A MORE PERFECT STORM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm

The "Perfect Storm" that occurred off the northeast US coast in 10/1991 was originally an "extra-tropical" low pressure system, fed by the jet stream and overall tropical-subpolar temperature gradients. It produced it's greatest damage and all the fatalities in this phase of it's existence over the eastern US and southeastern Canada. This was Hollywood-dramatised in the movie of the same name, which came out several years later. The storm ended moving further into the subtropics and then transitioned into a category 1 hurricane. This is different from the "Frankenstorm" Hurricane Sandy, now brewing just off the SE US coast. Sandy had been up to a category 2 hurricane a few days previously in the Caribbean, she has weakened moving further north.

But what happens next is what is so interesting, unusual, and possibly, unprecedented! More will be known within 72 hours as she moves ashore, right now models are mostly pointing toward the Delaware River outlet. But Sandy's evolution is just the opposite of the "Perfect Storm" of 1991. In Sandy's case, she has been/will be weakening considerably as a hurricane moving out of the tropics, but within 48 hours from now will get fed by the contrast of colder/drier air originally moving south from the Arctic. In the form of this low pressure trough over the eastern US, on this mornings 500 mb (usually around 5300-5900 metres, or centred around 18,000 ft.) analysis. Sandy shows up as the small upper-level feature off of the Florida coast.

 

Then she will be undergoing a transition from hurricane-type structure/processes, to an extratropical system, which is much different. And which has not been studied much, as it rarely occurs. Sandy's movement too, is contributing to it's interest. So whilst models are forecasting tropical storm type conditions as it moves ashore, the scale of them will be much larger, and for a longer period of time. Likely to produce severe flooding, from heavy rains, and storm-generated surges on top of the monthly high tide in many areas.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/federal-officials-warn-of-hurricane-sandys-rare-damage-potential-15170

We will certainly be offering you a post-storm assessment, several days after her peak. But for now, just wanted to bring it to your attention. It will be an event of some significance in the next 5 days.

 

Today though, on our usual daily scan, when we saw this headline like something from a U.K. tabloid, but with a "liberal" slant to it, we had no choice but to dive in and take a look.

 

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/27-6  You've seen much like this before here with us, but Juan Cole put it together very nicely. A little commentary of our own as well, first.

 

We obviously don't envision a "vengeful Mother Nature" throwing this storm at the eastern US as punishment. Any more than Katrina was for the Gulf Coast, or Andrew for Florida. It is what it is, and must be dealt with. Generally speaking, in all powerful and destructive storms in modern history, the well-off are able to flee quickly/safely, while mainly poor people can't, who then can't rebuild quickly/easily. We hope for the best for everyone there. Worst-case scenarios have been discussed involving the flooding of parts of the NYC subway system, among other things.

 

The Alaska Progressive Review does like the tabloidy/seedy headline though. We think it was either Pat Robertson or Jerry Fallwell, the conservative Christian televangelists, who pinned Katrina on the sins of New Orleans, etc.. back in 2005.

 

Published on Saturday, October 27, 2012 by Informed Comment

Candidates Flee East Coast as Frankenstorm Takes Revenge for their Ignoring Climate Change

by Juan Cole

Mitt Romney and Joe Biden have canceled campaign events planned for this weekend at Virginia Beach as a massive storm bears down on the east coast of the US. The candidates are fleeing from the East Coast, even though they won’t talk about the key environmental issue of our time.
The candidates in this year’s presidential election completely ignored climate change in their debates and their campaigning, even thought it is the most deadly issue facing this country and all humankind. Human beings are dumping massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning coal, natural gas and petroleum at feverish rates. They have already increased temperatures significantly since 1750, and are on track to put up the average surface temperature of the earth by 5 degrees C. or 9 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century, enough to turn everyplace on earth over time into a sweating tropics, melt all surface ice, and, over the long term, submerge a third of the current land mass. A global state of emergency would be necessary to keep the temperature increase to 2 degrees C. or less, but the window is rapidly closing for this curbing of disaster.
 

Big oil is pouring money into the Romney campaign or superpacs supporting him, so as to make sure they keep their tax breaks but those for wind power are abolished. The power of big Carbon money is preventing climate change from being discussed in the campaign, even though it affects every American voter. Romney’s energy policies will cause global disaster, but even Obama doesn’t seem to realize the severity and urgency of the problem (or else he does and feels his hands are tied).

 

A new study appearing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that uses accurate tide measurements since 1923 removes any doubt that hurricanes are more frequent and stronger in warm years (the number of warm years has steadily increased over the past century and especially in the past decade).

[pdf] For every increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit, US hurricanes will likely get 2% stronger (i.e. they are already 5% stronger than 2 centuries ago). In hurricanes, a 5% increase in ferocity matters quite a lot.

 

One mechanism for the increased severity is that higher temperatures produce more high-altitude clouds, called “deep convective clouds,” associated increased rainfall.

 

One recent study [pdf] found that torrential downpours in the United States are occurring a third more often than in 1948. New England has been the worst hit, with torrential downpours 85% more common now than in 1948. Note that these findings are based on actual historical records, and are not a matter of projection.

 

Across the board, storms are 10% more intense now than when Truman was president.

Hurricanes are a more contentious issue than storms but models show that the speed of hurricane winds could increase by as much as 13 percent over the next century as a result of our production of carbon dioxide, and rainfall rates will increase 10-31 percent in hurricanes. Because of the rising level of the seas, hurricanes will cause larger storm surges.
 

A Tel Aviv researcher has shown that every one degree increase Celsius produces a 10% increase in lightning, with the attendant dangers of increased forest and other fires.

 

Those who talk about solar energy being “more expensive” than coal or natural gas are not figuring in the expensiveness of climate change. In many markets, wind and solar are already competitive, and if the damage hydrocarbons are doing to our economy were taken into account, they’d be the only game in town. [but in capitalism as it exists now in most of the world, the only thing sacred, or of value, are short term gain/profits; human life and environmental health must fit within that bracket, eds..].
 
One of the many indexes of the failure of American democracy is that our candidates can’t even publicly say the name of our worst nemesis.

© 2012 Juan Cole

Juan Cole teaches Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan. His latest book, Engaging the Muslim World, is just out in a revised paperback edition from Palgrave Macmillan. He is also the author of Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). He has appeared widely on television, radio and on op-ed pages as a commentator on Middle East affairs, and has a regular column at Salon.com. He has written, edited, or translated 14 books and has authored 60 journal articles. His weblog on the contemporary Middle East is Informed Comment.

ELECTORAL THOUGHTS [and] HELPING HANDS

Now that the fall 2012 national elections are just about upon us, we thought we'd share a little with you the APR's view on the current line-up, as there are some interesting potential developments. Firstly, we've never taken much stock in the US presidential races, as being capable of producing rapid, substantial systemic change. As the old saying goes, "if voting was so effective, it would be illegal". The US duopoly of the Republicans/Democrats continues to argue about issues that are really distractions to the masses, while ignoring the most pressing concerns, global warming, resource depletion/environmental collapse, increasing inequality (nationally and globally), and built-in economic instability (for all but the most wealthy). Because they are funded by the most powerful trans-national corporate comglomerates in the fossil fuel, financial, pharmaceutical, and weapons industries.

 

And all the major improvements in US society over the past 150 years, labour rights, women's and non-white people's civil rights, environmental protection, etc.., have only occurred after and because of sustained mass movements engaging in direct action, protests, boycotts, strikes, etc.. Which eventually forced politicians at all levels to at least begin paying attention, and make at least token, or incremental changes in policy.

All that said though, we still feel it is important to vote, as much to send a message, as anything else. We've long been Green-oriented here at the APR, feeling that the Green parties throughout the World offer us the most logical and workable ways to bring about positive changes in our political and economic systems.

 

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/10/22/enough-of-this-obamination/

The above article offers a quick summation of why we don't look to the Democratic Party, at least on a national level, for any hope in addressing the major problems this country and the World are facing.

 

And the current duopoly knows that they can't compete with truth-telling members from other political parties, who are increasingly being shut out from the US political system, as this article attests:

http://truth-out.org/news/item/12168-green-party-ticket-arrested-at-presidential-debate

Green Party Ticket Arrested at Presidential Debate

Wednesday, 17 October 2012 13:11 By Allison Kilkenny, The Nation |

Jill Stein, the presumed Green Party presidential candidate, during an interview in her car in Roxbury, Mass., July 5, 2012. (Photo: Charlie Mahoney / The New York Times) In addition to being entirely shut out of this year's presidential debates, Green Party Presidential Candidate Jill Stein and her running mate, Cheri Honkala, were arrested for "blocking traffic" as they attempted to enter the debate at Hofstra University. The women were detained despite the fact that, in the video of the arrests, the police are much more of an impediment on traffic than the two candidates.

Stein and Honkala have been shut out, despite the fact that the Green Party ticket will be on an estimated 85 percent of ballots this election. The Commission on Presidential Debates stipulates that a candidate must garner at least 15 percent in national polls in order to participate, but national television exposure is a key factor in generating that kind of broad support. Hence, shutting out third party candidates creates a cyclical suppression in which candidates can't reach the 15 percent mark precisely because they are denied access to a large audience.

Additionally, there are all kinds of hurdles placed in third party candidate's paths as they attempt to collect signatures and support. Ralph Nader was famously kicked off the Oregon ballot in 2004 by the state Supreme Court for "fraud" and "circulator irregularities," despite the fact that Nader submitted far more county-verified voter signatures than the 15,306 needed on sheets in full compliance will all statues and all written rules. And that's only one example of numerous cases of third party suppression.

Shutting out third party candidates from debates obviously inflicts damage on the democratic process, but it also waters down the debate. Stein would have been a valuable asset to the dialogue, particularly when 20-year-old Jeremy Epstein posed a question about the bleak future for soon-to-be-graduates.

Here is Stein talking to Forbes' Peter J. Reilly about her fears for a generation that is being crushed by overwhelming student debt, and how she would prefer we bail out students rather than banks.

Stein would have been the only candidate to propose holding the banks accountable for the systemic fraud that led to the 2008 subprime disaster. President Obama and Governor Romney, having embraced the "look forward, not backward" mantra, refer only to the "tough economic times" in passing, as though it was some terrible bygone era that will never be repeated. In reality, a disastrous bubble burst will definitely happen again without oversight, regulation, and prosecutions of guilty Wall Street firms, and Stein is the only somewhat prominent candidate proposing that.

Stein would have also been the only candidate to propose significantly scaling back on military and security spending, and drone strikes, which have made us less safe, according to the candidate.

Then there would have been the added perk of having a conversation about the environment involving a candidate who utters the phrase "climate change."
As for the dreaded "spoiler," accusation, Honkala says, "You can't really spoil something that's already rotten."

The folks that I've been traveling around with and talking to for 25 years are crying because they're visiting their loved ones in prison, are crying because they are losing their loved ones because they don't have health care.

Honkala would have been the only candidate to talk at length about poverty and poor people. While Obama, Romney, and the vice-presidential candidates debated about the status of the "middle class"—a vague term that has come to mean everyone who is not poor or our one percent overlords—and President Obama gave a lightning-quick shout-out to the poor, who he referred to as, "folks who are striving to get into the middle class," Honkala co-founded the Kensington Welfare Rights Union and the Poor People's Economic Human Rights Campaign, and is a passionate advocate for families struggling to get by on a few hundred dollars a month.

"Those are people we need to start caring about and doing something about and not just putting out this rhetoric, like (Vice President Joe) Biden was yesterday, saying, 'We've got to begin caring about Main Street, not just Wall Street,'" she said.
 

This story originally appeared in The Nation.
Copyright © 2012 The Nation – distributed by Agence Global.

 

So get out there and vote with your conscience, we certainly will be! There are also some exciting ballot propositions on hand in many different states this year.

 

One of the most significant is Proposition 37, on the California state ballot.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/19

 

This would mandate that food be labeled if it contains genetically modified ingredients, as it is required in most of the European countries. The amount of corporate money fighting this is incredible, because if it passes, many other states will likely follow suit. Some of the same people involved with the tobacco companies' spreading of lies and obfuscation about smoking's harmfulness are now involved in the corporate fight against Prop. 37., and are using the same dirty tricks.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/23-9

We greatly hope the people of California pass Proposition 37, don't you want to know what is in your food, and if it is safe or not? 

 

In addition, several states have propositions to either decriminalise, or even legalise Marijuana, with one state proposition, Colorado's, actually proposing to have the state become involved in it's sale and distribution, to gain needed revenue. We fully support and hope these pass as well, as they will help bring to a much needed end the malignant US "War" on drugs, which over the course of it's 40+ year run, has been really a war on the poor and people of colour. Responsible for the fact that the US now has the greatest actual number of prisoners of any country on Earth (3+ million), as well as the greatest percentage of it's populace locked up.

http://www.alternet.org/11-enemies-marijuana-legalization?paging=off

 

We will be sure to offer our commentary and provide you with any significant results, after tallies from the interesting 2012 fall elections occur.

 

                                                 HELPING HANDS

 

Your lead editor here at the APR has had some accidents and injuries over the course of my few decades of active engagement with our physical environment, in the avid pursuit of my interests in long-distance hiking, running, skiing, and wilderness travel.

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/05/kesugi-ridge-experience.html

 

Which beside physically sustaining and renewing me, spending time in these pursuits in wilderness and less-developed areas, provides us all here at the APR with necessary spiritual sustenance and renewal.

Unfortunately this week, during one of the APR's routine daily running outings on the edge of our neighbourhood, here at the Chugach Front, I sustained one of my worst-ever injuries, which will keep me bound to the CFRC for a few months, until complete recuperation is gained.

 

The story is as follows. As soon as we left the street in our neighborhood, and entered onto the trails, around 1030 in the morning, we noticed a man working on a downed section of a backyard fence. He waved us down, and said a grizzly bear had knocked it over a few hours before, and had been rooting through his yard, looking for food. Our cold wet summer, followed by the September windstorms ruined much of our various wild berry crops, which is probably why the bear in question felt the need to pursue other food sources, before holing up for the winter.

 

Realistically, this should have made us turn back on the spot. But, we kept going, albeit rather nervously on my part. About fifteen minutes later, as we were on a power-line trail, about a half km in the woods from the houses,  I heard a rustling noise behind me. My assistant editor Mattie, and research assistant Kluane were both slightly ahead of me. Turning around, yet still running, my left leg jammed into a hole or rut (which I couldn't see, facing the other way), while my upper body kept moving at about a 7:30 pace. My left leg snapped, just below the tibial plateau below the knee, the pain was incredible, and the sound was gruesome. Whatever it was that had been behind us (which I never did see) was probably scared off by this! I dropped immediately to the ground, knowing I had a very serious injury out in the cold (it was -10C or about 14F), away from any assistance. After rolling around for about five minutes, I was able to slowly get to my feet, but immediately knew the left leg was useless. I was already quite scared, knowing we were over 1/2 km from the houses, with no one in sight.

 

Fortunately Mattie and Kluane both stayed with me while I stumbled and crawled the distance toward the houses, yelling for help all the while. It took us about 15 min. before we saw an older couple through the trees, walking their dog. I yelled as loud as I could, and they came over, and immediately rendered assistance. They both grabbed ahold of me and helped me stumble to the main trail, right next to the houses. Then Jim, the husband, ran for his car, which he was able to manoeuver onto the trail, and loaded us all into it. He then delivered us all back to the Chugach Front Research Centre, and even stayed until the paramedics came, after I had called 911 (I was in no shape to drive myself to the hospital). Without this wonderful couple's assistance, it would have taken me much longer to get help, and possibly would have aggravated my already serious leg injury.

 

During the ambulance ride to the Alaska Regional Hospital emergency room, my blood pressure was spiking at 150/90, due to the intense pain and stress I was under. It usually is around 110/68 or so. I was taken right into the e.r. and received immediate attention, first in the form of a strong pain pill (which greatly helped in about 5 min.), then a detailed examination. X rays and a CT scan were taken, and it was thought I had a fractured patella and tibia initially. A consultation with an orthopedist was scheduled for the following day. This is what my left leg looked like just after I had arrived at the e.r., note how much swelling is present, in comparison to the right leg.

One thing I thought interesting was that the e.r. physician never gave me a real prognosis of the injury, he just said the orthopedist would. But after he departed, the attending R.N. there, a friendly athletic-looking younger man in his early 30s, told me it was very serious, and that I would need an operation. I think he knew we were kindred spirits in the athletic sense, and decided I should know the situation right away.

 

Arriving back to the CFRC around 1530 (after leaving for our ill-fated run at 1030), there then followed a horribly painful night, even with pain medication and a leg brace, any little movement of my left leg was excruciating. I did not get much sleep.

 

The next day I met with the orthopedic surgeon, and he showed me the x-rays and CT scan images. The patella was actually not broken, but there was a 9 cm long diagonal fracture of the upper tibia, where it connects to the knee joint, about 5 mm wide. The surgeon said I would need a plate and some screws put in to mend the tibia, and a clean up of some small fragments. The operation was scheduled for the next day, at 0730. After another sleepless, painful night, I couldn't get in to the scheduled surgery fast enough, which was at Anchorage's other big hospital, Providence. After our pre-op procedures, a "femoral block" was established for my leg, an intra-venous introduction of strong anesthesia which numbed it. My first real relief since the accident! Then the surgeon and anaesthetist explained their procedures, a plunger was pushed, and down I went.

 

Waking up what seemed like an instant later (but was three hours), I had my leg brace on, and a thick set of bandages around the knee, and was not in any real pain! After slowly coming to, drinking some water and resting, to make sure I had no post-operative nausea, I was able to eat a sandwich by early afternoon, then return to the CFRC by early evening.

Here are two views of the hardware that was installed to knit the tibia back together.

 

Now it needs mentioning that I do have real health insurance, through my regular employer, and that accidents are covered, in theory, close to 100%. We know that the total sum for all the care I received (which was excellent, and for which we are greatly satisfied and appreciative) will easily be at least 20,000 USD, perhaps more, maybe even 40,000. We'll let you know when we find out. I would still be in excruciating pain had I not had the health insurance, in all likelihood I would have refused an operation, knowing how expensive it would have been, and that I would be unable to pay for it. Think about how many millions of people in the US have to make decisions like this every year, and suffer needlessly, because we are the ONLY industrialised nation without universal health care coverage. 

 

I am now slowly healing, still in some pain, but relieved in knowing that in a few months I'll be able to be back out in our wilderness settings with the rest of the APR staff, doing all the things we enjoy. And wishing that everyone in our country had the good fortune I have had, to have recourse to excellent medical care, and hope for real recovery to a serious injury or health situation.  This whole situation also reminds us here at the APR just how reliant we all are on the assistance and care of others in our daily lives, and re-affirms our faith in the essential well-meaning of people, when emergencies arise. We also look forward to seeing and thanking our kind and helping neighbours in a few months, when we are out on the trails again after my recovery. As well, if anyone wishes to take our assistant editor Mattie and research assistant Kluane for outings, please feel free. Until I stage a complete recovery, I will only be able to offer them short walks whilst I hobble about on crutches. Cheers.

90 YEARS BEHIND? [or] OUR ROCKY SPINE

We came across this interesting article the other day, and were very captivated by it.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/09/29

  

Author Mary Ellen Hannibal wrote a book, Spine of the Continent [which we have yet to obtain, but shall a.s.a.p., eds.], which the following review describes:

 

As climate change encroaches, animals and plants around the globe are having their habitats pulled out from under them. At the same time, human development has made islands out of even our largest nature reserves, stranding the biodiversity that lives within them. The Spine of the Continent introduces readers to the most ambitious conservation effort ever undertaken: to create linked protected areas extending from the Yukon to Mexico, the entire length of North America. This movement is the brainchild of Michael Soule, the founder of conservation biology and the peer of E.O. Wilson and Paul Ehrlich, who endorse his effort as necessary to saving nature on our continent. With blue-ribbon scientific foundations, the Spine is yet a grassroots, cooperative effort among conservation activists – NGOs large and small -- and regular citizens. The Spine of the Continent is not only about making physical connections so that nature will persist; it is about making connections between people and the land we call home. In this fascinating, exciting, and important book, Mary Ellen Hannibal travels the length of the Spine, sharing stories and anecdotes about the passionate, idiosyncratic people she meets along the way – and the critters they love.

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With that as a background, give this article a read, it's really fascinating, and frankly, it moved us greatly, as it illustrates so many principles we believe in, and try to live by, here in our little sub-Arctic corner of this vast North American continent. Nice also to see that it appeared in the New York Times, so that hopefully, millions of people read it.

 

Published on Saturday, September 29, 2012 by The New York Times

Why the Beaver Should Thank the Wolf

by Mary Ellen Hannibal

This month, a group of environmental nonprofits said they would challenge the federal government’s removal of Endangered Species Act protections for wolves in Wyoming. Since there are only about 328 wolves in a state with a historic blood thirst for the hides of these top predators, the nonprofits are probably right that lacking protection, Wyoming wolves are toast.(Image: Jungyeon Roh/NYT)

Many Americans, even as they view the extermination of a species as morally anathema, struggle to grasp the tangible effects of the loss of wolves. It turns out that, far from being freeloaders on the top of the food chain, wolves have a powerful effect on the well-being of the ecosystems around them — from the survival of trees and riverbank vegetation to, perhaps surprisingly, the health of the populations of their prey.
 

An example of this can be found in Wyoming’s Yellowstone National Park, where wolves were virtually wiped out in the 1920s and reintroduced in the ’90s. Since the wolves have come back, scientists have noted an unexpected improvement in many of the park’s degraded stream areas.
 

Stands of aspen and other native vegetation, once decimated by overgrazing, are now growing up along the banks. This may have something to do with changing fire patterns, but it is also probably because elk and other browsing animals behave differently when wolves are around. Instead of eating greenery down to the soil, they take a bite or two, look up to check for threats, and keep moving. The greenery can grow tall enough to reproduce.

 

[no, this is not a wolf chasing the majestic bull moose just 10 km walk from the CFRC here in the Chugach last month, it's our research assistant Kluane trying to herd him, but you get the idea.. :), eds.]

Beavers, despite being on the wolf’s menu, also benefit when their predators are around. The healthy vegetation encouraged by the presence of wolves provides food and shelter to beavers. Beavers in turn go on to create dams that help keep rivers clean and lessen the effects of drought. Beaver activity also spreads a welcome mat for thronging biodiversity. Bugs, amphibians, fish, birds and small mammals find the water around dams to be an ideal habitat.
 

So the beavers keep the rivers from drying up while, at the same time, healthy vegetation keeps the rivers from flooding, and all this biological interaction helps maintain rich soil that better sequesters carbon — that stuff we want to get out of the atmosphere and back into the ground. In other words, by helping to maintain a healthy ecosystem, wolves are connected to climate change: without them, these landscapes would be more vulnerable to the effects of those big weather events we will increasingly experience as the planet warms.
 

Scientists call this sequence of impacts down the food chain a “trophic cascade.” The wolf is connected to the elk is connected to the aspen is connected to the beaver. Keeping these connections going ensures healthy, functioning ecosystems, which in turn support human life.
 

Another example is the effect of sea otters on kelp, which provides food and shelter for a host of species. Like the aspen for the elk, kelp is a favorite food of sea urchins. By hunting sea urchins, otters protect the vitality of the kelp and actually boost overall biodiversity. Without them, the ecosystem tends to collapse; the coastal reefs become barren, and soon not much lives there.
 

Unfortunately, sea otters are in the cross hairs of a conflict equivalent to the “wolf wars.” Some communities in southeast Alaska want to allow the hunting of sea otters in order to decrease their numbers and protect fisheries. But the rationale that eliminating the predator increases the prey is shortsighted and ignores larger food-web dynamics. A degraded ecosystem will be far less productive over all.
 

Having fewer fish wouldn’t just hurt fishermen: it would also endanger the other end of the trophic scale — the phytoplankton that turn sunshine into plant material, and as every student of photosynthesis knows, create oxygen and sequester carbon. In lakes, predator fish keep the smaller fish from eating all the phytoplankton, thus sustaining the lake’s rate of carbon uptake.
 

Around the planet, large predators are becoming extinct at faster rates than other species. And losing top predators has an outsize effect on the rate of loss of many other species below them on the food chain as well as on the plant life that is so important to the balance of our ecosystems.
 

So what can be done? For one thing, we have begun to realize that parks like Yellowstone are not the most effective means of conservation. Putting a boundary around an expanse of wilderness is an intuitive idea not borne out by the science. Many top predators must travel enormous distances to find mates and keep populations from becoming inbred. No national park is big enough for wolves, for example. Instead, conservation must be done on a continental scale. We can still erect our human boundaries — around cities and towns, mines and oil fields — but in order to sustain a healthy ecosystem, we need to build in connections so that top predators can move from one wild place to another.
 

Many biologists have warned that we are approaching another mass extinction. The wolf is still endangered and should be protected in its own right. But we should also recognize that bringing all the planet’s threatened and endangered species back to healthy numbers — as well as mitigating the effects of climate change — means keeping top predators around.
 

© 2012 Mary Ellen Hannibal
 

Mary Ellen Hannibal is the author of The Spine of the Continent

 

It's nice to see what we have long known and understood, that all our species rely on each other to maintain the health of the ecosystems we are in, just by the way in which they live. And that the removal of one or more, has far-reaching and potentially very harmful effects.

 

Yet because of the European-based cultures that over-ran this continent's view that human beings (and specifically, white, male Christian human beings) must subjugate and control the natural world, as they are "superior" to it, as written in the Christian Bible, we are faced with the result. Species extinction, environmental destruction, and eventual collapse, unless new cultural views incorporating a more holistic view of humanity's place on the Earth are incorporated.

 

 

 

 

Having grown up in California, I always liked the state flag, with it's large grizzly bear prominently displayed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_California

 

Although the article about this flag, above, states that it was based on one developed during a brief revolt by "white" settlers in northern California, declaring independence from Mexico in 1846, shortly before the U.S.-driven war began against that country, it was formalised as a design much later. In 1911, and again, in 1953. And in fact, the very last wild grizzly bear in California was killed in 1936. So why is a grizzly bear, which no longer exists in the wild in California, still on their flag? And not something more iconic and representative of the man-made wealth and power of that state, such as the Golden Gate Bridge? We like to think it's because deep down, it's part of our instinctive drive to be in and a part of the natural world, notwithstanding any religious dogmas to the contrary.

 

My maternal grandmother was born in Oregon in 1910, and grew up in a logging camp in the northern coast range. She told me when I was much younger (she passed away in 1996), that when she was a child, say around 1920, that they still had grizzly bears and wolves there, in addition to all the other large animals still present, elk, deer, black bears, and mountain lions, for example. Whenever I am back in Oregon visiting, I love to think about how it would have been in those days, in the vast forests of huge old-growth douglas fir, western red-cedar, hemlocks, and other conifers, to know that their ecosystem was complete, and healthy.

That's why we live here in Alaska, because we love knowing that our ecosystems here are complete, and relatively healthy, in comparison to those in most of the rest of the U.S. And that we can have access to real wilderness in very short order, with all it's physical and spiritual benefits.

And that is also why we fervently hope that the idea of having linked protected areas extending along our continent's rocky spine from Alaska/Yukon, south to Mexico, can become a reality. Which we will do our best to support, and aid in efforts to establish, here at the Alaska Progressive Review.

After all, we love all our other neighbouring species, here at the Chugach Front, and hope that they will always be able to live and thrive with us, in our little corner of the continent, with it's amazing and still relatively unspoiled natural environment. May we always remain 90 years behind the rest of the U.S.!

Cheers.

WILLIWAW WOES





http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williwaw

 

According to the above Wikipedia link, the term Williwaw refers to katabatic winds (cold, heavy dense, arctic or antarctic air descending from continental higher-elevation sources) that blast into coastal areas, such as the Taku winds in Juneau. Most people that live in South-Central Alaska though understand the term Williwaw to describe the strong, often damaging and capricious winds we get here with the passage of low pressure/frontal systems, coming up from the south or southwest, from the Bering Sea or Gulf of Alaska. We have a Williwaw street, Williwaw Lakes in the Chugach State Park, just to the SE of the city, at 900 metres elevation, and a 1662 metre (5450') Williwaw peak, behind them.

 

An unusually strong, and unprecedented early event of this nature occurred earlier this week in the Anchorage "bowl", bringing winds across the majority of the city of 80-110 kph (50-65 mph), with gusts as high as 170-210 kph (100-131 mph, category 2-3 hurricane strength!) in certain favoured areas. Here at the Chugach Front Research Centre, we are estimating our peak gusts to be around 145 kph (90 mph), based upon the damage we observed to plants and trees around it, and the shaking of the entire building during the event. With thousands of downed trees across the "bowl" power was knocked out to more than half of the population, with a few unfortunate areas still without, as of this writing, five days later.

 

http://www.adn.com/2012/09/07/2615477/blackouts-remain-for-2700-customers.html

 

As this US National Weather Service graphic (from their NWS Alaska facebook site) shows, wind gusts as high as this, 131 mph (210 kph!) were observed. Since this local weather station is not an official NWS installed and maintained platform, it's accuracy is not entirely established, but it should be accurate to within +/- 10 mph (or 16 kph). Strong east through south winds in advance of low pressure/frontal systems are channeled by the Chugach Mountains, and in the right circumstances, flow down the mountainsides and accelerate. Giving much stronger winds in these favoured areas than what is observed across the middle and western portions of the city, e.g., where the Anchorage International Airport, and downtown, are located.

 

The surface map below from tuesday last, at 4 pm AKDT, shows the European (ECMWF) forecast model's initial analysis (what the model uses as the initial state of the atmosphere, which trillions of calculations then operate on, to provide forecast charts extending out 10 days) of  the surface low in the eastern Bering Sea at it's peak strength of near 970 mb. The yellow-green-blue colour contours are observed/forecast 850 mb (roughly 1500 metres/5000 ft) wind speeds in metres/second. Of note, is that the model is estimating that winds just to the east of Anchorage, over the Chugach mountains at this level are in excess of 40 m/s, or 143 kph (90 mph!). Why is that? Because this low was unusually strong, and surrounded by strong surface high pressure, leading to very strong pressure gradients.   

 

 

 

At 500 millibars, the low manifests as a deep 5250 metre centre, quite low for this time of year, which when combined with the fact that sea surface temperatures are at their summer seasonal peaks, allows for greater fueling of these systems winds and precipitation.

 

 

Right about this time, and about 5-6 hours before the strongest winds were occurring over the Anchorage bowl, this infrared satellite image shows the strong low just offshore of the southwest Alaska coast, with the occluded front about 150-200 km to our west. 

 

Following is the NWS Anchorage's "Area Forecast Discussion" written the afternoon of the strong wind event. These are a description of the basic weather pattern, problem(s) of the day, how the forecast models are handling it, and expected impacts. Prepared twice-daily in every US NWS office, by the lead forecaster on duty at the time, this one is exceptionally well-written, descriptive, and unfortunately accurate. Give it a read, it has some interesting details.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
115 PM AKDT TUE SEP 4 2012

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...A POWERFUL STORM IS MAKING ITS WAY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST OBSERVATION FROM SAINT GEORGE ISLAND SHOWS
A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 972 MB...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE
NEARBY LOW IS LIKELY AROUND 970 MB. STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ARE
IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FOR WIND SPEEDS AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE ALASKA REGION. THIS IS INDICATIVE OF HOW UNUSUAL IT IS TO
HAVE SUCH A STRONG STORM THIS EARLY IN THE SEASON. THE SIZE OF
THE STORM IS ALSO VERY LARGE...WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AT
LEAST 500 MILES IN ANY DIRECTION FROM THE LOW CENTER. IN ADDITION
TO WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS THIS STORM IS ALSO PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN
ALONG THE FRONTAL SYSTEM...WHICH IS MOVING ONSHORE OF SOUTHWEST
ALASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH. THE
LATEST MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WHICH MEANS THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE A LITTLE
SLOWER.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THIS STORM. THE HIGHEST IMPACTS FROM WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND ANCHORAGE AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING THROUGHOUT
THE ANCHORAGE AREA. HOWEVER...EXPECT WINDS IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
TO COME DOWN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF AND THE NORTH-SOUTH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES DOWN COOK INLET...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WINDS CURRENTLY
BENDING INTO ANCHORAGE TO INSTEAD REMAIN OUT IN THE INLET. WINDS
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TRAPPING OF MOUNTAIN WAVES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL BRING SOME STRONGER WINDS DOWN THE HILLSIDE AND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST ANCHORAGE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL MOVE BACK IN TO ALL OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AS WE APPROACH MIDNIGHT AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...WITH LEAVES ON THE TREES AND FAIRLY SATURATED SOILS THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF FALLING TREES IN THESE HIGH WINDS.

WINDS ELSEWHERE WILL BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED IN A MORE TYPICAL
WIND EVENT. HOWEVER...WINDS IN THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW WARNING THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND THE
FRONT IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN QUITE
TIGHT AND SUPPORT STRONG SUB-WARNING LEVEL WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AS WAS THE CASE WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION
YESTERDAY...THERE WILL BE STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW
CENTER. THE MAX RISE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WITH WEAKER RISES OVER THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL. THESE PRESSURE
RISES WILL CAUSE WINDSPEEDS TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN LIGHTER QPF
AMOUNTS ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS IN UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL SEE ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF TWO INCHES
OR MORE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AREAS. THE FRONTAL RAIN BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH OVER
ABOUT A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION. THIS HELPS LIMIT
THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. RIVERS AND STREAMS IN THE SEWARD AREA WERE
RUNNING HIGH AFTER YESTERDAY'S STORM AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT BATCH OF HEAVY
RAIN MOVES THROUGH. 

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING
TRENDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
WILL DROP OUT OF THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC AND RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE GULF
OF ALASKA BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND WIND
WON'T BE A MAJOR FACTOR...BUT PERIODS OF RAIN AND COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH WEAK TO
MODERATE STORMS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THESE STORMS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN
ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MEANS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND OF ALASKA MAY SEE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 [Anchorage, eds..] 125.
MARINE...STORM WARNING...120.
         GALE WARNING...125 128 129 130 132 138 140 141 150 155
                        160 165 170 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB SEP 12

Note the "standardised anomalies" referred to in the opening paragraph of the discussion. These are just a quantitative method of assessing the likelihood of occurrence (or rarity thereof) of whatever field is being described. In this case, SA's of 4-6 for the 850 mb wind field with this low, have a one percent or less likelihood of occurring in any given year, based upon the 60 year period of record that the NWS has for weather data.

The area that the Chugach Front Research Centre is located, sometimes called the "Chugach foothills subdivision(s)", has a notorious history/reputation for receiving stronger/more damaging winds from these type of lows than other lower and flat areas of Anchorage to the west. On the above 3-D representation of the eastern Anchorage area and Chugach front, this area is located just to the west of the "HORAGE" labeling, where the eastern-most large road, Tudor/Muldoon, curves from it's east-west orientation and becomes north-south. This small about 5 sq km area often can receive winds nearly as strong as those observed at the higher elevations on the Chugach front hillsides.

 

Why is that? Inspection of the map above, shows a 15 km long relatively straight canyon along the North Fork of Campbell Creek, labeled "Campbell Cr Canyon", that is aligned in a se-nw direction. Strong winds from the 900-850 mb levels (1000-1500 metre or 3300-5000 ft) are funneled through this long, narrow, straight canyon, and blast out onto the adjacent flat areas.

Here is the view of the canyon from directly behind the Chugach Front Research Centre.

Here is the lower reach of this North Fork Campbell Creek canyon, from our 3-day trip a few years ago, which we undertook entirely on foot from the CFRC.

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2010/08/going-neutral.html

 

This is looking in up-canyon toward the southeast, at an elevation of only around 700 metres (2300 ft.), but even at this low elevation, it is treeless. As often during the summer, cold winds funnel through here when lows are present in the Gulf of Alaska.

Further up-canyon, at about the 900 metre level (2950 ft), beautiful clear 4 km Long Lake fills the bulk of it. The source of the fresh waters of our much-loved North Fork of Campbell Creek. On this day, when a very weak low was in the Gulf, and light winds were observed in Anchorage, here in the canyon, winds were 60-90 kph (36-55 mph).

The headwalls of this beautiful 15 km long canyon are formed by the 1400-1662 metre peaks of this portion of the Chugach mountains, at the foot of which are more beautiful snowmelt-derived clear alpine lakes. Strong winds then descend this mountain headwall, then are funneled and accelerated down the canyon, roaring out onto the adjacent part of the Anchorage bowl, when the weather pattern permits.

What does that translate into, in terms of actual weather conditions, in these adjacent areas near the mouth of this canyon? This picture, above, is from the CFRC at about 1100 pm AKDT last tue., about an hour before the strongest winds were occurring. At this time, gusts of 90-110 kph (55-65 mph) were bending the birch trees behind our compound. The howling of the winds was also punctuated by the flashing of powerlines arcing and transformers exploding, like giant flashbulbs, or lightning strikes, all over the area. Which was quite terrifying, and we made sure to stay inside, away from the hazards of blowing/falling tree limbs/trees. This was even before stronger gusts made the entire building shake, which caused our assistant editor Mattie and research assistant Kluane to become quite nervous. Our power had gone out earlier, around 1045 pm AKDT. We tried sleeping by midnight that night, with limited success.

What greeted us the next morning were some of these same trees downed, and our raspberries shredded into ragged stalks. We also lost one of our young apple trees. But we were fortunate, as many people had downed trees in their yards and blocking their streets, also causing damage to fences, homes and cars.

We were left dazed and tired the next day after this event, and very uneasy, about the potential for stronger and more frequent occurrences of similar events.

By now, you are probably aware that the Arctic sea ice extent, volume, and thickness, have reached a new record low in the past few weeks, in the 30+ year period of satellite-derived measurement, with still at least another week or so left, in the melting season. The animation below shows the declining volume in stark detail, as of the end of August.

http://tamino.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/piomas.gif

Below, is a very good description of what happened this year with the Arctic sea ice, and what it means, by Dr. Jeff Masters, who is a well-respected researcher in the Atmospheric Sciences field.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2222

Half of the polar ice cap is missing: Arctic sea ice hits a new record low

 

Posted by: JeffMasters, 8:53 PM GMT on September 06, 2012

Extraordinary melting of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has shattered the all-time low sea ice extent record set in September 2007, and sea ice continues to decline far below what has ever been observed. The new sea ice record was set on August 26, a full three weeks before the usual end of the melting season, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. Every major scientific institution that tracks Arctic sea ice agrees that new records for low ice area, extent, and volume have been set. These organizations include the University of Washington Polar Science Center (a new record for low ice volume), the Nansen Environmental & Remote Sensing Center in Norway, and the University of Illinois Cryosphere Today. A comprehensive collection of sea ice graphs shows the full story. Satellite records of sea ice extent date back to 1979, though a 2011 study by Kinnard et al. shows that the Arctic hasn't seen a melt like this for at least 1,450 years (see a more detailed article on this over at skepticalscience.com.) The latest September 5, 2012 extent of 3.5 million square kilometers is approximately a 50% reduction in the area of Arctic covered by sea ice, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. The ice continues to melt, and has not reached the low for this year yet.

Figure 1. A sunny, slushy day at the North Pole on September 1, 2012. Webcam image courtesy of the North Pole Environmental Observatory.

Figure 2. Sea ice extent on September 5, 2012, showed that half of the polar ice cap was missing, compared to the average from 1979 - 2000. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Why the Arctic sea ice is importantArctic sea ice is an important component of the global climate system. The polar ice caps help to regulate global temperature by reflecting sunlight back into space. White snow and ice at the poles reflects sunlight, but dark ocean absorbs it. Replacing bright sea ice with dark ocean is a recipe for more and faster global warming. The Autumn air temperature over the Arctic has increased by 4 - 6°F in the past decade, and we could already be seeing the impacts of this warming in the mid-latitudes, by an increase in extreme weather events. Another non-trivial impact of the absence of sea ice is increased melting in Greenland. We already saw an unprecedented melting event in Greenland this year, and as warming continues, the likelihood of these events increase.

Figure 3. August set a new record for lowest Arctic sea ice extent. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center.


Figure 4. Arctic sea ice death spiral as plotted by Jim Pettit using data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Huge storm pummels Alaska
A massive low pressure system with a central pressure of 970 mb swept through Alaska on Tuesday, generating hurricane-force wind gusts near Anchorage, Alaska that knocked out power to 55,000 homes. Mighty Alaskan storms like this are common in winter, but rare in summer and early fall. The National Weather Service in Anchorage said in their Wednesday forecast discussion that the forecast wind speeds from this storm were incredibly strong for this time of year--four to six standard anomalies above normal. A four-standard anomaly event occurs once every 43 years, and a five-standard anomaly event is a 1-in-4800 year event. However, a meteorologist I heard from who lives in the Anchorage area characterized the wind damage that actually occurred as a 1-in-10 year event. A few maximum wind gusts recorded on Tuesday during the storm: [unfortunately, power outages and/or sensor damage occurred before the strongest winds occurred, eds..]
McHugh Creek (Turnagain Arm)... ... ..88 mph
Paradise Valley (Potter Marsh)... ... 75 mph
Upper Hillside (1400 ft)... ... ... ... 70 mph
Anchorage port... ... ... ... ... ... ... .63 mph

The storm has weakened to a central pressure of 988 mb today, and is located just north of Alaska. The storm is predicted to bring strong winds of 25 - 35 mph and large waves to the edge of the record-thin and record-small Arctic ice cap, and may add to the unprecedented decline in Arctic sea ice being observed this summer.

Figure 5. An unusually strong storm formed off the coast of Alaska on August 5 and tracked into the center of the Arctic Ocean, where it slowly dissipated over the next several days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Aqua satellite captured this natural-color mosaic image on Aug. 6, 2012. The center of the storm at that date was located in the middle of the Arctic Ocean. Image credit: NASA.

Arctic storms may be increasing due to climate change
This week's Alaskan storm is the second unusually strong low pressure system to affect the Arctic in the past month. On August 4 - 8, a mighty storm with a central pressure of 963 mb raged through the Arctic, bringing strong winds that helped scatter and break up Arctic sea ice. According to a detailed post at NASA Earth Observatory, that storm was in the top 3 percent for strongest storms ever recorded north of 70 degrees latitude. A study of long-term Arctic cyclone trends authored by a team led by John Walsh and Xiangdong Zhang of the University of Alaska Fairbanks found that number and intensity of Arctic cyclones has increased during the second half of the twentieth century, particularly during the summer. Dr. Zhang explained that climate change has caused sea ice to retreat markedly in recent decades and has also warmed Arctic Ocean temperatures. Such changes may be providing more energy and moisture to support cyclone development and persistence. The strong storms of this week and a month ago would have had far less impact on the ice just a decade ago, when the sea ice was much thicker and more extensive.

A sea ice decline double-whammy
The monster Arctic storms like we've seen this year have sped up the rate of sea ice loss, but increased water temperatures and air temperatures due to human-caused global warming are the dominant reasons for the record melting of the Arctic sea ice. A July 2012 study by Day et al. found that the most influential of the possible natural influences on sea ice loss was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO has two phases, negative (cold) and positive (warm), which impact Arctic sea ice. The negative phase tends to create sea surface temperatures in the far north Atlantic that are colder than average. In this study, the AMO only accounted for 5% - 31% of the observed September sea ice decline since 1979. The scientists concluded that given the lack of evidence that natural forces were controlling sea ice fluctuations, the majority of sea ice decline we've seen during the 1953 - 2010 period was due to human causes.

Joe Romm has a more in-depth look at the new Arctic sea ice record and what it means for the future over at climateprogess.org.  [well worth taking a look at, very informative, eds..]Angela Fritz and Jeff Masters

With the continued decline in, and imminent demise of summer sea ice coverage in the Arctic (likely by 2016-2018), we have reached a "tipping point", where positive feedbacks are now and will continue to amplify the warming we are already receiving from our increased levels of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion.

 

Thus, we at the APR fully expect now that greater losses of ice from the Greenland ice sheet will lead to significant coastal flooding/inundation world-wide within 10-20 years. As well as stronger and increased drought episodes (leading to greater wildfire acreages-another positive feedback, and greater instability in global food supplies) across continental land-masses in both hemispheres (North America, Eurasia, and Australia especially), stronger and more frequent heavy precipitation/flooding events, and stronger low pressure/frontal systems across the higher latitudes north and south. This is the reality we have now, and it's only going to get worse. Remember, we are nearing 395 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere, and will reach close to 550 ppm by 2050, under current energy use/type trends. That means for us here at the CFRC, and in the Anchorage Bowl, stronger, and more frequent storms similar to that which occurred earlier this week. As well as greater instability and chaos in general in our climate, e.g., greater swings in winter conditions, freeze-thaw events, freezing rain, heavy snows and rains, more adverse aviation weather (turbulence/icing/wind shear) etc...

 

What will it mean for you, where you live? Feel free to inquire of us here at the Alaska Progressive Review, we have some knowledge and expertise to provide you with an informed assessment. Cheers.