SIX METRES UNDER
No, we are not writing about the tenth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks on the World Trade Center, and Pentagon, in the US. Terrible, murderous tragedies, and crimes they were, with devastating consequences for the people there, and eventually, throughout the Middle East. There have been many good articles written these last few days about this anniversary, so here are a few, if you are so inclined.
This one, below, by Chris Hedges, sums the situation up quite nicely. He was actually there in NYC and a witness to World Trade Center attacks.
In addition, this article, by Noam Chomsky, below, offers his always insightful analysis on the bigger geopolitical picture, of the events.
http://www.truth-out.org/after-911-was-war-only-option/1315582873
No folks, what we are writing about today is of much more significance to us all, than what happened in New York City and Washington DC ten years ago. And yet, you won't be hearing much about it in the US corporate media. This is from a French news agency. The Arctic ocean sea ice concentration, as of today, has reached a new record low, since accurate measurements began, in 1972. This is a very serious trend/occurrence, which we'll be discussing in more detail, after the article. Note especially the title of it. It would almost be funny, but really, tragic, to listen to the crackpot GOP/Fascist party presidential candidates, if they were asked to comment on the findings presented here (which they won't be).
No folks, what we are writing about today is of much more significance to us all, than what happened in New York City and Washington DC ten years ago. And yet, you won't be hearing much about it in the US corporate media. This is from a French news agency. The Arctic ocean sea ice concentration, as of today, has reached a new record low, since accurate measurements began, in 1972. This is a very serious trend/occurrence, which we'll be discussing in more detail, after the article. Note especially the title of it. It would almost be funny, but really, tragic, to listen to the crackpot GOP/Fascist party presidential candidates, if they were asked to comment on the findings presented here (which they won't be).
Published on Sunday, September 11, 2011 by Agence France-Presse
Arctic Ice Cover Hits Historic Low, Due to Global Warming Says Scientists
The area covered by Arctic sea ice reached its lowest point this week since the start of satellite observations in 1972, German researchers announced.
The new mark is about half-a-per cent under his team's measurements of the previous record, which occurred on September 16, 2007, he said.
According to the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), the record set on that date was 4.1 million sq km. The discrepancy, Heygster explained by phone, was due to slightly different data sets and algorithms.
"But the results are internally consistent in both cases," he said.
Arctic ice cover plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate by reflecting sunlight and keeping the polar region cool. Retreating summer sea ice - 50 per cent smaller in area than four decades ago - is described by scientists as both a measure and a driver of global warming, with negative impacts on a local and planetary scale.It is also further evidence of a strong human imprint on climate patterns in recent decades, the researchers said.
"The sea ice retreat can no more be explained with the natural variability from one year to the next, caused by weather influence," Heygster said in an statement released by the university.
"Climate models show, rather, that the reduction is related to the man-made global warming which, due to the albedo effect, is particularly pronounced in the Arctic."
Albedo increases when an area once covered by reflective snow or ice - which bounces 80 per cent of the Sun's radiative force back into space - is replaced by deep blue sea, which absorbs the heat instead.
Temperatures in the Arctic region have risen more than twice as fast as the global average over the last half century.
The Arctic ice cover has also become significantly thinner in recent decades, though it is not possible to measure the shrinkage in thickness as precisely as for surface area, the statement said.
Satellite tracking since 1972 shows that the extent of Arctic sea ice is dropping at about 11 per cent per decade.
NSIDC director Mark Serreze has said that summer ice cover could disappear entirely by 2030, leaving nothing but heat-trapping "blue ocean."
The NSIDC likewise monitors Arctic ice cover on a daily basis, but has not announced record-low ice cover. Data posted on its website as of Saturday only covered the period through September 6.
By last week, it said, sea ice is almost completely gone from the channels of the Northwest Passage. The southern route - also known as Amunden's Route - was also ice free, as was the Northern Sea Route along Siberia.
But even as the thaw opens shipping lanes, it disrupts the lives and livelihoods of indigenous peoples, and poses a severe threat to fauna, including polar bears, ice seals and walruses, conservation groups say.
"This stunning loss of Arctic sea ice is yet another wake-up call that climate change is here now and is having devastating effects around the world," said Shaye Wolf, climate science director at the Center for Biological Diversity in San Francisco.
The last time the Arctic was incontestably free of summertime ice was 125,000 years ago, during the height of the last major interglacial period, known as the Eemian. Air temperatures in the Arctic were warmer than today, and sea level was also four to six meters higher because the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets had partly melted. Global average temperatures today are close to the maximum warmth seen during the Eemian.
Ok folks, here's the bad news. As we've documented in previous articles on Global Warming,
and,
and, as the above article reminds us, the last time atmospheric CO2 levels were as high as they are now, 390 ppm, global sea levels were up to six metres (that's about 20 feet) higher. That would put a sizable chunk of Florida under, much of the Gulf of Mexico coastal margins, all the access routes here into Anchorage, and worst of all, low-lying areas in Asia home to billions of people (portions of India, Bangladesh, Indo-China, Malaysia, Thailand, etc..).
Also remember, in 40 more years, since nothing is being done to limit CO2 and methane emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, and indeed, with the development of the Alberta Tar Sands, an incredibly destructive and massive CO2-releasing project,
global atmospheric CO2 concentrations will have reached 510-550 ppm. It's clear now from researchers studying the geologic record, and measuring CO2 levels in the atmosphere from 100,000 to 250,000 years ago (from trapped air frozen in glaciers, core samples from all over the World have been analysed), that global sea-levels rise in lock-step with CO2 concentrations. And that the ancient CO2 increases were likely due to naturally occurring volcanism. These sea-level rises were caused by the melting of parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet, due to the warming from the increased CO2 concentrations.
The key question is, how long will it take for the Greenland melting to occur, which will then cause sea levels to "catch up" with the increased CO2 levels we've been, and will be seeing. This is why the decreasing Arctic sea ice is so crucial to the picture. Because more open water now in the Arctic is a "positive feedback". Open water absorbs tremendous amounts of heat from the sun, and slowly releases it through the course of the year. This also means, it becomes more difficult, if not impossible, for the ensuing season(s) ice cover in the Arctic to become as thick, and long-lasting, as previously. It takes longer to freeze in the fall, freezes thinner over the winter, and then is able to melt off faster in spring and summer. Allowing more solar radiation to be absorbed, continuing/amplifying the cycle. In addition, frozen methane deposits still present in the Arctic permafrost, and underwater in the shallower waters of the Arctic ocean, are vulnerable to melting with the increasing warming occurring in the Arctic. Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, 22X more powerful than CO2. Uncontrolled emissions of this would be catastrophic to the global climate system. There are signs that this is beginning to occur. http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/31-9
More heat from the Arctic ocean then, will be able to melt the glaciers/ice sheets in Greenland faster, which will then bring about the six metre or more (because remember, we'll be at 550 ppm CO2 by 2051) sea level rises. This is why we came up with the projections we did, from our scenario from the year 2045. http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2010/06/run.html
A very interesting web-site, The Cryosphere Today, allows you to extract global sea ice imagery/data, and even look at side-by-side comparisons, from different dates.
Here is a side-by-side comparison of the Arctic sea ice, 30 years apart, as measured by polar-orbiting satellites. It doesn't take a physicist to see the trend here. Note how much more open water is now present along the Alaskan, Canadian, and Eastern Siberian coastlines. This greater extent of open water not only absorbs more heat, but also transfers more moisture to the atmosphere, affecting global weather patterns and causing more frequent heavy-precipitation events and flooding.
Will humanity be able to adapt to these coming changes quickly enough? If sea level rises of six metres or more were to occur in 20-40 years, would the different countries affected be able to re-build infra-structure, ports, terminals, etc.., in time to keep up with this? Because what we take for granted as "civilisation" is dependent upon the global transfer of resources, food, oil, timber, minerals/ores/metals, manufactured products, almost all by shipping. What will happen if that is disrupted? This is the future we will be facing, 30-50 years from now. Even if massive full-scale efforts were undertaken by all the "developed" countries of the World to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and transition to renewable, non-emitting energy sources immediately, this is still going to happen. But since the current global predatory capitalistic structure, epitomised by the U.S. socio-political-economic system, is so entrenched, and continually being spread by force of arms throughout the World due to multi-national corporate greed, this is not going to happen for at least 15 to 20 more years. That's how we see it here at the Alaska Progressive Review.
HEADING UP THE PASS
Friday last, the staff of the Alaska Progressive Review decided we needed a fast-pack, one of our 40-65 KM one-day hikes, to enjoy a rare, dry, sunny fall day. We had two goals in mind, to do it all on foot/bike from the Chugach Front Research Centre, and, to reach a spot where we could spread the ashes of our departed former research assistant Homer, in a place he used to enjoy.
We started the day at 0830 in the company of our friend Celine Van Breukelen, who wished to accompany us, at least part of the way. We biked the first 3 km or so to the base of the Konoya Point trail, which is also our daily running trail. Stashing the bikes here, we started up the steep, but beautiful forested route. Unfortunately, at about the 400 metre level, we came upon a large pile of very fresh brown bear scat. No more than a few hours old.
This was bad news. Several hikers had been charged by a brown bear near here over three weeks ago. Since Celine was going to turn back early, she would have had to come back through here by herself, without the protection from our intrepid assistant editor Mattie. We decided it was not worth the risk, and headed back down.
All was not lost. We then biked down to the Spencer Loop, in the Hillside Park ski trail network. Stashing our bikes halfway up the largest hill on the loop, we then started walking up the "secret cutoff" from it, that connects to the beginning of the Powerline Trail.
From here, it was fast and easy hiking, we quickly jumped on to the Middle Fork Loop Trail, which angles back on the north side of the South Fork of Campbell Creek Canyon, toward the Powerline Trail, on the other side, eventually re-connecting. After a few hours, Celine had to turn back, but at least she didn't have to worry so much about potential brown bear encounters. Heading further in up the Middle Fork Loop Trail, we could see the beautiful fall colours on the adjacent hillsides.
This trail eventually crosses the South Fork of Campbell Creek, and then connects with the Powerline Trail.
By the time Mattie and I got a few more KM in on this, it was already 2pm, and time for lunch. But we were seeing some nice sights already, like this coyote prowling around.
I always love seeing wild canids when we travel, so this was a treat.
Even Mattie was interested, but not threatened, she didn't try and give chase. 
We decided to head up the trail to Ship Lake Pass. A place we all loved, and which Homer really enjoyed being in, he'd been with us there on four different expeditions. Just before heading in on this trail, the fall colours on 1433 metre "The Wedge" were particularly beautiful, with the mountain hemlock trees in the foreground.
It took another 90 min. to ascend the 8 KM up to the 1268 metre pass. It was quite cool and windy up there, easily 50-70 kph winds, with a temperature of 5-6C (39-41F). But the views up here are always stunning, and the fact that we could reach this in six hours on foot/bike from the CFRC, was even better.
Before I could do anything else, after reaching the top of the pass, Mattie was off, racing after these sheep. They are way too fast for her though, so she had no way of catching them. She came back very winded after just a half KM of that!
After putting on extra layers and warming up, it was time to release Homer's ashes back into the environment, in this incredibly beautiful place he loved. Now he's at home here.
This is the view looking east, toward the highest peaks in the Chugach. We've been here in every season now, and still can't get enough.
At the bottom of the pass, jewel-like Ship Lake gleams in the cool autumn sunshine. This is our backyard, and we will always make trips in here every year, on foot and bike, from the Chugach Front Research Centre. How fortunate we are.
Mattie, of course, is completely at home and in her element here in these settings. Always "on it", that is, on alert for the approach of other animals, or people, completely fearless and ready to protect your lead editor, and whoever else might be along on our trips. Thank you Mattie!
After spending about a half-hour up on the pass, enjoying the view, and remembering the wonderful times we had with Homer here, it was time for the long trek back.
About halfway back to the Powerline trail, we spied three moose off to the side. I asked Mattie not to bother them, and she listened, staying by my side, while we enjoyed watching them browse in the fall sun. But not for too long, we still had a good 20 KM or more of hiking, and then some biking, to do.
By the time we made it back to the CFRC, 12 hours had passed, and we reckon that I had walked about 48 KM, and biked about 13. Mattie, with all her side trips, and detours, easily must have done two to three times that. But she can't help herself, with her abundant, exuberant energy, and it always inspires me, just watching her. We were very happy we accomplished our goals and were able to put Homer to rest, in his beautiful Pass. Cheers.
