A MORE PERFECT STORM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm

The "Perfect Storm" that occurred off the northeast US coast in 10/1991 was originally an "extra-tropical" low pressure system, fed by the jet stream and overall tropical-subpolar temperature gradients. It produced it's greatest damage and all the fatalities in this phase of it's existence over the eastern US and southeastern Canada. This was Hollywood-dramatised in the movie of the same name, which came out several years later. The storm ended moving further into the subtropics and then transitioned into a category 1 hurricane. This is different from the "Frankenstorm" Hurricane Sandy, now brewing just off the SE US coast. Sandy had been up to a category 2 hurricane a few days previously in the Caribbean, she has weakened moving further north.

But what happens next is what is so interesting, unusual, and possibly, unprecedented! More will be known within 72 hours as she moves ashore, right now models are mostly pointing toward the Delaware River outlet. But Sandy's evolution is just the opposite of the "Perfect Storm" of 1991. In Sandy's case, she has been/will be weakening considerably as a hurricane moving out of the tropics, but within 48 hours from now will get fed by the contrast of colder/drier air originally moving south from the Arctic. In the form of this low pressure trough over the eastern US, on this mornings 500 mb (usually around 5300-5900 metres, or centred around 18,000 ft.) analysis. Sandy shows up as the small upper-level feature off of the Florida coast.

 

Then she will be undergoing a transition from hurricane-type structure/processes, to an extratropical system, which is much different. And which has not been studied much, as it rarely occurs. Sandy's movement too, is contributing to it's interest. So whilst models are forecasting tropical storm type conditions as it moves ashore, the scale of them will be much larger, and for a longer period of time. Likely to produce severe flooding, from heavy rains, and storm-generated surges on top of the monthly high tide in many areas.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/federal-officials-warn-of-hurricane-sandys-rare-damage-potential-15170

We will certainly be offering you a post-storm assessment, several days after her peak. But for now, just wanted to bring it to your attention. It will be an event of some significance in the next 5 days.

 

Today though, on our usual daily scan, when we saw this headline like something from a U.K. tabloid, but with a "liberal" slant to it, we had no choice but to dive in and take a look.

 

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/27-6  You've seen much like this before here with us, but Juan Cole put it together very nicely. A little commentary of our own as well, first.

 

We obviously don't envision a "vengeful Mother Nature" throwing this storm at the eastern US as punishment. Any more than Katrina was for the Gulf Coast, or Andrew for Florida. It is what it is, and must be dealt with. Generally speaking, in all powerful and destructive storms in modern history, the well-off are able to flee quickly/safely, while mainly poor people can't, who then can't rebuild quickly/easily. We hope for the best for everyone there. Worst-case scenarios have been discussed involving the flooding of parts of the NYC subway system, among other things.

 

The Alaska Progressive Review does like the tabloidy/seedy headline though. We think it was either Pat Robertson or Jerry Fallwell, the conservative Christian televangelists, who pinned Katrina on the sins of New Orleans, etc.. back in 2005.

 

Published on Saturday, October 27, 2012 by Informed Comment

Candidates Flee East Coast as Frankenstorm Takes Revenge for their Ignoring Climate Change

by Juan Cole

Mitt Romney and Joe Biden have canceled campaign events planned for this weekend at Virginia Beach as a massive storm bears down on the east coast of the US. The candidates are fleeing from the East Coast, even though they won’t talk about the key environmental issue of our time.
The candidates in this year’s presidential election completely ignored climate change in their debates and their campaigning, even thought it is the most deadly issue facing this country and all humankind. Human beings are dumping massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning coal, natural gas and petroleum at feverish rates. They have already increased temperatures significantly since 1750, and are on track to put up the average surface temperature of the earth by 5 degrees C. or 9 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century, enough to turn everyplace on earth over time into a sweating tropics, melt all surface ice, and, over the long term, submerge a third of the current land mass. A global state of emergency would be necessary to keep the temperature increase to 2 degrees C. or less, but the window is rapidly closing for this curbing of disaster.
 

Big oil is pouring money into the Romney campaign or superpacs supporting him, so as to make sure they keep their tax breaks but those for wind power are abolished. The power of big Carbon money is preventing climate change from being discussed in the campaign, even though it affects every American voter. Romney’s energy policies will cause global disaster, but even Obama doesn’t seem to realize the severity and urgency of the problem (or else he does and feels his hands are tied).

 

A new study appearing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that uses accurate tide measurements since 1923 removes any doubt that hurricanes are more frequent and stronger in warm years (the number of warm years has steadily increased over the past century and especially in the past decade).

[pdf] For every increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit, US hurricanes will likely get 2% stronger (i.e. they are already 5% stronger than 2 centuries ago). In hurricanes, a 5% increase in ferocity matters quite a lot.

 

One mechanism for the increased severity is that higher temperatures produce more high-altitude clouds, called “deep convective clouds,” associated increased rainfall.

 

One recent study [pdf] found that torrential downpours in the United States are occurring a third more often than in 1948. New England has been the worst hit, with torrential downpours 85% more common now than in 1948. Note that these findings are based on actual historical records, and are not a matter of projection.

 

Across the board, storms are 10% more intense now than when Truman was president.

Hurricanes are a more contentious issue than storms but models show that the speed of hurricane winds could increase by as much as 13 percent over the next century as a result of our production of carbon dioxide, and rainfall rates will increase 10-31 percent in hurricanes. Because of the rising level of the seas, hurricanes will cause larger storm surges.
 

A Tel Aviv researcher has shown that every one degree increase Celsius produces a 10% increase in lightning, with the attendant dangers of increased forest and other fires.

 

Those who talk about solar energy being “more expensive” than coal or natural gas are not figuring in the expensiveness of climate change. In many markets, wind and solar are already competitive, and if the damage hydrocarbons are doing to our economy were taken into account, they’d be the only game in town. [but in capitalism as it exists now in most of the world, the only thing sacred, or of value, are short term gain/profits; human life and environmental health must fit within that bracket, eds..].
 
One of the many indexes of the failure of American democracy is that our candidates can’t even publicly say the name of our worst nemesis.

© 2012 Juan Cole

Juan Cole teaches Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan. His latest book, Engaging the Muslim World, is just out in a revised paperback edition from Palgrave Macmillan. He is also the author of Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). He has appeared widely on television, radio and on op-ed pages as a commentator on Middle East affairs, and has a regular column at Salon.com. He has written, edited, or translated 14 books and has authored 60 journal articles. His weblog on the contemporary Middle East is Informed Comment.

ELECTORAL THOUGHTS [and] HELPING HANDS

Now that the fall 2012 national elections are just about upon us, we thought we'd share a little with you the APR's view on the current line-up, as there are some interesting potential developments. Firstly, we've never taken much stock in the US presidential races, as being capable of producing rapid, substantial systemic change. As the old saying goes, "if voting was so effective, it would be illegal". The US duopoly of the Republicans/Democrats continues to argue about issues that are really distractions to the masses, while ignoring the most pressing concerns, global warming, resource depletion/environmental collapse, increasing inequality (nationally and globally), and built-in economic instability (for all but the most wealthy). Because they are funded by the most powerful trans-national corporate comglomerates in the fossil fuel, financial, pharmaceutical, and weapons industries.

 

And all the major improvements in US society over the past 150 years, labour rights, women's and non-white people's civil rights, environmental protection, etc.., have only occurred after and because of sustained mass movements engaging in direct action, protests, boycotts, strikes, etc.. Which eventually forced politicians at all levels to at least begin paying attention, and make at least token, or incremental changes in policy.

All that said though, we still feel it is important to vote, as much to send a message, as anything else. We've long been Green-oriented here at the APR, feeling that the Green parties throughout the World offer us the most logical and workable ways to bring about positive changes in our political and economic systems.

 

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/10/22/enough-of-this-obamination/

The above article offers a quick summation of why we don't look to the Democratic Party, at least on a national level, for any hope in addressing the major problems this country and the World are facing.

 

And the current duopoly knows that they can't compete with truth-telling members from other political parties, who are increasingly being shut out from the US political system, as this article attests:

http://truth-out.org/news/item/12168-green-party-ticket-arrested-at-presidential-debate

Green Party Ticket Arrested at Presidential Debate

Wednesday, 17 October 2012 13:11 By Allison Kilkenny, The Nation |

Jill Stein, the presumed Green Party presidential candidate, during an interview in her car in Roxbury, Mass., July 5, 2012. (Photo: Charlie Mahoney / The New York Times) In addition to being entirely shut out of this year's presidential debates, Green Party Presidential Candidate Jill Stein and her running mate, Cheri Honkala, were arrested for "blocking traffic" as they attempted to enter the debate at Hofstra University. The women were detained despite the fact that, in the video of the arrests, the police are much more of an impediment on traffic than the two candidates.

Stein and Honkala have been shut out, despite the fact that the Green Party ticket will be on an estimated 85 percent of ballots this election. The Commission on Presidential Debates stipulates that a candidate must garner at least 15 percent in national polls in order to participate, but national television exposure is a key factor in generating that kind of broad support. Hence, shutting out third party candidates creates a cyclical suppression in which candidates can't reach the 15 percent mark precisely because they are denied access to a large audience.

Additionally, there are all kinds of hurdles placed in third party candidate's paths as they attempt to collect signatures and support. Ralph Nader was famously kicked off the Oregon ballot in 2004 by the state Supreme Court for "fraud" and "circulator irregularities," despite the fact that Nader submitted far more county-verified voter signatures than the 15,306 needed on sheets in full compliance will all statues and all written rules. And that's only one example of numerous cases of third party suppression.

Shutting out third party candidates from debates obviously inflicts damage on the democratic process, but it also waters down the debate. Stein would have been a valuable asset to the dialogue, particularly when 20-year-old Jeremy Epstein posed a question about the bleak future for soon-to-be-graduates.

Here is Stein talking to Forbes' Peter J. Reilly about her fears for a generation that is being crushed by overwhelming student debt, and how she would prefer we bail out students rather than banks.

Stein would have been the only candidate to propose holding the banks accountable for the systemic fraud that led to the 2008 subprime disaster. President Obama and Governor Romney, having embraced the "look forward, not backward" mantra, refer only to the "tough economic times" in passing, as though it was some terrible bygone era that will never be repeated. In reality, a disastrous bubble burst will definitely happen again without oversight, regulation, and prosecutions of guilty Wall Street firms, and Stein is the only somewhat prominent candidate proposing that.

Stein would have also been the only candidate to propose significantly scaling back on military and security spending, and drone strikes, which have made us less safe, according to the candidate.

Then there would have been the added perk of having a conversation about the environment involving a candidate who utters the phrase "climate change."
As for the dreaded "spoiler," accusation, Honkala says, "You can't really spoil something that's already rotten."

The folks that I've been traveling around with and talking to for 25 years are crying because they're visiting their loved ones in prison, are crying because they are losing their loved ones because they don't have health care.

Honkala would have been the only candidate to talk at length about poverty and poor people. While Obama, Romney, and the vice-presidential candidates debated about the status of the "middle class"—a vague term that has come to mean everyone who is not poor or our one percent overlords—and President Obama gave a lightning-quick shout-out to the poor, who he referred to as, "folks who are striving to get into the middle class," Honkala co-founded the Kensington Welfare Rights Union and the Poor People's Economic Human Rights Campaign, and is a passionate advocate for families struggling to get by on a few hundred dollars a month.

"Those are people we need to start caring about and doing something about and not just putting out this rhetoric, like (Vice President Joe) Biden was yesterday, saying, 'We've got to begin caring about Main Street, not just Wall Street,'" she said.
 

This story originally appeared in The Nation.
Copyright © 2012 The Nation – distributed by Agence Global.

 

So get out there and vote with your conscience, we certainly will be! There are also some exciting ballot propositions on hand in many different states this year.

 

One of the most significant is Proposition 37, on the California state ballot.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/19

 

This would mandate that food be labeled if it contains genetically modified ingredients, as it is required in most of the European countries. The amount of corporate money fighting this is incredible, because if it passes, many other states will likely follow suit. Some of the same people involved with the tobacco companies' spreading of lies and obfuscation about smoking's harmfulness are now involved in the corporate fight against Prop. 37., and are using the same dirty tricks.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/23-9

We greatly hope the people of California pass Proposition 37, don't you want to know what is in your food, and if it is safe or not? 

 

In addition, several states have propositions to either decriminalise, or even legalise Marijuana, with one state proposition, Colorado's, actually proposing to have the state become involved in it's sale and distribution, to gain needed revenue. We fully support and hope these pass as well, as they will help bring to a much needed end the malignant US "War" on drugs, which over the course of it's 40+ year run, has been really a war on the poor and people of colour. Responsible for the fact that the US now has the greatest actual number of prisoners of any country on Earth (3+ million), as well as the greatest percentage of it's populace locked up.

http://www.alternet.org/11-enemies-marijuana-legalization?paging=off

 

We will be sure to offer our commentary and provide you with any significant results, after tallies from the interesting 2012 fall elections occur.

 

                                                 HELPING HANDS

 

Your lead editor here at the APR has had some accidents and injuries over the course of my few decades of active engagement with our physical environment, in the avid pursuit of my interests in long-distance hiking, running, skiing, and wilderness travel.

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/05/kesugi-ridge-experience.html

 

Which beside physically sustaining and renewing me, spending time in these pursuits in wilderness and less-developed areas, provides us all here at the APR with necessary spiritual sustenance and renewal.

Unfortunately this week, during one of the APR's routine daily running outings on the edge of our neighbourhood, here at the Chugach Front, I sustained one of my worst-ever injuries, which will keep me bound to the CFRC for a few months, until complete recuperation is gained.

 

The story is as follows. As soon as we left the street in our neighborhood, and entered onto the trails, around 1030 in the morning, we noticed a man working on a downed section of a backyard fence. He waved us down, and said a grizzly bear had knocked it over a few hours before, and had been rooting through his yard, looking for food. Our cold wet summer, followed by the September windstorms ruined much of our various wild berry crops, which is probably why the bear in question felt the need to pursue other food sources, before holing up for the winter.

 

Realistically, this should have made us turn back on the spot. But, we kept going, albeit rather nervously on my part. About fifteen minutes later, as we were on a power-line trail, about a half km in the woods from the houses,  I heard a rustling noise behind me. My assistant editor Mattie, and research assistant Kluane were both slightly ahead of me. Turning around, yet still running, my left leg jammed into a hole or rut (which I couldn't see, facing the other way), while my upper body kept moving at about a 7:30 pace. My left leg snapped, just below the tibial plateau below the knee, the pain was incredible, and the sound was gruesome. Whatever it was that had been behind us (which I never did see) was probably scared off by this! I dropped immediately to the ground, knowing I had a very serious injury out in the cold (it was -10C or about 14F), away from any assistance. After rolling around for about five minutes, I was able to slowly get to my feet, but immediately knew the left leg was useless. I was already quite scared, knowing we were over 1/2 km from the houses, with no one in sight.

 

Fortunately Mattie and Kluane both stayed with me while I stumbled and crawled the distance toward the houses, yelling for help all the while. It took us about 15 min. before we saw an older couple through the trees, walking their dog. I yelled as loud as I could, and they came over, and immediately rendered assistance. They both grabbed ahold of me and helped me stumble to the main trail, right next to the houses. Then Jim, the husband, ran for his car, which he was able to manoeuver onto the trail, and loaded us all into it. He then delivered us all back to the Chugach Front Research Centre, and even stayed until the paramedics came, after I had called 911 (I was in no shape to drive myself to the hospital). Without this wonderful couple's assistance, it would have taken me much longer to get help, and possibly would have aggravated my already serious leg injury.

 

During the ambulance ride to the Alaska Regional Hospital emergency room, my blood pressure was spiking at 150/90, due to the intense pain and stress I was under. It usually is around 110/68 or so. I was taken right into the e.r. and received immediate attention, first in the form of a strong pain pill (which greatly helped in about 5 min.), then a detailed examination. X rays and a CT scan were taken, and it was thought I had a fractured patella and tibia initially. A consultation with an orthopedist was scheduled for the following day. This is what my left leg looked like just after I had arrived at the e.r., note how much swelling is present, in comparison to the right leg.

One thing I thought interesting was that the e.r. physician never gave me a real prognosis of the injury, he just said the orthopedist would. But after he departed, the attending R.N. there, a friendly athletic-looking younger man in his early 30s, told me it was very serious, and that I would need an operation. I think he knew we were kindred spirits in the athletic sense, and decided I should know the situation right away.

 

Arriving back to the CFRC around 1530 (after leaving for our ill-fated run at 1030), there then followed a horribly painful night, even with pain medication and a leg brace, any little movement of my left leg was excruciating. I did not get much sleep.

 

The next day I met with the orthopedic surgeon, and he showed me the x-rays and CT scan images. The patella was actually not broken, but there was a 9 cm long diagonal fracture of the upper tibia, where it connects to the knee joint, about 5 mm wide. The surgeon said I would need a plate and some screws put in to mend the tibia, and a clean up of some small fragments. The operation was scheduled for the next day, at 0730. After another sleepless, painful night, I couldn't get in to the scheduled surgery fast enough, which was at Anchorage's other big hospital, Providence. After our pre-op procedures, a "femoral block" was established for my leg, an intra-venous introduction of strong anesthesia which numbed it. My first real relief since the accident! Then the surgeon and anaesthetist explained their procedures, a plunger was pushed, and down I went.

 

Waking up what seemed like an instant later (but was three hours), I had my leg brace on, and a thick set of bandages around the knee, and was not in any real pain! After slowly coming to, drinking some water and resting, to make sure I had no post-operative nausea, I was able to eat a sandwich by early afternoon, then return to the CFRC by early evening.

Here are two views of the hardware that was installed to knit the tibia back together.

 

Now it needs mentioning that I do have real health insurance, through my regular employer, and that accidents are covered, in theory, close to 100%. We know that the total sum for all the care I received (which was excellent, and for which we are greatly satisfied and appreciative) will easily be at least 20,000 USD, perhaps more, maybe even 40,000. We'll let you know when we find out. I would still be in excruciating pain had I not had the health insurance, in all likelihood I would have refused an operation, knowing how expensive it would have been, and that I would be unable to pay for it. Think about how many millions of people in the US have to make decisions like this every year, and suffer needlessly, because we are the ONLY industrialised nation without universal health care coverage. 

 

I am now slowly healing, still in some pain, but relieved in knowing that in a few months I'll be able to be back out in our wilderness settings with the rest of the APR staff, doing all the things we enjoy. And wishing that everyone in our country had the good fortune I have had, to have recourse to excellent medical care, and hope for real recovery to a serious injury or health situation.  This whole situation also reminds us here at the APR just how reliant we all are on the assistance and care of others in our daily lives, and re-affirms our faith in the essential well-meaning of people, when emergencies arise. We also look forward to seeing and thanking our kind and helping neighbours in a few months, when we are out on the trails again after my recovery. As well, if anyone wishes to take our assistant editor Mattie and research assistant Kluane for outings, please feel free. Until I stage a complete recovery, I will only be able to offer them short walks whilst I hobble about on crutches. Cheers.