WHAT SEEMS LIKELY BASED ON WHAT WE'VE SEEN

Once again, the power of the U.S. corporate media to hide the truth, and control the discourse on their terms, is illustrated by the following article, published by a more left-leaning U.K. newspaper. But seen nowhere in the mainstream media in this country, unfortunately, since it is highly important.

Published on Monday, November 23, 2009 by The Independent/UK

Antarctic Ice Loss Vaster, Faster Than Thought: Study

The East Antarctic icesheet, once seen as largely unaffected by global warming, has lost billions of tonnes of ice since 2006 and could boost sea levels in the future, according to a new study.

Scientists believe that Antarctica could lose more ice than Greenland within a few years. (Photograph: Momatiuk-Eastcott/Corbis)Published Sunday in Nature Geoscience, the same study shows that the smaller but less stable West Antarctic icesheet is also shedding significant mass.

Scientists worry that rising global temperatures could trigger a rapid disintegration of West Antarctica, which holds enough frozen water to push up the global ocean watermark by about five metres (16 feet).

In 2007 the UN Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) predicted sea levels would rise 18 to 59 centimetres (7.2 to 23.2 inches) by 2100, but this estimate did not factor in the potential impact of crumbling icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica.

Today many of the same scientist say that even if heat-trapping CO2 emissions are curtailed, the ocean watermark is more likely to go up by nearly a metre, enough to render several small island nations unlivable and damage fertile deltas home to hundreds of millions.

More than 190 nations gather in Copenhagen next month to hammer out a global climate deal to curb greenhouse gases and help poor countries cope with its consequences.

University of Texas professor Jianli Chen and colleagues analysed nearly seven years of data on ocean-icesheet interaction in Antarctica.

Covering the period up January 2009, the data was collected by the twin GRACE satellites, which detect mass flows in the ocean and polar regions by measuring changes in Earth's gravity field.

Consistent with earlier findings based on different methods, they found that West Antarctica dumped, on average, about 132 billion tonnes of ice into the sea each year, give or take 26 billion tonnes.
They also found for the first time that East Antarctica - on the Eastern Hemisphere side of the continent - is likewise losing mass, mostly in coastal regions, at a rate of about 57 billion tonnes annually.
The margin or error, they cautioned, is almost as large as the estimate, meaning ice loss could be a little as a few billion tonnes or more than 100.

Up to now, scientists had thought that East Antarctica was in "balance," meaning that it accumulated as much mass and it gave off, perhaps a bit more.

"Acceleration of ice loss in recent years over the entire continent is thus indicated," the authors conclude. "Antarctica may soon be contributing significantly more to global sea level rise."

Another study published last week in the journal Nature reported an upwardly-revised figure for Antarctic temperatures during prior "interglacials", warm periods such as our own that have occurred roughly every 100,000 years.

During the last interglacial which peaked some 128,000 years ago, called the Eemian Period, temperatures in the region were probably six degree Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than today, which is about 3 C (5.4 C) above previous estimates, the study said.

The findings suggest that the region may be more sensitive than scientists thought to greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere that were roughly equivalent to present day levels.  [due to volcanism then, it is thought, eds.].

During the Eemian, sea levels were five-to-seven metres higher than today [Higher than most of Florida!, eds].

© 2009 The Independent

 

Ok, folks, let's look at this. What this research is saying, is that the last time the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere was 390 ppm, which is what it is today (up from 280 ppm 60 years ago), 128,000 years ago, sea levels were 18 to 25 feet (5 to 7 metres) higher than they are today. This was due to naturally occurring volcanism, it is thought, and it is unknown how rapidly they rose to this level. But what would this mean, a sea level, that much higher? If it were to occur relatively quickly, say within 20-30 years (or even 10), could humanity adapt? Because all the major seaports and their infrastructure would be underwater, which is where and how the bulk of the global food and energy is distributed. Would all the different countries be able to rebuild all the transport and distribution facilities on higher ground that quickly? If not, shortages of food and energy would cause great hardship, and could lead to societal collapse, in many areas. It's not inconceivable that this rapid of a sea-level rise could occur. Research is also showing that the Greenland Ice Cap is shrinking rapidly, especially on the coastal margins. And that large areas of it could collapse quite quickly, within a matter of a few years, which could raise sea levels on it's own, by a few metres. Which would quickly drown many areas like Bangladesh, and low-elevation island countries in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

So far, all the global climate models have been too slow in predicting things like the decreasing Arctic summer sea ice, changes are occurring more rapidly.

Here are some things your lead editor has seen in my 23 years of experience as a professional meteorologist, tracking the day to day weather, and studying the climate of North America, and the rest of the World.

1. Summers are longer, warmer, and drier, throughout the Western U.S., Western Canada, and Alaska. Leading to increasing trends in wildfire acreages in all these areas. Sensitive high-elevation tree species like Subalpine Fir and Lodgepole Pine have been decimated by bug infestations and diseases, caused by drought and warmer winters. Lower elevation tree species like Douglas Fir, are moving up in elevation. Increasing wildfire acreages are in themselves, a positive feedback to the climate system, since more CO2 is released.

2. Winters are slightly shorter, but have much greater swings in temperature in the higher latitudes, than even just 30-40 years ago. More frequent southerly flow/high pressure ridging episodes occur between cold spells now, raising average temperatures. Since less of the deep cold air forms here, less is transported south into southern Canada, and the U.S. Leading to warmer winters there, and skimpier mountain snowpacks in the West. Which in turn aggravate drought conditions, since they melt off earlier, weakening the more sensitive forest species, and leaving them more vulnerable to bugs and diseases.

3. More frequent droughts, and floods. Long-term warming manifests in the short-term of daily and weekly weather as stronger, and more persistent high pressure ridging. Exactly like our first-ever near-rainless July this year here in Fairbanks. If a high pressure ridge parks over an area for a month, as it did over interior Alaska this past July, you have warm, dry conditions. To either side of a stationary high pressure ridge, there are low pressure troughs. Containing cool, wet weather. If these persist long enough over an area, there can be heavy rains and flooding. Think of the climate patterns we had 20 years ago, as moving north, and more rapidly now, in the coming decades. The climate of Southern California 20 years from now will likely be similar to what is seen in central Baja California. The climate of Northern California and Southern Oregon, then, will be more like what is now seen in Southern California. The climate of Idaho and Montana, will become more like that seen in southern Nevada, and Northern Arizona/Southern Utah. Don't even ask what southern Arizona will become like! These are the trends that are occurring, and which will amplify, since we will see an increase to 500-550 ppm CO2 now in just 25 years or so.

The tragic fires in Australia last February, documented in our article:

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/03/warning-lights-are-flashing-australia.html

serve as a stark warning of what will become more the norm, in a few decades. An unprecedented heat wave there, combined with strong winds to create fire behaviour not ever likely seen by humans for many thousands of years. Fire plumes burning through their thick, volatile Eucalypt forests reached into the stratosphere, 18 KM, generating lightning, which started more fires. Temperatures were 38-48C (100-116F, with relative humidities of 2-6%), combined with winds of 40-80 km/hr. Fire Danger ratings of 50-80, which is considered extreme, soared to unprecedented levels of 200-300, causing their Bureau of Meteorology to have to change the scale, incorporating a "Catastrophic" category now, for ratings above 100. These kind of conditions there will become much more frequent in the next few decades.

 

Here in North America, similar trends are occurring. We've burnt 6.4 million hectares (16 million acres) from wildfires in Alaska since 2004. 11 million in 2004 and 2005 alone. During the extremely large fire season of 2007 in Idaho/Montana, 35 days occurred in Missoula, where the temperature reached or exceeded 95F (35C), and 11 days, where 100F (38C) was reached or exceeded. In the 8 years I lived there, from 1990-98, I saw it reach 100F, just once! The average July and August high temperature in Missoula is 29C (84F).

 

So we will be seeing conditions like this increasing in frequency, and duration, over the next few decades. That's the reality folks. Since the climate conferences in Copenhagen produced very little of substance, guaranteeing at least a 3C rise in global average temperature by mid-Century:

Copenhagen: Just a Cop Out?

Despite its disappointments, the climate summit in Copenhagen marks a turning point—the end of denial. What's next is recognizing that our climate problem is really a justice problem.

by Tom Athanasiou

Copenhagen was obviously a failure—if you judge it by "the numbers," the formal emission targets and financial commitments that are needed to support a fair, effective, emergency global climate mobilization. If you judge it, that is, by what is necessary.

The more pressing question, though, is whether Copenhagen was a failure when judged against what was possible. This is a much more difficult question, and has far more to do with judgment than with calculation. And much more to do with the immediate future of climate politics.

The good news is that the truth is coming out, and that people all over the world are seeing it. Everyone, and I imagine this includes Barack Obama, knows a hell of a lot more about the climate crisis, and its politics, than they did a year ago. Not, to be sure, that we didn't already know that climatic destabilization is triggering a planetary emergency. This has been obvious for years. The difference now is rather that—thanks to the 350 movement, and here I mean not only the folks at 350.org, but also Mohamed Nasheed, the President of Tuvalu and a whole lot of terrified scientists—we know that we know it. And that we know it with appalling, quantitative confidence.

The bad news is that after Copenhagen, we also know that the elites are at their limits. That what is needed, as the Copenhagen street had it, is "system change not climate change," and that lacking system change, our governments are quite incapable of organizing a decisive response to the climate crisis. The bad news, more particularly, is that if we in "civil society" are to do better than our putative leaders, if indeed we are to help the elites break their own chains of powerlessness, we're going to have to actually dare to assign a bit of responsibility for the Copenhagen fiasco. The bulk of which, alas, will have to go to the wealthy world.

The NGOs grouped into CAN, the Climate Action Network International tried to come to Copenhagen prepared. They even had a scenario analysis close at hand, one that categorized the possible outcomes with names like Breakthrough, Foundation, Greenwash, and Collapse. It was a useful exercise, but the power of the Copenhagen drama, as it finally played itself out, defeated all attempts at easy characterization. I suppose that if you had to pin it down, the outcome would have to be placed somewhere between Greenwash and Collapse. Or, to put a finer gloss on it, in the "not done yet" territory, which is how CAN decided to frame the result.

Looking at the generalities of the Copenhagen Accord and the 2010 negotiating schedule, this may be fair enough. Obama himself took the same line, in a late-night press conference that was actually pretty badly received, calling the accord a "meaningful agreement", but adding that "This progress is not enough," and "We have come a long way, but we have much further to go." Which is a fairly obvious point, given that the accord, such as it is, seems (see for example the Climate Scorecard) to condemn us to about 3.9 degrees Celsius of warming. This is the "Four Degree World" scenario, and it's a fairly magnificent understatement to say that we want to avoid it at almost all costs.

But of course Copenhagen is not the end of the game. The negotiations will continue, as will the organizing, and with the next major climate conference scheduled for Mexico City in November of 2010, they are quite certain to have a major impact on the United States. And if, in the meanwhile, we in America can manage to pass halfway decent climate and energy legislation, we may yet discover that the Obama strategy—which John Holdren, his chief science adviser, characterized during Copenhagen as, simply, "getting started"—offers a plausible way forward, one that can make real progress even in a nation overtaken by insane right-wing ideologues.

The difficulty here is that understanding can too easily degenerate into accommodation. Yes, we are paralyzed by our right wing, and yes this constrains our choices, but the fact remains that, by not paying our way, by refusing to accept anything like our proper share of the responsibility for the crisis now threatening to overcome us, we make the dithering and dysfunction inevitable. Which of course brings us to the equity side of the story, and here there are several key points to report.

One is that, in a signal development, several self-defined vulnerable country blocs emerged in Copenhagen to play extremely significant roles, and managed to do so while protecting not only their local interests, but the interests of the developing countries as a whole. The first of these vulnerable blocs, of course, was AOSIS, the Association of Small Island States, which face rising seas and, in extreme cases like Tuvalu, actual short-term inundation. But Africa, which has discovered the extent of its own vulnerability, also played a critical role, and by so doing helped to protect the South as a whole from being blamed for Copenhagen's failure to deliver.

Not that the right-wing press won't blame it anyway, but at this point I doubt that the gambit has real legs. For while the African people are among the world's most innocent, in terms of their historical contributions to the climate crisis, they will also be among the most brutally impacted, and this is an injustice too obvious to easily set aside. Witness the open letter that Desmond Tutu sent to all heads of state during Copenhagen, a letter that noted that:

"If temperatures are not kept down then Africa faces a range of devastating threats such as crop yield reductions in places of as much 50 percent in some countries by 2020; Increased pressure on water supplies for 70-250 million people by 2020 and 350-600 million by 2050; The cost of adaptation to sea level rises of at least 5-10 percent of gross domestic product."

With these sorts of prospects at hand, it's difficult to be too sympathetic to the North's domestic political problems. Which is why—and this might perhaps just be wishful thinking—I believe that the rich world will fail to effectively evade responsibility for Copenhagen. There are counter-arguments, of course, and gross media distortions by the score, but so far the failure to reach a better deal is not being blamed wholly on the South. And given that the large "emerging economies" signed onto the accord, it's unlikely that it will be.

Indeed, given the wealthy world's failure to adopt strong domestic emission reduction targets, and its equally egregious failure to put a decent mitigation or adaptation support package onto the table, the Copenhagen endgame—in which the emerging economies agreed to the Accord while the weaker and more vulnerable states balked-may well have been the best possible outcome. (Watch the final, 3:10 a.m. plenary here; you won't regret it!)

In this regard, it may not be absurd to hope that, as Copenhagen passes into history, the overall framework by which we understand rich-world commitments will shift in significant ways. For one thing, and despite a clear desire to do so (it inconveniently requires them to "act first" to significantly reduce their emissions) the rich countries did not succeed in setting the Kyoto Protocol aside. But while Copenhagen laid out a two-track negotiating process, including a "Convention track" in which both the US and China can, perhaps, both be eventually coaxed into accepting their fair shares of the global effort, the "Kyoto track" has also been extended. This gives us a clear mandate—to continue the battle to force the wealthy countries to make commitments on the scale demanded by the science, and by their own historical responsibility and capacity to pay—and just as importantly it gives us a context within which to do so.

The road ahead is clear enough. The next big date is February 1, 2010, by which time countries of all kinds are expected to pledge their emissions reductions. When they do, the battles will predictably, and quite properly, flare up all over again.

For the moment, let me add only that Copenhagen, for all its disappointments, marked a turning point. The need for a global emergency mobilization is obvious, and with it, a set of social and political challenges that can no longer be denied. These challenges will get clearer in the days and years ahead, but the essential situation is already before us, ready to be discovered—with the atmosphere's ability to absorb carbon now critically limited, we face the greatest resource-sharing problem of all time.

The climate problem, in other words, was and remains a justice problem. If we fail to solve it, it will be in large part because we refuse to see it as such.

Tom Athanasiou wrote this article for YES! Magazine, a national, nonprofit media organization that fuses powerful ideas with practical actions. Tom is the author of Divided Planet: The Ecology of Rich and Poor, and co-author (with Paul Baer) of Dead Heat: Global Justice and Global Warming. He is the executive director of EcoEquity, a core member of the Greenhouse Development Rights team, and a coauthor of The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework: The right to development in a climate constrained world.

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License

Is all hope lost? Are we doomed to see 3-5C or greater temperature increases globally, with sea levels rising 5 or 10 metres, or more, in several decades (and all the ensuing problems resulting from that)? There are some good ideas out there, like Dr. James Hansen's proposal, outlined here, again in the British media, but not in the U.S.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/12/27-2

As long as Corporate-dominated media continues to distort reality, and as long the bulk of the population in this, and other countries, gets their information from it, it will be very difficult to force politicians to regulate capitalism and sponsor renewable energy development and implementation. All the countries, cultures, and religions of the World are going to have to trust each other, and work together, to prevent the worst effects from occurring, and soon, within ten years. If not, this is what we'll see. This is an amazing bit of science fiction, written in 1973 by Ursula K. Leguin, in a book called The Dispossessed.  About a planet in the Tau Ceti star system, 11 light years from Earth, which has an Earth-like planet named Urras, and a barely-inhabitable moon about it, called Annarres, which was settled by radical socialist/anarchists. In this passage, the main character, from the Anarchist moon, on the run from the Urran authorities, talks with the Terran Ambassador, hundreds of years in our future, who explains what happened on her (our) planet, in her (our) past:

"Now, you man from a world I cannot even imagine, you who see my paradise (Urras) as hell, will you ask what my world must be like?"

"My world (Earth), is a ruin. A planet spoiled by the human species. We multiplied and gobbled and fought until there was nothing left, and then we died. We controlled neither appetite nor violence; we did not adapt. We destroyed ourselves. But we destroyed the World first. There are no forests left on my world, Earth. The air is grey, it is always hot. It is habitable, it is still habitable, but not as this world is. This is a living world, a harmony. Mine is a discord. You Odonians (on Annares) chose a desert; we Terrans made a desert.... We survive there, as you do. People are tough! There are nearly a half billion of us now. Once there were nine billion. You can see the old cities still everywhere. The bones and bricks go to dust, but the little pieces of plastic never do-they never adapt either. We failed as a species, as a social species. We are here now, dealing as equals with other human societies on other worlds, only because of the charity of the Hainish. They came; they brought us help. They built ships and gave them to us, so we could leave our ruined world."

This is what our future holds, unless we all decide to do something about it. Cheers.

SOLSTICIO de INVIERNO en EL DESIERTO de GRANDE SUBARCTICO [y] MAS BUENAS NOTICIAS de AMERICA del SUR

The English translation of our latest article is:

WINTER SOLSTICE IN THE GREAT SUBARCTIC DESERT [and] MORE GOOD NEWS FROM SOUTH AMERICA

Since I plan on re-visiting America del Sur someday, I need to keep using and learning more Espanol. Please bare with us...

Winter solstice in Interior Alaska at 65 Degrees north Latitude has great meaning for many of us who feel environmentally connected here.

The shortest day of the year, of course, when here in the Northern Hemisphere, the Earth is tilted furthest away from sun in it's progression around the axis, tilted 23.5 degrees from the vertical.

So, our sun is only 2 degrees above the horizon on this day, and up for about 3 hours 45 min. But we will slowly start re-gaining more and longer light soon, by March, six minutes a day!

We here at A.P.R. also like to view Winter Solstice in reverential terms, as our ancient ancestors did in all of Europe, before they were "Christianised" by force of arms (by the Romans after 325 a.d.), much as were the Indigenous people on the this continent, much later (and more recently, by...the U.S., England, and Spain). Which is to say, to celebrate it as the nadir of the darkening trend, and a new beginning for a year. We are not adherents to any specific religion at A.P.R., viewing all organised ones that claim to have "the truth" to the exclusion of others, as detrimental to us, and the World at large, in this age of global problems/concerns, and weapons of mass destruction.

So, we wanted to be outside all day, to savour our 3:45 daylight, and greet the New Year, which for us, has arrived.

We decided a ski from dawn till dusk would be a great way to do this. So, we arrived at the McKay Creek trailhead, off the Steese Highway, 90 KM NE of Fairbanks.

The White Mountains are somewhat protected by a BLM National Recreation Area, but at a price, as you'll see.

It was just barely getting light when we began a steep at times 7 KM ascent of 430 metres, from the Steese Highway, up to the high point of this portion of the trail. After about an hour, there was enough light to see this view, looking east, at the new day rising. This entire area was right in the middle of the 243,000 hectare Boundary Fire, the largest one in the state, in our record 2004 fire season. A time of great worry and unhealthy air for the Alaska Interior.

We quickly began seeing these trap markers on the side of the trail, sometimes every 30 metres or so. Right on the trail. It was scary, because snares and leg clamps are present, but covered in snow. And Mattie kept trying to check them out, since they are baited. I had to continually yell at her to keep away. Fortunately, Homer knew better, and I never had to get after him. A snare can kill a dog, as they struggle, it tightens. If you don't have wire-cutters, you will have to watch your dog die slowly, in agony. In addition, some people bring small children on snow machines or dogsleds. As we all know, diverting our attention only a minute or two to deal with a tangled team, or broken machine, is all it takes for a small child to wander off and get into trouble...

The notification, below, appeared about 9 KM in.

I don't know about you, but we think this is wrong, that these dangerous traps, are right on the trail. Since these are federally managed lands, we plan on writing to the district administrator of this area, in Fairbanks, stating our request that these should be at least 30 metres from the trail. That would keep most dogs (and errant children!) out of harm's way. Bob_Schneider@blm.gov

We don't want to shut trapping down, but feel dog-oriented people should be allowed some say in the management of the area, for their safety. Perhaps having these snares and traps further away from the trail, and more continuous presence of people, would entice more animals to them. What do you think? If you support us, and like dogs, join us, and write in!

Homer, with his striking blue eyes on his black face, shows his wisdom quite overtly. At his age of 13 he's seen it all. Mattie, being two, and growing up as a babe in Kodiak, hasn't. It was a struggle keeping her away from the traps, and my voice was hoarse, by day's end.

The interior is really akin to a Great Desert in winter. Receiving only about a centimeter each winter month of liquid-equivalent, in the form of snow. And, cold as it is, the air is very dry. Looking out from 800 metres, across the valley of Nome Creek, toward the 1400 metre "peaks" of the White Mountains, almost gives that impression. The scraggly black spruce are almost-cactus like. These are the predominant tree in this elevated plateau area. Because it is so cold here, permafrost underlies most of it, and it is very swampy, with poor drainage. Bug hell in summer, and often cold and windswept in winter. Though the coldest temperatures of -40 to -55C occur in the valleys, after a cold airmass settles in, and skies clear and winds drop off, when an upper-level low moves south and east through the region.

Today though, under southerly chinook flow (our fourth episode already this winter, imagine that!), it was only -5 to -10C! Or, about 15C above average.

It feels great, but we know it's coming at a price. Since it's been occurring so much lately.

Unfortunately, a poor little Marten got snagged, not long after we passed a trap toward our low point near Nome Creek. After turning back, at out 1300 hours turn-around time, and heading back up, it was in it's death throes. No more than a metre or so off the trail.




Death is a part of nature, of course, but this slow way of death just seems very cruel. About an hour later, we came to the trail junction, for our lunch spot. It was getting windy here, so we just ate quickly, while I put a dry hat and down jacket on to stay warm. I put the jacket back in my pack, and quickly warmed back up, once we got moving again.







By 1430 hours, our weak, feeble sun was starting so set. But with our long twilights here, good usable light lasts until almost 1600! Homer was enjoying the orange glow, as we began heading down the 7 KM steep section back to the trailhead. That was sure fun, like a green alpine run, not too fast, and mostly wide enough to snowplow the steepest sections. It only took 30 minutes going down, but 75 minutes, going up! Our 40 KM trail day ended at 1530 hours, so we had a nice six hour Solstice outing. Once again, we were happy to see 13 year old Homer running strong and happy the whole time, he must have done 50-60KM, and Mattie, 80 or more, with all her side-trips.

MAS BUENAS NOTICIAS De AMERICA Del SUR

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/12/22-1

Yasuni Park Trust Fund Will Keep Ecuador's Oil Underground

COPENHAGEN, Denmark - Ecuador's initiative to protect the climate and the rainforest of Yasuni National Park by leaving its largest oil reserve in the ground will be supported by a new multi-donor trust fund to offset lost oil revenue, Ecuadorian and United Nations officials announced last week in Copenhagen.

Pristine rainforest in Yasuni National Park (Photo courtesy Ecuador-Travel.net)Ecuador's Foreign Minister Fander Falconi and Minister of Natural and Cultural Heritage Marie Ferdinand Espinosa, launched the new trust fund together with Helen Clark, the former New Zealand prime minister, who now serves as administrator of the UN Development Programme.

"Yasuni National Park is a fantastic project and a big contribution to save our climate," said Clark at a news conference in Copenhagen announcing the UNDP cooperation with the Government of Ecuador.

The Yasuni Trust Fund will be managed by the UN Development Programme. It will focus on reducing carbon dioxide emissions by permanently foregoing extraction of fossil fuels from the park; developing alternative energy; protecting indigenous groups; and reducing poverty and inequality through sustainable social development.

In exchange for keeping the crude oil in the ground in the Ishpingo, Tampococha, Tiputini (ITT) region, the Ecuadorian government has asked for compensation of $350 million a year for 10 years.
The Yasuni-ITT initiative was proposed in 2007 and has been met with widespread international interest, inspiring the government to extend the deadline for the initial $350 million down payment until December.

The initiative aims to prevent the extraction of an estimated 850 million barrels of crude oil in the ground beneath the park. This would prevent the release of 407 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide and would also protect the indigenous peoples and unique plants and animals that inhabit the park.

The park is designated as a UNESCO Biosphere Reserve and is home to indigenous peoples who live in voluntary isolation to protect their way of life.

Matt Finer of Save America's Forests has lived and worked as an ecologist in Yasuni National Park. "The establishment of the trust fund is a critical, and long-awaited, step towards making the Yasuni-ITT Initiative a success," he said.

"For the first time in the initiative's 2.5 year life span, donors will actually be able to make financial contributions. So we will soon see what countries are serious about backing this revolutionary initiative," said Finer.

"Moreover," he said, "the UNDP's involvement adds a lot of credibility for any interested, yet previously skeptical, donor."A bird in Yasuni National Park (Photo by Josh Bousel)
Ecuador's selection of the UN Development Programme to administer the fund is based on UNDP's record of efficient, transparent and accountable administration of over 30 multi-donor trust funds in over 70 countries, the UN agency said.

Covering nearly 2.5 million acres of primary tropical rainforest at the intersection of the Andes, the Amazon and the equator, Yasuni National Park was created in 1979. It is the ancestral territory of the Woarani people, and two other indigenous tribes living in voluntary isolation, the Tagaeri and the Taramenane.

Described by scientists such as Dr. Jane Goodall and Dr. E.O. Wilson as one of the world's most biologically important tropical rainforests, Yasuni is critical habitat to 23 globally threatened mammal species, including the giant otter, the Amazonian manatee, the pink river the giant anteater, and the Amazonian tapir. Ten primate species live in the Yasuni, including the threatened white-bellied spider monkey, together with a wealth of unique birds.

As a result of its unique location, Yasuni contains what are thought to be the greatest variety of tree and insect species anywhere on the planet. In just 2.5 acres, there are as many tree species as in all of the United States and Canada combined.

The government has launched a countrywide campaign to raise small donations from civil society. The fund will also accept private and public sector donations, debt swaps, carbon bonds issued in the voluntary carbon market for avoided CO2 emissions, and direct investment in specific government development projects, which would have been financed by ITT oil revenues.
The Ecuadorian government has received many international offers of support. On June 26, the German parliament unanimously approved a resolution backing the initiative and committing the government and Chancellor Angela Merkel to financially and politically support of the initiative, as well as promoting it among EU countries and the Club of Paris.

It was at the request of the German Parliament that Ecaudorian President Rafael Correa extended the deadline to secure funds until December.

Additional support has come from the Spanish government, which contributed an initial $4 million dollars towards Yasuni conservation.

President Correa announced at the UN General Assembly in September that Ecuador would permanently maintain its crude oil, estimated at one billion barrels of heavy crude reserves, underground putting social and environmental values first, thereby preventing the emission of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

"This is a great step in both the battle to save Yasuni and to move Ecuador towards a new post-petroleum development model," said Esperanza Martinez of Accion Ecologica, which has been leading the civil society campaign in support of the initiative. "While we believe that all of Yasuni National Park should be off limits to oil drilling and that the proposal should consider financial options other than emissions trading, we welcome this development and hope it leads to the permanent protection of what is really the lifeblood of the Amazon."

© 2009 Environment News Service

What an inspiration for the rest of the World. As we said a few weeks ago, great things are happening en America del Sur, and we often look to it for inspiration! About the only good thing, to have come out of the global climate change initiative meetings in Copenhagen, the last few weeks. A.P.R. will have more to say about that later. Cheers, and Happy Solstice!

CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN [or] RECLAIMING THE CONTINENT

CHANGE WE CAN BELIEVE IN [or] RECLAIMING THE CONTINENT

The words below are comments written about this article, http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/12/11-9, which describes President Obama's Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech:

"Like all good politicians, Obama is adept at paying homage to multiple, inconsistent views at once, enabling everyone to hear whatever they want in what he says while blissfully ignoring the rest."

The fact is, a permanent state of war will define the US for the forseeable future and there is and always has been a bipartisan consensus on that.

We couldn't agree more. The current administration more and more seems to be just an extension of the Bush regime, with a more eloquent speaker at the head, being the only substantive difference.

Obama's speech to the nation about surging 30,000 more troops into Afghanistan, for a pointless, immoral, and futile war, sounded very much like what would have come out of the previous adminstration.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2009/12/07-10

There are all the economic advisors, the men from the largest financial institutions whose greed and short-sightedness nearly destroyed the Global economy, chosen to lead the new administration in its economic policies.

And of course, the ridiculous "health care reform" which will end up costing hundreds of billions of dollars, while still leaving out most of the currently uninsured people, and further enriching the soul-less death machines we call "Health Insurance Corporations". Who put profits before all else, continually pushing the envelope in denying coverage and benefits for those in need.

But there are other countries, where Change We Can Believe In, is actually occurring. Many are in South America, where over the past ten years, more left-wing politicians have been elected, in response to the aspirations of the poverty-stricken people in their countries, who have suffered greatly from the 1960s-1990s under often fascist, repressive regimes, sponsored by this country. No longer. One of the most striking, and dynamically changing countries is the one I had the fortune of visiting for three weeks last year, Bolivia. The poorest country in South America, mainly because 65 percent of its population is indigenous, of Aymara, Inca, and Amazon tribal extraction.

Bolivian President Evo Morales, the subject of great admiration, here at the Alaska Progressive Review, was re-elected to a second five-year term this week.

Here he is last year in La Paz, at a political rally, when I was able to get within 10 metres of the stage. That's him with the flower garland around his neck.

Published on Tuesday, December 8, 2009 by BBC News

Bolivian President to Deepen Social Revolution

by James Painter
"President Evo Morales seems set to push ahead with the implementation of a new constitution to place indigenous peoples at the heart of Bolivia's government and society after his victory in Sunday's presidential election.

VP Alvaro Garcia and President Morales have been in power since 2006. (AP Photo)A poor result for the opposition suggests an easier passage for social reforms and a lessening of demands for secession by departments traditionally opposed to Mr Morales, according to analysts.
Preliminary results say that Mr Morales, an Aymara Indian and Bolivia's first indigenous president, won at least 61% of the vote, easily defeating his conservative opponents.

That is a higher percentage than he won in 2005 when he was elected for his first mandate.If his victory is confirmed, it would also be the first time in Bolivia since 1964 that an incumbent president has won a second term - an unusual event in a country often synonymous with military coups and political instability.

The key electoral battleground was for seats in the new Plurinational Legislative Assembly. In the previous Senate, the opposition had a small majority which allowed them to block new legislation.

Under the new constitution which was ratified in a referendum last year, the method of electing senators has changed.

Exit polls suggest that Mr Morales's party, the Movement to Socialism (MAS), has won at least 24 seats in the new 36-seat senate, which would give him a two-thirds majority.
However, it is unclear if the MAS has won enough seats in the new Chamber of Deputies to win a similar majority and ensure an easy passage for the 100-plus laws necessary to fully implement a new constitution.

Final official results will be known later this week.

Breakaway regions

The preliminary results suggest that the MAS has increased its vote in the wealthier eastern departments, where the opposition to President Morales has traditionally been based.
In the Santa Cruz department for example, exit polls suggest that Mr Morales' party increased its vote to 40% from 33% in 2005.

In Tarija, Beni and Pando, MAS also improved its vote significantly.
According to Oxford Analytica, a research organisation, the degree of support in these areas "means that the prospect of secession is ever more remote".

In 2007 and 2008 there was considerable speculation that Santa Cruz and other departments might break away from the highland, more indigenous, departments where support for Mr Morales is overwhelming.

John Crabtree of Oxford University says the improved performance of the MAS was due in part to the priority the party gave to Santa Cruz in its campaigning.
"Another element was the lessening of the climate of fear amongst the migrant population there," Mr Crabtree says. "It also helped MAS that the opposition was divided and had lacklustre candidates."

Likely changes
President Morales is expected to make the implementation of the new constitution his main legislative priority at the start of his second term.

Amongst the most important changes envisaged are:
* More indigenous rights and more indigenous participation in politics* A reworking of the judiciary, whereby indigenous systems of justice will enjoy the same status as the official existing system; judges will be elected, and no longer appointed by congress* Power decentralised into four levels of autonomy - departmental, regional, municipal and indigenous.

The key to Mr Morales' success has been his appeal to the 65% of the population who define themselves as indigenous and who see him as "one of theirs".

They have also been the recipients of increased social spending boosted by high international prices for hydrocarbons, and more taxes on foreign oil and gas companies.

Cash payments have been made to poor families to encourage school attendance.
Extra pension payments have been to the elderly, and pre-natal and post-natal care bas been extended to mothers without health protection.

Two women in El Alto, Bolivia, 25 NovMorales has vowed to deepen reforms focused on Indian power

Some estimates suggest that the payments reached a quarter of Bolivia's 10 million people this year.

According to recent analysis by the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR), government revenue has increased by almost 20% of GDP since 2004.

The Morales government has spent massively in recent months to counteract the effect of the global recession.

CEPR says that from a fiscal surplus of 5% of GDP in early 2008 (worth several billion dollars), recent government spending meant this became a fiscal deficit in 2009.

The Bolivian economy is set to grow this year by between 2.5% and 3.5%, one of the highest anywhere in the Americas.

The IMF's director of Western hemisphere countries, Nicolas Eyzaguirre, has praised the Morales government for what he called its "very responsible" macroeconomic policies.
More state intervention?

Morales supporters say that the greater state control of the oil and gas sectors helped to boost government income.

His critics say that state intervention may work well for redistributing income, but not for encouraging investment, technical and managerial expertise and the eradication of corruption.
Government ministers say they want to attract foreign investment into new areas like the development of Bolivia's large deposits of lithium and iron ore.

"We want partners, not patrons" is the oft-repeated slogan.

"One priority for the coming years is industrialisation," says Mr Crabtree, "by which the government means adding value to raw materials by processing them."

Analysts say one key test will be whether the queue of foreign companies interested in developing Bolivia's huge reserves of lithium will turn into a concrete deal between a private company and the state.

Lithium is seen as critical for developing a new generation of battery-driven cars."
© 2009 BBC News

This is great news! Because Evo Morales' administration has truly been working to use the natural wealth of their country to ease the poverty there.
Which is very evident, travelling by train to the south of the country, poor little villages like this were a common sight. Though they all did have electricity coming in, much of which had just been done over the past few years, thanks to the Morales administration.

On my attempted climb of 6530 metre Volcan Illimani (21,230 ft), (derailed at 5600 metres by my dreaded Soroche, altitude sickness) for which I paid 450.00 USD, we had local villagers hired as porters. These young women from the village at the base of the mountain hauled up the first two 30 kg loads up to the 4400 metre low-camp on horseback. The homes in their village are of the common adobe, reed-roofed, low-walled construction, with earthen floors (though they do now have electricity!). Other than that sporadic employment, these villagers struggle to coax meagre crops of potatoes, quinoa, and other crops from the cold thin soils at 4000+ metres, as well as herding horses, sheep, llamas, and alpacas. A very arduous, difficult way of life, with little hope of improvement.

The U.S. corporate media tries to portray Evo Morales, and Hugo Chavez, of Venezuela, as dictatorial, bent on maintaining power endlessly (as "our" previously sponsored fascist regimes did!), and intent on moving their countries into Socialism along Cuba's model. Yet this is decidedly not so.

One look at the skyline of La Paz (with Illimani gracing it with her majestic presence!) tells the story. Private enterprise is very strong here, all the modern skyscrapers are occupied by banks, telecommunications industries, and other large corporations. There are large auto dealerships, supermarkets, and everything else we associate with a modern "developed" country.

The main difference though, is that this modernity is surrounded by massive poverty. The slums of El Alto, at 4100 metres (where the airport is), are cold and drafty, on the high altiplano, while the city of La Paz drops down in a canyon, 500-1000 metres lower, warmer, and protected from the wind.

Bolivia only has a population of around 11 million, but over 3 million of that is in and around La Paz. Much of it's modern growth, over the past 40 years, in the slums of El Alto and La Paz itself, has been from people in the cold villages of the high Altiplano, trying to find a better, less arduous life, in the city. Which has not worked out for most, and so many struggle working in crowded little shopping stalls, selling whatever they can, or the least fortunate, begging on the streets. A daunting challenge, for any government, willing, and trying to change and better the living conditions for these people.

Yet these people are descended from a culture that was able to build this amazing temple site of Tihuanaco, at least 4000 years ago, of massive multi-ton rock slabs, which fit together perfectly. And which were somehow hauled 100 KM to the site from the shores of Lake Titicaca.

It was hard not to feel sorry for these people, whose lives are so difficult, in comparison to ours, and who aren't able to travel like we are, and experience other cultures. Not to mention, have the basics of good food, housing, and medical care.

Most of the people I talked with in Bolivia were very much in favour of the Morales administration, and their stated goals of using the country's natural wealth, to raise the standard of living of the populace.

One thing we of European descent, in the Western Hemisphere need to understand is this: capitalism/"the market"/free enterprise/private property, are alien concepts and constructs in indigenous culture. Before their cultures were nearly destroyed by the Spaniards/Portugese, in Latin America, and other European countries, in North America, they lived more communally, sharing work, responsibilities, and the wealth of their areas together. Thus, since the Morales Administration is attempting to reflect the values of their Aymara/Inca culture more, they are and will be acting in ways that seem "Socialistic". That is their culture. The other countries in South America are and will also be changing in these ways more with time, and hopefully some day, Mexico (since it still has a large indigenous population).

The "bad old days" of corporate-sponsored U.S. subversion and control of Latin American countries are over (the U.S. embassy in La Paz looked like a bunker, with little slits for windows, surrounded by barbed wire. The only one like it, all the other countries had friendlier-looking ones). Massive popular support of the more left-leaning governments, as evinced by the thousands at this march in La Paz last year, is increasing.

The Alaska Progressive Review is greatly excited by this. Because we feel that their way, in these countries, especially Bolivia and Venezuela, of combining Indigenous culture and its more holistic World-view, with modern technology, will enable humanity to over-come the looming threats of overpopulation, resource-depletion, and climate change in the decades to come. If it were to become more widespread.

We think it's especially interesting, and ironic, that here in the amazing Salar de Uyuni (Uyuni Salt Flat), the World's biggest desert saline lake, at an elevation of 3600 metres, lies the Earth's largest, and most easily accessible source of Lithium, in the form of the salt. Which is needed if Lithium-ion battery technology for electric vehicles is to improve and become widespread, replacing internal combustion engines.

Let's hope the Morales Administration will be able to find global partners who can sustainably, and responsibly harvest this valuable resource, for the betterment of the planet.

We plan on re-visiting Bolivia when we can, as it's incredible diversity of natural beauty, interesting and friendly culture, and exciting political/social change are captivating, and worthy of reporting on. We also want and need to visit the surrounding countries of Argentina, Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Brasil, and Venezuela. Great things are happening in much of South America, and we need to get the word out! Cheers.

GOING WITH THE FLOW

GOING WITH THE FLOW

The Alaska Progressive Review staff felt compelled to spend Thanksgiving weekend in the Alaska range, cross-country skiing, and hiking.

Because we were in a southerly flow aloft at that time, which brings mild maritime air northward from the Gulf of Alaska. Usually raising temperatures throughout the Alaska Range and Interior to as warm as 0 to -15C (+32 to +5F). Which in late November and December is a good 10-20C above average. This allows us to be outside doing whatever we like, with much less protection, and worry, from cold weather hazards. And it sure feels great!

So, Thanksgiving day we lit out early for the just over three hour drive to Paxson, 120 KM south of Delta Junction, on the Richardson Highway. I had long seen cabins for rent there at the junction where the Denali Highway starts, on it's westward direction to Cantwell. This looked like a perfect base to use for nordic skiing all around the area, in the nice mild conditions.

The drive down was exciting, through the Alaska Range. The strong south chinook winds were howling through 1500-2500 metre deep canyon of the Delta River, probably 60-80 KPH. The road would occasionally become obscured when visibility in blowing snow dropped abruptly, and we'd have to nearly stop, and get our bearings. Two mangled cars, one upside down, were on the side of the highway near Black Rapids. Fortunately, no one was in them, but they obviously were either driving too fast, or didn't have good tires, for the conditions. We got to Paxson around 1230 and drove up to the "Denali Highway Cabins".

http://www.denalihwy.com/
These "Denali Highway Cabins" are actually quite nice and plush inside. As good as any hotel room you'll find anywhere, for it's price. Since it was winter though, the plumbing was turned off, so no shower or sink, but buckets of water were provided so the toilet tank could be filled, for flushing. And, drinking water was also provided. They of course had oil stoves for heat, and electricity, for all the other amenities. Amazingly, our cell phone even worked better here than in Fairbanks!

The owner, Dr. Audobon Bakewell, and his wife greeted us, and showed us our cabin. It looked like we were the only ones staying that day, in the five cabin complex. Audie, as he likes to be called, must have a PhD in a biological science (we forgot to ask), as he advertises giving nature tours, in the area.

We just wanted to get on the trails though, and get out in the mild -5C air. But first, Homer wasted no time checking the place out and getting comfortable. He is 13 now, which for a canid, is equivalent to 85-90 in human terms, and so appreciates his creature comforts, such as a warm room with soft carpeting, and quick access to me, so he can nudge me with his big black wet nose, when he needs something.



One of the first things I noticed, when we got there, is that the Gulkana River, right next to the cabin, was still open and running fast. In fact, Audie said that it always is, and is one of the only rivers in the Alaska Interior that does, because it is so steep here. He said it takes a week of -45C temperatures to create a thin skim of ice on top, but as soon as it warms to -40C, it opens right back up! We sure loved listening to it, missing that sound from the years of living in Juneau and Missoula, MT, where it was ever-present.


After a hasty unpacking and lunch, we hit the trails around the area. Audie said that there are about 32 KM of trails, on both sides of the Richardson Highway, around the Alaska Pipeline, and around the Denali Highway. I classic skied for a couple hours in the dim afternoon sun, while Mattie and Homer ran free, something they really appreciate. Snowmachines packed down some of the trails, making for easy gliding, though we did break some trail occasionally, on smaller ones, to get to a small lake.

Although we could have given thanks that day with friends, we just couldn't pass up being in the mountains like this, when it's warm, so after skiing, we just had a regular backpacking meal, along with some good red wine, and watched a movie, on the little TV/DVD player in the cabin. Not bad! And walked around occasionally by the rushing Gulkana River, savoring that sound, as it will be a long while before we get to hear it again.

One plan of mine was to skate ski the next day, on the Denali Highway. This highway stretches 250 KM west to Cantwell, south of the crest of the Alaska Range, with only a few lodges on it, no towns. Very beautiful and relatively wild. I had hoped to be able to ski at least 34 KM in to the Tangle Lakes, then back, that day, which if conditions were right, could be done in 8-10 hours, maximum. But, friday morning, I skated up about 4 KM or so, and had to turn back, there just wasn't enough snow on the highway, there were many bare spots, and cars and trucks were still driving on it. Not wanting to jeopardise Mattie and Homer's safety as well, we turned back. The road is technically closed to auto traffic in winter, so once more snow accumulates, it will be. There is enough snowmachine traffic on it to keep it packed down, allowing skiers to skate, which is the fastest, most efficient form of nordic skiing (but also the most vulnerable to bad weather, a heavy snowfall, or abrupt thaw can make it miserable and slow).

That was a disappointment, but we'll get back there in Feb. or March (or April!) and do some skating there when it is car-free, with good snow conditions.

So, I put on my classic skis, and we went exploring for a few more hours around Paxson, on some other trails around the area. We came upon this about 1KM long lake, just south of the Denali Highway, Homer and Mattie loved running all around and across it. There wasn't enough trail distance though for an all-day outing, so we drove back north up the Richardson highway, after lunch, to ski up toward the base of the Gulkana glacier.

As we came around a curve on the side of Summit Lake, Caribou were blocking
the highway, and we had to stop. A herd of about 20 of them just walked across the highway, and onto the lake. Mattie was going wild in the car, jumping and crying. She sure wanted to get out and make chase, but that was not going to happen.

Kilo for kilo though, or little assistant editor has as much energy and drive as any canid I've ever seen. She would have given them a run for their money!

I classic skied in the warm -8C air on some snowmachine trails, northeast, toward the base of the Gulkana glacier. Unfortunately, the snowpack was rather skimpy, only about 10cm, and I was hitting some rocks occasionally, on my newer back-country skis. Not wanting to ruin them, we turned back, but not before Homer and Mattie discovered a porcupine. I'm not sure if either one of them has experienced being quilled, but I yelled as loud as I could at them to get them back, and fortunately they listened. It would have been a miserable time for them, had they gotten a face full of quills. All the more reason to get back after just a two-hour outing.

So, having been disappointed in our skiing twice that day, we just decided to do a short 90 min. run up and back, on the Denali Highway, to end the day. That sure felt good, in the mild evening, turning to night, since we finished around 1800. Homer ran about six hours that day, without tiring at all. What an inspiration! I want to be able to do that, when I reach 85-90, his equivalent age!

The plan for the trip back saturday was to stop at Rainbow Ridge, and hike around on it, which is on the way back to Fairbanks. This is a beautiful, multi-coloured ridge that rears nearly vertically 1500 metres up on the east side of the Richardson Highway, about 90 KM south of Delta Junction.

There wasn't a whole lot of snow on it, since the chinook winds scoured much of it way on Thanksgiving and Friday.

We reached the base around 1100, and just started walking up the talus slopes, at the foot of the ridge. The only 8-10 cm of wind-packed snow actually stabilised the talus, so it was safer footing than in summer, and faster! It was still fairly mild, -13C, with not a hint of a breeze, that felt great!








We just hiked up about an hour, to get up about halfway up the ridge, and enjoy the view, before heading home. This is looking north, the higher 3000-4000 metre, eternally white, peaks of the eastern half of the Alaska range are in the far distance.

What a treat, to be able to enjoy ourselves for three days, in the mild weather in the Alaska Range!

While we greatly prize, and make the most of the mild winter weather, when we have it, it is becoming more frequent. While that makes it easier, and more enjoyable for us living and recreating here, it's coming at a price.

This southerly flow pattern, with a high pressure ridge in the jet stream pumping mild maritime air northward, is occurring much more frequently now in winter, as Global Warming asserts itself more strongly.

The greatest magnitude of the warming seen over the past 30-40 years in the Arctic, has been in winter, for this reason. And this makes perfect sense. Since our sun angle in winter this far north is so low, the only way mild weather (defined arbitrarily, by me, thank you very much, as -15C or warmer) can occur is if warmer, maritime air is circulated north by the jet stream. Since there is more heat energy being retained in the atmosphere now that the atmospheric CO2 level is 390 ppm (up from 280 70 years ago, and rising 3-5 ppm annually), this method of global heat re-distribution occurs more frequently, is more persistent, and of greater magnitude now, than say, 30 or more years ago.

The warmer winters then don't allow as thick of ice cover to develop over the Arctic ocean, snow cover over the land is generally not as thick and persistent, and when the deep cold spells (-25C to -50C) do occur, they don't last as long. Which is why permafrost is also melting rapidly now, especially in the southern half of the Arctic. Which in itself, is a "positive feedback", since vast amounts of CO2 and methane is released when it thaws and melts.

An excellent example of this occurred just yesterday around interior Alaska. A very strong southerly chinook flow, pushed mild, maritime air, above freezing in the lower levels, north across the Alaska Range. Temperatures around Fairbanks popped up to 3-4C, and strong south winds surfaced in a few areas, which is very unusual.

Even more unusual, is this 5-day forecast height of the 500 millibar pressure (a level in the atmosphere generally between 4900-6000 metres, depending on the temperature, the higher these heights, the warmer the airmass), right. Which is from the generally most accurate numerical weather forecast model, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting). Because all the western European countries pool their best researchers and funding, this model is the World's premiere tool for looking out 3-7 days ahead. The U.S. medium range model, the GFS (Global Forecast System) is also quite good, but the ECMWF usually tends to outperform it slightly in the higher latitudes. What this is showing, is an incredibly strong, nearly record-breaking, warm summer-like high pressure ridge, developing over Alaska at Day 5 (wed. 02DEC09) (the flow is parallel to the countours, clockwise around a high pressure ridge).

If this occurs, which seems likely, it will bring our second, even warmer, above-freezing episode to Interior Alaska this winter. Temperatures could conceivably reach up to 6-10C! Which would break some daily records, and begin to melt our snowpack, since at least two days of these conditions may occur.

Since it is winter, the airmass is not as warm, with a ridge of this magnitude, as it would be in summer, when solar insolation heats the ground. If this ridge were over Alaska in June or July, temperatures would easily reach 30-36C (86-95F), instead of the just 6-10C (43-50F) expected next week. Still, this would be 20C above average, for this time of year!

Many people have been asking me about the more turbulent weather we've been getting in Interior Alaska over the past 20 years, stronger temperature cycles, more thunderstorms, and more extremes in general, in drought, and heavy precipitation. I don't hesitate to tell them, this is just a taste of things to come. Because if this is what we're seeing from an increase of 330 to 390 ppm CO2 over the past 30-40 years, what will we be seeing when we reach 500-550 ppm CO2 in 20-30 years?! Cheers.