied into in early JAN, the tops of the 8-15' mountain hemlocks are barely visible. Whilst the frozen lakes are buried.
Contrast that to how the area looked just over three months previously, in late September. On a calm, cool, exceedingly rare, windless day! Allowing the crystal clear cold lakes to become perfect mirrors.
February brought much warmer temperatures after the sometimes bitter cold of January. Caused by more southerly flow bringing lows on a track to the west of South-Central Alaska. Bringing mild maritime air northward from the Pacific. Here Mattie is investigating some other people out in one of the two other, weaker windstorms we had in February. On this day, temperatures were near 37F (+3C) with winds of 35-50 mph.   
The warmer conditions, longer days, and continued heavy snowfalls, made back-country travel in different areas of the Chugach mountains increasingly enjoyable. We made our first trip on classic cross country skis up the Eagle River, upriver from the Nature Centre, late in the month. Temperatures were a relatively balmy 15-20F, allowing for a very pleasant day in this incredibly beautiful 5000-7000 ft. deep canyon, just 20 miles NE of Anchorage. Moody lighting from lower clouds and snow flurries highlighted parts of these incredibly steep, rocky/icy slopes. The highest of which receive snow even through the summer.
The ice on the Eagle River was already at least 2-3 feet thick, then with at least that much more snow on top of it. On this fast-flowing river in the steep canyon, some sections never freeze, but there are always ways to ski around those. This canyon is one our favourite, and treasured areas to hike/run/ski in, throughout the year. We are so fortunate to have it this close at hand.
March returned colder than average conditions to South-Central Alaska, but with less snowfall. This was great for our daily runs/skis and back-country outings. Keeping the snowpack in good condition, and not allowing the rivers/streams to begin thawing/opening up. On our second ski up the Eagle River in mid-March, on a cloudy, slightly snowy day with temperatures of 15-20F (about 10-15F below average for high temps.), the now stronger, higher sun was filtered by the clouds and flurries. And the river ice was in great shape.
Kluane was having a great time by late in March, plowing through the 4-6 ft deep snowpack around the trails/roads on our daily runs and skis. With his larger, webbed feet, he can move much faster than many other dogs through deep snow. And his thick fur keeps him very warm.

All in all, although there were some very stressful times in December, this winter we will long remember for it's interesting, and enjoyable weather, most of the time. The colder, snowier conditions made for excellent skiing and kept the rivers/lakes stable for safe travel. We are uneasy though about the potential for stronger and more frequent windstorms through the winter months, as with more warming, there will be more energy to fuel them from the contrast of cold arctic air over the mainland with the warmer, moister maritime airmasses coming up from the Pacific.

This was all in very great contrast though to what has happened this past winter/early spring in much of the U.S. and southern Canada!


Record Warm March Temperatures Continue Record-Breaking Periods

More than 15,000 warm temperature records broken during March


- Common Dreams staff
The contiguous United States experienced the warmest March ever in the warmest start of the year ever in the warmest 12-month period ever, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
The record warm March temperatures hit the entire nation with each state having experienced at least one record warm daily temperature. The NOAA reports that there were over 15,000 warm temperature records broken during the month.

The NOAA also connected the record breaking March temperatures to the slew of tornadoes saying that "warmer-than-average conditions across the eastern U.S. also created an environment favorable for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes."

The first three months of the year were record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.

The April 2011 to March 2012 period, which included the second hottest summer and fourth warmest winter, was the warmest such period in the contiguous U.S..

Looking at whether human-caused global warming was a factor, NOAA analysts wrote in a draft assessment on "Meteorological March Madness 2012": "Our current estimate of the impact of GHG (greenhouse gases) forcing is that it likely contributed on the order of 5% to 10% of the magnitude of the heat wave during 12-23 March. And the probability of heatwaves is growing as GHG-induced warming continues to progress."
And Jerry Meehl, a climate scientist with the National Center for Atmospheric Research, told the Associated Press, “Everybody has this uneasy feeling. This is weird. This is not good.”
A report issued last month from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) linked the increase in extreme weather with human-caused global warming. “The information is all on the table,” Thomas Stocker, one of the report’s lead authors, told EurActiv. “If you have high emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, then you will increase the incidence of ‘hottest days’ by a factor of 10.”
* * *
NOAA: This animation shows the locations of each of the 7,793 daytime and 7,493 nighttime records (or tied records) in sequence over the 31 days in March.


* * *
From the NOAA report:

The first three months of 2012 were also record warm for the contiguous United States with an average temperature of 42.0°F, 6.0°F above the long-term average.
  • Numerous cities had a record warm January-March, including Chicago, Boston, and Washington, D.C. No state in the contiguous U.S. had below-average January-March temperatures.
  • "The previous 12-month period (April-March), which includes the second hottest summer (June-August) and fourth warmest winter (December-February), was the warmest such period for the contiguous United States. The 12-month running average temperature was 55.4°F, which is 2.6°F above the 20th century average." * * *
MSNBC: US shatters record for warmest March -- and first three months of a year

Stu Ostro, a senior Weather Channel meteorologist, told msnbc.com that the bigger picture isn't promising.
"It's not only what happened in March in North America," he said, "it's the context: the extremity of this extraordinary early-season heat in the U.S. and southern Canada, plus Norway and Scotland breaking their March high temperature records; Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 having their hottest summer on record, even hotter than during the Dust Bowl; the off-the-charts 2010 Russia heat wave along with approximately 20 countries setting high temperature records that summer; and Canada having its warmest winter and year on record in 2010."

"All of this happening with such frequency," he added, "provides overwhelmingly convincing evidence that the overall increased warmth is making the atmosphere more conducive to these sorts of heat extremes."

For us, here at the Alaska Progressive Review, we feel this to be as significant, and alarming of an occurrence, as the Australian wildfires of Feb. 2009, and the Russian heatwave/wildfire outbreak of summer 2010 (in which at least 60,000 deaths occurred due to the dangerous air quality).
Cheers.