GOING WITH THE FLOW

GOING WITH THE FLOW

The Alaska Progressive Review staff felt compelled to spend Thanksgiving weekend in the Alaska range, cross-country skiing, and hiking.

Because we were in a southerly flow aloft at that time, which brings mild maritime air northward from the Gulf of Alaska. Usually raising temperatures throughout the Alaska Range and Interior to as warm as 0 to -15C (+32 to +5F). Which in late November and December is a good 10-20C above average. This allows us to be outside doing whatever we like, with much less protection, and worry, from cold weather hazards. And it sure feels great!

So, Thanksgiving day we lit out early for the just over three hour drive to Paxson, 120 KM south of Delta Junction, on the Richardson Highway. I had long seen cabins for rent there at the junction where the Denali Highway starts, on it's westward direction to Cantwell. This looked like a perfect base to use for nordic skiing all around the area, in the nice mild conditions.

The drive down was exciting, through the Alaska Range. The strong south chinook winds were howling through 1500-2500 metre deep canyon of the Delta River, probably 60-80 KPH. The road would occasionally become obscured when visibility in blowing snow dropped abruptly, and we'd have to nearly stop, and get our bearings. Two mangled cars, one upside down, were on the side of the highway near Black Rapids. Fortunately, no one was in them, but they obviously were either driving too fast, or didn't have good tires, for the conditions. We got to Paxson around 1230 and drove up to the "Denali Highway Cabins".

http://www.denalihwy.com/
These "Denali Highway Cabins" are actually quite nice and plush inside. As good as any hotel room you'll find anywhere, for it's price. Since it was winter though, the plumbing was turned off, so no shower or sink, but buckets of water were provided so the toilet tank could be filled, for flushing. And, drinking water was also provided. They of course had oil stoves for heat, and electricity, for all the other amenities. Amazingly, our cell phone even worked better here than in Fairbanks!

The owner, Dr. Audobon Bakewell, and his wife greeted us, and showed us our cabin. It looked like we were the only ones staying that day, in the five cabin complex. Audie, as he likes to be called, must have a PhD in a biological science (we forgot to ask), as he advertises giving nature tours, in the area.

We just wanted to get on the trails though, and get out in the mild -5C air. But first, Homer wasted no time checking the place out and getting comfortable. He is 13 now, which for a canid, is equivalent to 85-90 in human terms, and so appreciates his creature comforts, such as a warm room with soft carpeting, and quick access to me, so he can nudge me with his big black wet nose, when he needs something.



One of the first things I noticed, when we got there, is that the Gulkana River, right next to the cabin, was still open and running fast. In fact, Audie said that it always is, and is one of the only rivers in the Alaska Interior that does, because it is so steep here. He said it takes a week of -45C temperatures to create a thin skim of ice on top, but as soon as it warms to -40C, it opens right back up! We sure loved listening to it, missing that sound from the years of living in Juneau and Missoula, MT, where it was ever-present.


After a hasty unpacking and lunch, we hit the trails around the area. Audie said that there are about 32 KM of trails, on both sides of the Richardson Highway, around the Alaska Pipeline, and around the Denali Highway. I classic skied for a couple hours in the dim afternoon sun, while Mattie and Homer ran free, something they really appreciate. Snowmachines packed down some of the trails, making for easy gliding, though we did break some trail occasionally, on smaller ones, to get to a small lake.

Although we could have given thanks that day with friends, we just couldn't pass up being in the mountains like this, when it's warm, so after skiing, we just had a regular backpacking meal, along with some good red wine, and watched a movie, on the little TV/DVD player in the cabin. Not bad! And walked around occasionally by the rushing Gulkana River, savoring that sound, as it will be a long while before we get to hear it again.

One plan of mine was to skate ski the next day, on the Denali Highway. This highway stretches 250 KM west to Cantwell, south of the crest of the Alaska Range, with only a few lodges on it, no towns. Very beautiful and relatively wild. I had hoped to be able to ski at least 34 KM in to the Tangle Lakes, then back, that day, which if conditions were right, could be done in 8-10 hours, maximum. But, friday morning, I skated up about 4 KM or so, and had to turn back, there just wasn't enough snow on the highway, there were many bare spots, and cars and trucks were still driving on it. Not wanting to jeopardise Mattie and Homer's safety as well, we turned back. The road is technically closed to auto traffic in winter, so once more snow accumulates, it will be. There is enough snowmachine traffic on it to keep it packed down, allowing skiers to skate, which is the fastest, most efficient form of nordic skiing (but also the most vulnerable to bad weather, a heavy snowfall, or abrupt thaw can make it miserable and slow).

That was a disappointment, but we'll get back there in Feb. or March (or April!) and do some skating there when it is car-free, with good snow conditions.

So, I put on my classic skis, and we went exploring for a few more hours around Paxson, on some other trails around the area. We came upon this about 1KM long lake, just south of the Denali Highway, Homer and Mattie loved running all around and across it. There wasn't enough trail distance though for an all-day outing, so we drove back north up the Richardson highway, after lunch, to ski up toward the base of the Gulkana glacier.

As we came around a curve on the side of Summit Lake, Caribou were blocking
the highway, and we had to stop. A herd of about 20 of them just walked across the highway, and onto the lake. Mattie was going wild in the car, jumping and crying. She sure wanted to get out and make chase, but that was not going to happen.

Kilo for kilo though, or little assistant editor has as much energy and drive as any canid I've ever seen. She would have given them a run for their money!

I classic skied in the warm -8C air on some snowmachine trails, northeast, toward the base of the Gulkana glacier. Unfortunately, the snowpack was rather skimpy, only about 10cm, and I was hitting some rocks occasionally, on my newer back-country skis. Not wanting to ruin them, we turned back, but not before Homer and Mattie discovered a porcupine. I'm not sure if either one of them has experienced being quilled, but I yelled as loud as I could at them to get them back, and fortunately they listened. It would have been a miserable time for them, had they gotten a face full of quills. All the more reason to get back after just a two-hour outing.

So, having been disappointed in our skiing twice that day, we just decided to do a short 90 min. run up and back, on the Denali Highway, to end the day. That sure felt good, in the mild evening, turning to night, since we finished around 1800. Homer ran about six hours that day, without tiring at all. What an inspiration! I want to be able to do that, when I reach 85-90, his equivalent age!

The plan for the trip back saturday was to stop at Rainbow Ridge, and hike around on it, which is on the way back to Fairbanks. This is a beautiful, multi-coloured ridge that rears nearly vertically 1500 metres up on the east side of the Richardson Highway, about 90 KM south of Delta Junction.

There wasn't a whole lot of snow on it, since the chinook winds scoured much of it way on Thanksgiving and Friday.

We reached the base around 1100, and just started walking up the talus slopes, at the foot of the ridge. The only 8-10 cm of wind-packed snow actually stabilised the talus, so it was safer footing than in summer, and faster! It was still fairly mild, -13C, with not a hint of a breeze, that felt great!








We just hiked up about an hour, to get up about halfway up the ridge, and enjoy the view, before heading home. This is looking north, the higher 3000-4000 metre, eternally white, peaks of the eastern half of the Alaska range are in the far distance.

What a treat, to be able to enjoy ourselves for three days, in the mild weather in the Alaska Range!

While we greatly prize, and make the most of the mild winter weather, when we have it, it is becoming more frequent. While that makes it easier, and more enjoyable for us living and recreating here, it's coming at a price.

This southerly flow pattern, with a high pressure ridge in the jet stream pumping mild maritime air northward, is occurring much more frequently now in winter, as Global Warming asserts itself more strongly.

The greatest magnitude of the warming seen over the past 30-40 years in the Arctic, has been in winter, for this reason. And this makes perfect sense. Since our sun angle in winter this far north is so low, the only way mild weather (defined arbitrarily, by me, thank you very much, as -15C or warmer) can occur is if warmer, maritime air is circulated north by the jet stream. Since there is more heat energy being retained in the atmosphere now that the atmospheric CO2 level is 390 ppm (up from 280 70 years ago, and rising 3-5 ppm annually), this method of global heat re-distribution occurs more frequently, is more persistent, and of greater magnitude now, than say, 30 or more years ago.

The warmer winters then don't allow as thick of ice cover to develop over the Arctic ocean, snow cover over the land is generally not as thick and persistent, and when the deep cold spells (-25C to -50C) do occur, they don't last as long. Which is why permafrost is also melting rapidly now, especially in the southern half of the Arctic. Which in itself, is a "positive feedback", since vast amounts of CO2 and methane is released when it thaws and melts.

An excellent example of this occurred just yesterday around interior Alaska. A very strong southerly chinook flow, pushed mild, maritime air, above freezing in the lower levels, north across the Alaska Range. Temperatures around Fairbanks popped up to 3-4C, and strong south winds surfaced in a few areas, which is very unusual.

Even more unusual, is this 5-day forecast height of the 500 millibar pressure (a level in the atmosphere generally between 4900-6000 metres, depending on the temperature, the higher these heights, the warmer the airmass), right. Which is from the generally most accurate numerical weather forecast model, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting). Because all the western European countries pool their best researchers and funding, this model is the World's premiere tool for looking out 3-7 days ahead. The U.S. medium range model, the GFS (Global Forecast System) is also quite good, but the ECMWF usually tends to outperform it slightly in the higher latitudes. What this is showing, is an incredibly strong, nearly record-breaking, warm summer-like high pressure ridge, developing over Alaska at Day 5 (wed. 02DEC09) (the flow is parallel to the countours, clockwise around a high pressure ridge).

If this occurs, which seems likely, it will bring our second, even warmer, above-freezing episode to Interior Alaska this winter. Temperatures could conceivably reach up to 6-10C! Which would break some daily records, and begin to melt our snowpack, since at least two days of these conditions may occur.

Since it is winter, the airmass is not as warm, with a ridge of this magnitude, as it would be in summer, when solar insolation heats the ground. If this ridge were over Alaska in June or July, temperatures would easily reach 30-36C (86-95F), instead of the just 6-10C (43-50F) expected next week. Still, this would be 20C above average, for this time of year!

Many people have been asking me about the more turbulent weather we've been getting in Interior Alaska over the past 20 years, stronger temperature cycles, more thunderstorms, and more extremes in general, in drought, and heavy precipitation. I don't hesitate to tell them, this is just a taste of things to come. Because if this is what we're seeing from an increase of 330 to 390 ppm CO2 over the past 30-40 years, what will we be seeing when we reach 500-550 ppm CO2 in 20-30 years?! Cheers.