The pace and magnitude of Global Warming/Climate Change is faster and greater here in the Arctic than most other areas of the World (as well as in the Antarctic Peninsula, on Antartica, at similar latitudes south of the Equator as Alaska/Scandinavia are north). This is due to our relatively small surface area, combined with the facts that small changes in snow cover extent/duration, and sea ice extent/thickness with resulting milder sea-water temperatures, add great amounts of heat to the Arctic atmosphere. And now, this article estimates it is at it's warmest levels, in some parts, than in the last 120,000 years.
This has been manifesting itself in many ways, here in Alaska. Two of them are stronger and more frequent fall/winter windstorms, and longer cycles of wet/dry weather, when the jet stream slows. Leaving Alaska under a persistent wet flow, for 4-6 weeks, or a drought, of similar duration when a persistent upper ridge lies over it.
Much to our dismay here at the Alaska Progressive review, most of Alaska, including all of South-Central, where Anchorage resides, has been under a wet, mild south-southwest flow aloft, since late August. Giving us 2-3 times our normal rainfall for this period, and this month, making it the warmest October on record. With only a trace of snowfall (when 25-30cm is average for the month) and infrequent frosts. Leaving the ground thawed and muddy, with green grass still present. I don't think anyone has ever seen green grass in Anchorage like this on Halloween!
[credit, NOAA/NWS Alaska]
Alaska has even made national news, as this informative article from Climate Central illustrates:
Alaska Roasts During October, Reigniting Wildfire
Now is the time of year when Alaska’s snowpack starts to build and temperatures plunge as the days become shorter and shorter. But this year, October has turned out to be more like September, with rainstorms instead of snowstorms, and some of the mildest temperatures on record for the month, particularly across interior Alaska.
Temperature departures from average during October 2013, showing the relative warmth in Alaska.Click image to enlarge. Credit: WeatherBell Analytics.
While the warm weather pattern, which has been dominated by a high pressure area in the upper atmosphere, is beginning to change with colder and snowier conditions arriving just in time for Halloween, the above-average temperatures have already carved October 2013’s place in the record books.
According to the National Weather Service in Fairbanks, rain aid in a note on its Facebook page. Temperatures in the 50s at Eielson Air Force Base and Fort Greely were the warmest on record for so late in the fall.
The warm weather led to an even more unusual sight for the fall: smoke from an active wildfire. The Mississippi wildfire, which started in May about 70 miles southeast of Fairbanks, flared up again on Oct. 28, when strong winds were blowing and there were record warm temperatures in the lower 60s.
According to the Alaska News-Miner newspaper, this is “the latest anyone at the Alaska Fire Service can remember fighting an active Interior fire.” [sadly, unprecedented wildfire behaviour is now becoming the norm over the most vulnerable areas of the the globe, such as Australia and western North America, as warming/climate shifts accelerate, eds.]
The NWS said that in Anchorage, the state’s largest city, the temperature set or tied the mark for the warmest overnight low temperature during 6 of 7 days in the period from October 14-20. It was also the warmest mid-October (11-20) on record there, with an average temperature of 47.9°F, which is close to average for mid-September.
Smoke from the Mississippi wildfire visible in Alaska in late October.Credit: NWS via Facebook.
Studies have shown that sea ice loss can speed warming of parts of the Far North, thereby helping to melt permafrost and unlock the greenhouse gases currently locked in such frozen lands. The Arctic is warming faster than any other area in the Northern Hemisphere, and as the country's only Arctic state, Alaska has been warming rapidly in recent years as well. That has had wide-ranging impacts, including coastal flooding that threatens the viability of some coastal communities, as well as melting permafrost that has wreaked havoc with home foundations in interior Alaska.
The coastline of northern Alaska continues to see a trend toward warmer-than-average fall seasons due to the late formation of the sea ice pack. As Arctic sea ice has declined in recent years, it has been slower to build back up close to the shoreline during the fall. That has resulted in above-average temperatures in places like Barrow — the northernmost town in the U.S. — and other locations on the North Slope, since open water allows more heat to escape into the atmosphere than sea ice would have.
However, it appears that Barrow will not break the record for the warmest October, a benchmark that was set just last year.
Related ContentNo, Arctic Sea Ice Has Not Recovered, Scientists Say
Arctic's Rapid Sea Ice Loss Threatens Wildlife
Large Fractures Spotted in Vulnerable Arctic Sea Ice
A Closer Look at Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Extreme Weather
It's Official: Arctic Sea Ice Shatters Record Low
Study Shows a Future in Trans-Arctic Shipping
In Rapidly Changing Arctic, U.S. Playing Game of Catch-Up
As Sea Ice Fades, the Arctic Becomes a Nautical Highway
Arctic's Rapid Sea Ice Loss Threatens Wildlife
Large Fractures Spotted in Vulnerable Arctic Sea Ice
A Closer Look at Arctic Sea Ice Melt and Extreme Weather
It's Official: Arctic Sea Ice Shatters Record Low
Study Shows a Future in Trans-Arctic Shipping
In Rapidly Changing Arctic, U.S. Playing Game of Catch-Up
As Sea Ice Fades, the Arctic Becomes a Nautical Highway
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So what has that does that look like here, in South-Central Alaska? Allow us to illustrate, from our daily activities in the beautiful, interesting, and potentially dangerous landscapes here.
There have been very few clear days here since August. The fall colours in the deciduous birch/aspen/balsam poplar came on later, and were more muted, with the lingering wet mild weather through September. All the creeks and rivers were swollen with continued high runoff from the various mountain ranges.
Many of our local running/hiking/biking/ski trails were completely swamped by mid-September from the excess rainfall. Especially here at the base of the Chugach, where groundwater under pressure from the mountains just behind, seeps to the surface in many areas.
The mild wet weather with just a few frosts continued all through October, so that, amazingly, even at 300-400m elevation (1000-1400'), the landscape was snow-free, and the trails only half-frozen. The snow line on the mountains was still only near 900-1000m (3000-3400').
We have been relatively lucky this fall so far, to have only experienced one fairly strong windstorm in the Anchorage area, as opposed to September of 2012, but many weaker ones.
This moderately strong windstorm earlier this week swept through the Anchorage "Bowl", bringing wind gusts as high as 170 kph (106mph) on the slopes of the Chugach (the "Hillside" it is called here, and this part of Anchorage has the most expensive real estate, due to the beautiful views and wilderness proximity). Here at the Chugach Front Research Centre, we estimated our peak wind gusts to be in the 130-150 kph range, based on how our building shook, and the windows rattled. We've been able to calibrate this fairly well, unfortunately. Although we are at the Chugach Base, and not on the slopes, strong wind gusts funnel/whip out of the N. Fk. Campbell Creek Canyon behind us whenever a windstorm has strong winds aligned with it. A few neighbourhoods nearby were without power from blown-down trees taking down power lines, for 24 hours or so, but better than the 4-5 days for some that happened 9/2012!
These trees came down in our latest storm, across one of our favourite daily-access trails, which all the staff here at the Alaska Progressive Review greatly enjoy running/hiking on.
In spite of the often gloomy, dreary weather, there were some sunny breaks where the gentle waning sub-Arctic winter sun would illuminate the landscape in a nice glow. On one of these, we were highly fortunate to run into a relatively rare lynx. She bounded right in front us on one of our favourite trails, and leapt into a birch tree, where she placidly observed us for 5 min., whilst we in our excitement kept circling, angling for the best photo/viewing opportunities. 
We always feel blessed when we can see and appreciate the other large animals that live alongside us in our sub-Arctic environment. In which the ecosystems are complete, unlike in much of the rest of the US, where brown bears and wolves have been exterminated.
With the pace and magnitude of changes occurring here, we are constantly wondering what will be next! Overall though, it has already been shown that when atmospheric CO2 levels were last the same (400ppm) as they are today (from naturally occurring increased volcanism it is thought), the climates in the Arctic were more similar to what we find over the Northwestern US and SErn BC Canada. Meaning that even in winter, the Arctic Ocean was mostly ice-free, the climate of Fairbanks would have been something like that found currently in SErn BC Canada (say Kelowna or Kamloops), and Anchorage would have probably been similar to a place like Port Townsend, Washington, USA.
Yet, atmospheric CO2 concentrations by the year 2050 will likely be up to 550 ppm! So not only does the Earth's climate system have to catch up to the much warmer climates that occurred 3 million years ago, but to levels that will be even much warmer! Cheers.
