METRIC MANIFESTO! [and] MT. PRINDLE - el otro mundo?

Back when I was in Miss Mannarino's sixth grade class at Whittier Elementary in San Diego in 1975-76, we studied the metric system. Change was coming, the U.S. was going metric by 1980! So we were told. The following year in seventh grade, through all of junior and senior high, and college thereafter, nothing more was mentioned about this. What happened? Take a look at this world map. What is it showing? Those countries in red, including the U.S., are the only ones not officially requiring the use of the metric system in all aspects of living, transportation, weights/measures, weather forecasts, etc...

http://lamar.colostate.edu/~hillger/laws/usmb.html The preceding link gives the history of the aborted U.S. drive to go metric. The Reagan administration cancelled the funding for the U.S. Metric Board in 1982, citing budgetary reasons. So ended the U.S. drive toward metrication. What was the real reason? American exceptionalism, complaints from industry (especially auto-makers)? Probably a mix of both. And in spite of the findings and recommendations of the U.S. Metric Board, which were:

Findings
The present policy of maintaining a dual system of measures for trade and commerce is confusing to all segments of American society.

Voluntary metric conversion by industry occurs primarily in response to marketplace demands and usually on a company-by-company basis.

The costs of metric conversion have not been excessive.

Large segments of industry have metric capability.

Past perceptions of the difficulty of metric conversion have no basis.

There are no substantial legal barriers to metric conversion requiring Federal preemptive action.

There are no substantial technical problems with metric conversion.

Consumers accept conversion according to their own interests.

Recommendations
The Metric Conversion Act of 1975 should continue to be administered.

National policy on metric conversion should be reassessed.

Research should be conducted on economic sectors where metric capability may be critical.

The Federal Interagency Committee on Metric Policy and the National Council on State Metrication should be continued.

The functions outlined in the Board's Private Sector Planning Guidelines should be continued.

Government public awareness, consumer and education programs should be continued selectively.

The States should consider enacting uniform metric conversion legislation.

As we proudly and often state, all of the A.P.R. staff are "One-Worlders" (my favorite epithet hurled at me by a conservative person once!). That is, we view ourselves as part of the human race, who just happen to live in a certain country. And that if humanity is to survive as a race with some form of technological culture, all countries and groups must trust each other and work together to solve the looming and inter-related threats of global warming/environmental collapse and overpopulation/resource depletion. Which means working toward some form of effective World Government. As you often see in science fiction, stories/novels, and movies/television shows. I don't know about you, but I think it's inspiring to see a vision of the future like the Star Trek shows, where 300-500 years from now, humanity has evolved to the point where there is effective World Government, and the related pestilences of poverty and war have been eliminated.

M.K. Ghandi famously stated, "You must be the change you wish to see". Since we here at A.P.R. wish to see an end to the curse of American Exceptionalism, and for this country to join the global community as a force for positive change in tackling the serious threats facing us all, we offer the following METRIC MANIFESTO:

We pledge ourselves to only use the metric system henceforth in all our daily activities, writings, and relations with others. And to educate others as to why we are doing this. Of course, there are some instances where this is not possible (in your lead author's other job, for example), but every effort will be made to go metric, and hence, through this small step, become more of a global citizen.

There are signs of gradual change, as this highway sign on I-15 in the Mojave Desert shows, yet the speed limit sign is still in MPH. Let's make the transition complete, and become more a part of the global community!

MT. PRINDLE - el Otro Mundo?

El Otro Mundo (spanish for "the other world") is my favorite way of referencing the place we all go every night in our dreams and when we finally let go our physical bodies in this life.

Looking out our windows of the Chena Ridge Research Station, you can see peak fall colour is upon us. This also means that within a few weeks it will be much colder, the ground will be frozen, and the first snowflakes flying. And, moderate conditions for a short pack trip won't last much longer. This past weekend the A.P.R. staff decided a short getaway was needed, and we decided to visit Mt. Prindle, which is listed as a 30 kilometre round trip hike to the top of it's 1612 metre summit. It is about 120 km east of Fairbanks, off the Steese Highway. A guidebook showed pictures of interesting rock formations (tors - granitic outcroppings) there and that it is not a very heavily visited place, because of two stream crossings on the first part of the trail. Perfect!
We headed out last saturday afternoon and reached the trailhead at 4pm. Sure enough, not 20 metres from the parking spot, we had to cross Nome Creek, which was too deep and wide to hop across on rocks, so we just plunged through in our regular hiking boots and socks. Another smaller stream then had to be crossed another 100 metres or so up similarly. We did this because I knew this would be a swampy tundra hike, full of tussocks and underwater sections of trail. And since we were just going to hike 10 km this day and set up camp, no biggie. I brought extra socks for the next day, and my 7mm scuba dive neoprene booties to wear in camp for comfort/dry feet.

It didn't take long to realize, there really aren't many people coming in here. Because berries like this wouldn't be seen on all sides of the trail otherwise. We had to stop and gorge a few times.

The trail the first several kilometres gradually ascends up the Nome Creek drainage above treeline, and did have many swampy sections, so my feet were constantly wet and muddy.

About 9 km and two hours up, we decided to stop and set up camp just below a bowl where the valley comes to an end. A nice stream close by would give me access for cooking and drinking water and for Mattie and Homer's needs. A few weeks ago I visited our local outdoor store, Beaver Sports, and checked out the clearance area. I saw a small one-person "Big-Agnes" Seedhouse SL-1 tent for sale for 100.00, normally 250.00. I snapped it up. This was my first opportunity to use it. It only weighs .9 kg (not much more than my bivvy sack!) and takes up a third the packed space of my larger tents. Here you can see it without the fly. During high summer, when bugs are in full swing, if not expecting rain, this will make a great bug escape zone.

With the fly on, it gives full protection from the elements. It is big enough for me and all my gear, or two people could squeeze in in a pinch, leaving their packs outside. Not bad for 100.00! It sure pays to check out that clearance rack!

Looking up the valley from our camp-site that evening in the gentle fall sun, I could make out the route we'd take tomorrow to get up Prindle. Up the slope of the tallest hill in the center, then following the ridge to the right east, and then north.

After a chilly, rainy, windy night, we awoke to grey skies, sprinkles, and a stiff 30-45 kph northeast wind. I knew it would be much worse as we ascended, but them's the breaks. We waited until 1030 though, for it to warm up a little, and see if it would stop sprinkling or improve. It didn't so we set out.

After ascending the flank of the first hill and ridge-line, a few kilometres brought us to the first of the significant "tors", ones I called "the bookends". All very old, weathered granite, millenia of arctic extreme weather has been working on these. These were probably about 200-300 metres above camp, which itself was probably around 1000 m elevation (tree line here is only around 900 m).

Homer was very happy to be here, many times he had to roll around on the ground, whine, and growl to register his approval. With his strking blue eyes, wolfy body and face, he can come off as rather imposing. But he is as kind and and gentle a canine as I've ever been fortunate enough to associate with. Mattie sure loves him too.

Getting up the first slope, there was no real trail, but by the time I got to the "bookends" one re-appeared. Looking up the trail, just past this, is when I first realized, what a strange place this is. In the far distance, the 1612 metre summit of Prindle looms. The "trail" (such as it is) weaves through the tors, up that dark ridge past them, down this to another, up and over that, then to the top of Prindle. By the time we got this high, the winds were easily double what they were in camp, still sprinkling, and it was about 6-8C (42-46F), we estimated. More importantly, the lichens on the many rock fields we had to go through were quite slippery, which was potentially dangerous, in the wind, and we had to pay attention to every step.

Mattie switched to mountain-goat mode early on, once we hit the rocks.

She loves being in high places, and climbing around, just as much as she loves being in the water.

Weaving through these bizaare-looking rocks, I felt as though I was in "el Otro Mundo". They looked like a cross between Stonehenge, and the huge statues on Easter Island, at times. I think the flat grey lighting, and strong cold wind just accentuated the effect. The main area of these tors is about a kilometre long, and we took our time going through, they were so interesting. They are reknowned for rock-climbing, and I can definitely see the draw there, and will put that on the list for next year.

My favorite of the tors was the last large one before ascending the dark ridge heading toward the Prindle summit. This is the one that I think really looks like an Easter Island statue.

This is looking back, south, down the line of the tors. Such a strange place...

We were definitely put into a spiritual, almost trance-like state being here. I am a strong believer that certain areas exert different influences/energies upon us. Many hot springs have healing energy, for example. This area, to me, exemplifies a "power-center", where it would be beneficial to conduct nature-based rituals and ceremonies, as they would be very powerful. Since I am scotch/irish and swiss/german, I identify strongly with the pre-Christian, nature-based Celtic beliefs. Which I believe are healthier, and more affirming than Christianity, as every part of the Earth, person, plant, and animal, are seen as sacred, and part of the larger whole.

After our spiritual experience weaving through the tors, we ascended the next ridge. The rocks were very slippery, and I could see I would have another hour of that in the strong wind, to ascend Prindle. I decided to save it for another time. I'm running a longer, 50 km equinox marathon next weekend, and didn't want to jeopardise that with a slip. Not to mention, having to get back down, and out 15 km back to the car. It went pretty quickly descending back to camp, packing up, and then heading back to the car. We were there at 430 pm. A perfect quick two-day getaway.

I decided there should be a Summer Solstice ceremony/celebration here next June. Anyone with me? Cheers.

MUST PADDLE LIST - Tangle Lakes/Delta River

Interior Alaska abounds with almost unlimited opportunities for wilderness outings on our lakes and rivers. On everyone's Must Paddle list who lives here, because it's so accessible, yet still beautiful and wild (at least after the first few miles), is the Tangle Lakes/Delta River trip. 48 kilometres on lakes and a river through the heart of the Alaska Range.

Erik and his two younger kids, Shane, 12, and Megan, 10, and the whole A.P.R. staff decided to give this a try last Labour Day weekend. Erik and the kids, along with Mattie and Homer, would be in a canoe, while

your lead editor would follow in his Alpacka pack raft.

Erik likes to drive his trusty old 1984 Volvo DL casually, as you can see, on the way to pick up the canoe.

Of course, it's a five hour drive from Fairbanks to Tangle Lakes. 160 km southeast to Delta Junction, then 140 km south on the Richardson Highway to the take-out spot on the Delta River (where we had to leave the Volvo, so we could load everything on it when we reached the end of the paddle, then drive back to my vehicle at the start).

We reached the Tangle Lakes campground, 38 km west of Paxson, on the Denali Highway, around 6 pm. It was pretty crowded with the holiday weekend and hunting season.

But this is where we had to put our craft in, for the beginning of the float trip. So, in spite of the crowd, and noise (people's generators in their campers mainly), there was an upside.

Just over a ridge from the campground, we figured there would be blueberries. We were not disappointed! We spent an hour picking, and Erik made us some fantastic pancakes bursting full of them. Very tasty!

Logistics for float trips can be tricky. We couldn't leave the Volvo at the takeout spot on the Delta River, next to the Richardson Highway, on the way out, because my Ford Escape wouldn't fit everyone and all our gear. So we had to drive to the campground/put-in spot first, set up camp, then stage the vehicles.

So after dinner, we drove both vehicles down to the take-out spot, and left the Volvo there. On the way down though, Erik had to pull over quickly, and I'm glad he did. High-Latitude sunset emergency! Here in the high latitudes, our long twilights give us beautiful drawn-out scenes like this, which demand picture-taking. This was just looking west off the Richardson Highway, near Summit Lake. We were very lucky this weekend to have the weather cooperating. Weak high pressure ridging promised relatively mild weather with a chance of a shower, but no steady, hours-long rains.

Sunday morning, after a leisurely breakfast and getting everything stashed in the canoe, we set out paddling south on Round Tangle Lake, the first of the two large Tangle Lakes to paddle through. The bright, sunny weather, fall colour, and lack of headwind, made this quite enjoyable. You'll note our intrepid assistant editor Mattie swimming behind the canoe, with me rounding up the rear.

For reasons unknown, Mattie decided to be a real challenge on this trip. She had never been on a float trip before. When she was in the canoe, she would whine and squirm, wanting to jump out. When she was swimming or running along onshore, she would still be whining and squirming. What to do? We just tried to manage her as best we could, and of the 48 km we did this trip, she probably swam/ran at least half of them. She has a good lifejacket with a handle on top, with which we could pluck her out of the water and drop her in the canoe at times, which helped.

This is looking north down the Narrow Tangle Lake, which is the second of the two. It is much longer, but narrower, than the Round Tangle Lake. At times it becomes quite narrow, almost like a stream, but it is almost still, current-less, so you have to keep paddling. The two lakes take up the first 14 km of the 48 km total for this route.

After about six hours of paddling and breaks, Narrow Tangle Lake transitioned into the Delta River. At this point, we decided to call it a day and set up camp. Erik recommended a real nice bench 30 metres above the river. It had a great view, up and down the river, as you can see, and the exposed site let more winds through, keeping the clouds of gnats from being too bothersome. This is looking downriver, just around the curve at the end, is where the mainly class II rapids begin, followed by a portage, where you have to put out and haul boats/supplies a kilometer on a rocky trail, which skirts some un-navigable rapids.

We had a great time at this beautiful camp spot, we were able to get a nice fire going all evening, so we stayed around it, having a big dinner and hanging out. It didn't look like any weather was due, and when I last worked the previous fri., our models indicated it should stay dry. Nonetheless I felt an urge to prepare my tent for rain, and shelter my pack, etc.., and urged Erik to do so as well.

Sure enough, around midnight, a heavy shower came through, for over an hour. Mattie and Homer, sleeping out, wanted to come in, but I had no room in my tent for wet canines. Mattie was able to shelter underneath the vestibule of my tent's rainfly though.

The next day, after the rain, donned foggy and chilly, around 1-2C or so. My camera stopped working, the battery drained for some reason. So all the pictures from the second day came from Erik's hands/camera. He snapped this beautiful picture of the morning mist clearing across the river shortly before we packed up and headed out.

We only paddled north about 2 km monday through the first small rapids, I and II's, before reaching the take-out spot for the portage. We hauled everything up onshore. Erik decided to bathe and shave in the river, while I made fun of that, since we'd only been out two days. But he always manages to look clean and neat, unlike yours truly.

After that, he started preparing all his and the kids supplies for the haul up the trail, while I readied mine. Here is where the only real misadventure occurred. We both were focused on these tasks and weren't really aware of what Shane and Megan were up to. I was hauling some of Erik's packs up some rock stairs to stage them there, while he was still unpacking some things. We neglected to coordinate with them and tell them we need to all stay together. After I hauled some loads up the first steep rocky part of the trail and staged them at the top, I noticed Shane and Megan were way up in the distance. I just decided to then take my Alpacka and backpack all the way to the put-in spot, a kilometre up. Unfortunately, they had gotten off the main trail, which I didn't know. I followed them, to keep an eye on them. Shane was up ahead on some faint trails, so I followed him, and we both lost sight of Megan. After some bushwhacking and cursing, we got tothe put-in spot, so then we had to get back and find Megan, and catch up with Erik.

By this time Erik had hauled the canoe up the main trail, which I hadn't been on, and we caught up. He didn't know where Megan was! And Shane had split up with me to go back and find Megan. It then took us over 90 min. to finally get all together with our supplies. Erik was rightfully upset. Had one of the kids been injured in some way, we would have been in a bad spot, hours from help. We both should have paid attention to them and coordinated. I haven't spent much time with kids in the wilderness, so I lost sight of the fact that they easily wander, and need to be kept around. At least Mattie and Homer helped though, they kept running back and forth between us all, and would have been there in case of any bear problems (we only saw one, at a distance, the night before, a medium-size black, when we first set up camp).

We finally got ready to put back in at 230 pm. Here is where the heaviest rapids are, right at the start of this put in. Since my camera wasn't working, I couldn't get any pictures, and Erik was too focused on loading all the supplies, Shane and Megan, and Homer and Mattie, into the canoe. He decided it would be best to line the canoe (walk it through the worst rapids, the water was only knee-thigh deep), then start paddling about 50 metres down, where the rapids were a little gentler, class II instead of II/III. I did the same with my Alpacka. Of course I got soaked, but it was sunny, so I wasn't too worried.

Once we got through that, we had a couple fast fun kilometres of class I/II rapids, which while not overly dangerous, did require us to pay attention to what we were doing and paddle different directions to get through them the most efficiently. Mattie actually stayed in the canoe during this, fortunately. Homer was a perfect gentlemen, on the entire trip, regally poised in his spot, never complaining or squirming.

This picture sums up that situation quite well, notice how Homer is so calm and is questioning why Mattie is so stupid as to keep jumping out of the canoe and then whining while swimming after it. A few hours after the portage fiasco, I got ahead of Erik and the kids, and when we caught up again, Mattie was going full bore swimming and running to keep up. She had put Erik and the kids in jeopardy earlier by squirming in the canoe, almost causing them to capsize. So she had to be taught a lesson, and was not allowed back in for awhile. It didn't help that much, unfortunately!

After a break at 2:45 pm, we all made guesses as to how long it would take to reach the take-out spot. I knew had 30 km more to go, and guessed 4 hours. Erik guessed two, and the kids three. There was quite a slow stretch after this of what seemed like 8-10 km where there seemed to be almost no current. That alone took a couple hours.

This beautiful fall colour picture Erik took sums up that section quite well, you can see how clear and calm the river is here.

That meant I had to paddle hard in the Alpacka to keep up with canoe. Canoes slice through the water, and a paddler in one has about a four-to-one advantage over a packrafter paddling their little craft bobbing on top of the water like a leaf. So my arms were getting pretty tired.

Around 4 pm, the first silty stream out of the higher glaciated mountains of the Alaska Range merged in to the Delta River, and it lost its clarity, and became the silty, braided river, we usually associate with Alaska range river-courses. At this point, with all the braids, it required alot of attention to keep in a deeper channel, and not ground on shallow gravel or rocks. Which I did frequently, occasioned by much cursing, and heavy pushing with my paddle to keep moving, or getting up and pulling the raft back into a deeper area. Since I had been soaked most of the day from the waist down, I was getting pretty cold when we stopped on breaks. Paddling though, I was staying warm.

After our 4 pm rest/food break, Erik and the kids got way ahead of me, and I never caught back up. The final kilometers here to the put-out were in the silty, braided, but fast, shallow section of the Delta River. It was quite beautiful though with the sunshine, fall colour, and steep terrain. I finally reached the take-out spot at 645 pm, about 15-20 min. behind Erik and the kids. So my earlier four hour guess was the most accurate (and even then I thought we'd be lucky!). But the river was pretty fast the last 10-15 km or so, easily 10-15 km per hour I'd guess.

This is looking north from the put-out spot to 2900 metre Mt. Silvertip. You can see the braids in the silty river.
I was relieved to be done when I spied Erik and the kids, my arms were tired, and I was cold, so it was a good time to finish.

Still, I knew our trip was coming to an end, which is always disappointing when having fun in a place like this.

Looking north from the put-out spot, you can see 2000 metre Rainbow Ridge, a beautiful sheer rock wall jutting up above the east side of the Richardson Highway.

It only took us a few minutes to pack up and load everything in the Volvo, to drive back to the Tangle Lakes Campground. Where we could pick up my Ford Escape, and then commence the return journey.

We got everything separated and loaded into the two vehicles at the campground around 830 pm, and then stopped at Paxson. I took Shane and Megan, so I could drop them off in North Pole, where they live with their mother, while Erik went south back to Valdez. Since it was already late on a monday night, and the kids had school the next day, I gunned it and went 120-150 kph on the Richardson highway, until reaching Fort Greely. There was little traffic, which helped. I didn't get the sleepy kids back to their house until 1130 pm though. But they had a great time, and the A.P.R. staff headed back to the comforts of our Chena Ridge Research Centre. Which we reached at midnight. We all had a great time in the beautiful scenery and late summer/early fall weather. And learned the importance of managing children in wilderness settings more closely. All in all, a great success.

Next year though, Erik and I want to do traverse/floats with just our Alpacka's, and no kids or canines. Multitudes of options there! Cheers.

A.C.-C.U. III - UPDATE, IT GETS WORSE [and] CAN ANYTHING BE DONE?

What are they to do? The major multi-national privately-owned oil companies have been funding "researchers" aimed at sowing confusion about the reality of global climate change due to the CO2 emissions from our fossil-fuel based economy. And fighting hard to prevent any significant governmental initiatives, in this or other countries, to limit emissions.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/19

In spite of amplifying trends in things such as major floods, droughts, and wildfires. I thought this picture was particularly worth sharing, as it's imagery is very powerful. This is from the 150,000 acre Station Fire just north of Los Angeles, last sunday, 30 AUG 09. Temperatures in the inland areas of Southern California have been over 100F for the past two weeks, leading to this spectacular fire behaviour, a fire plume crowned by a "pyrocumulus" These only develop when fires are burning every bit of fuel on the ground (crown-fires) in an intense conflagration, which is unstoppable by any form of suppression attempt. And, there has been very little wind. God help them around that fire if a Santa Ana wind event were to develop on it! Get used to scenes like this, there will be alot more of them in the coming years, and in places not necessarily used to it.

Unfortunately for our beloved oil companies, who experienced record profits over the past four years, (Exxon posted the greatest quarterly profits of any corporation in history last year!), reality has a way of intruding upon even the best set and funded of plans. This reality though is not just bad for the oil companies, but something that will affect us all, in very detrimental ways, unless rapid, concerted, global action is taken to limit CO2 and Methane emissions, as well as to stop tropical deforestation for unsustainable livestock ranches and biofuels plantations.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/09/03

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/31-9

Published on Monday, August 31, 2009 by Associated Press

Climate Trouble May Be Bubbling Up in Far North

MACKENZIE RIVER DELTA, Northwest Territories — Only a squawk from a sandhill crane broke the Arctic silence — and a low gurgle of bubbles, a watery whisper of trouble repeated in countless spots around the polar world.

"On a calm day, you can see 20 or more `seeps' out across this lake," said Canadian researcher Rob Bowen, sidling his small rubber boat up beside one of them. A tossed match would have set it ablaze.

"It's essentially pure methane."
Pure methane, gas bubbling up from underwater vents, escaping into northern skies, adds to the global-warming gases accumulating in the atmosphere. And pure methane escaping in the massive amounts known to be locked in the Arctic permafrost and seabed would spell a climate catastrophe.
Is such an unlocking under way?

Researchers say air temperatures here in northwest Canada, in Siberia and elsewhere in the Arctic have risen more than 2.5 C (4.5 F) since 1970 — much faster than the global average. The summer thaw is reaching deeper into frozen soil, at a rate of 4 centimeters (1.5 inches) a year, and a further 7 C (13 F) temperature rise is possible this century, says the authoritative, U.N.-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

In 2007, air monitors detected a rise in methane concentrations in the atmosphere, apparently from far northern sources. Russian researchers in Siberia expressed alarm, warning of a potential surge in the powerful greenhouse gas, additional warming of several degrees, and unpredictable consequences for Earth's climate.

Others say massive seeps of methane might take centuries. But the Russian scenario is disturbing enough to have led six U.S. national laboratories last year to launch a joint investigation of rapid methane release. And IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri in July asked his scientific network to focus on "abrupt, irreversible climate change" from thawing permafrost.
The data will come from teams like one led by Scott Dallimore, who with Bowen and others pitched tents here on the remote, boggy fringe of North America, 2,200 kilometers (1,400 miles) from the North Pole, to learn more about seeps in the 25,000 lakes of this vast river delta.
A "puzzle," Dallimore calls it.

"Many factors are poorly studied, so we're really doing frontier science here," the Geological Survey of Canada scientist said. "There is a very large storehouse of greenhouse gases within the permafrost, and if that storehouse of greenhouse gases is fluxing to the surface, that's important to know. And it's important to know if that flux will change with time."

Permafrost, tundra soil frozen year-round and covering almost one-fifth of Earth's land surface, runs anywhere from 50 to 600 meters (160 to 2,000 feet) deep in this region. Entombed in that freezer is carbon — plant and animal matter accumulated through millennia.

As the soil thaws, these ancient deposits finally decompose, attacked by microbes, producing carbon dioxide and — if in water — methane. Both are greenhouse gases, but methane is many times more powerful in warming the atmosphere.

Researchers led by the University of Florida's Ted Schuur last year calculated that the top 3 meters (10 feet) of permafrost alone contain more carbon than is currently in the atmosphere.
"It's safe to say the surface permafrost, 3 to 5 meters, is at risk of thawing in the next 100 years," Schuur said by telephone from an Alaska research site. "It can't stay intact."

Methane also is present in another form, as hydrates — ice-like formations deep underground and under the seabed in which methane molecules are trapped within crystals of frozen water. If warmed, the methane will escape.

Dallimore, who has long researched hydrates as energy sources, believes a breakdown of such huge undersea formations may have produced conical "hills" found offshore in the Beaufort Sea bed, some of them 40 meters (more than 100 feet) high.

With underwater robots, he detected methane gas leaking from these seabed features, which resemble the strange hills ashore here that the Inuvialuit, or Eskimos, call "pingos." And because the coastal plain is subsiding and seas are rising from warming, more permafrost is being inundated, exposed to water warmer than the air.

The methane seeps that the Canadians were studying in the Mackenzie Delta, amid grassy islands, steel-gray lakes and summertime temperatures well above freezing, are saucer-like indentations just 10 meters (30 feet) or so down on the lake bed.

The ultimate source of that gas — hydrates, decomposition or older natural gas deposits — is unclear, but Dallimore's immediate goal is quantifying the known emissions and finding the unknown.

With tent-like, instrument-laden enclosures they positioned over two seeps, each several meters (yards) wide, the researchers have determined they are emitting methane at a rate of up to 0.6 cubic meters (almost 1 cubic yard) per minute.

Dallimore's team is also monitoring the seeps with underwater listening devices, to assess whether seasonal change — warming — affects the emissions rate.

Even if the lake seeps are centuries old, Bowen said, the question is, "Will they be accelerated by recent changes?"

A second question: Are more seeps developing?

To begin answering that, Dallimore is working with German and Canadian specialists in aerial surveying, teams that will fly over swaths of Arctic terrain to detect methane "hot spots" via spectrometric imagery, instruments identifying chemicals by their signatures on the light spectrum.

Research crews are hard at work elsewhere, too, to get a handle on this possible planetary threat.

"I and others are trying to take field observations and get it scaled up to global models," said Alaska researcher Schuur. From some 400 boreholes drilled deep into the tundra worldwide, "we see historic warming of permafrost. Much of it is now around 2 below zero (28 F)," Schuur said.

A Coast Guard C-130 aircraft is overflying Alaska this summer with instruments sampling the air for methane and carbon dioxide. In parts of Alaska, scientists believe the number of "thermokarst" lakes — formed when terrain collapses over thawing permafrost and fills with meltwater — may have doubled in the past three decades. Those lakes then expand, thawing more permafrost on their edges, exposing more carbon.

Off Norway's Arctic archipelago of Svalbard last September, British scientists reported finding 250 methane plumes rising from the shallow seabed. They're probably old, scientists said, but only further research can assess whether they're stable. In March, Norwegian officials did say methane levels had risen on Svalbard.

Afloat above the huge, shallow continental shelf north of Siberia, Russian researchers have detected seabed "methane chimneys" sending gas bubbling up to the surface, possibly from hydrates.

Reporting to the European Geophysical Union last year, the scientists, affiliated with the University of Alaska and the Russian Academy of Sciences, cited "extreme" saturation of methane in surface waters and in the air above. They said up to 10 percent of the undersea permafrost area had melted, and it was "highly possible" that this would open the way to abrupt release of an estimated 50 billion tons of methane.

Depending on how much dissolved in the sea, that might multiply methane in the atmosphere several-fold, boosting temperatures enough to cause "catastrophic greenhouse warming," as the Russians called it. It would be self-perpetuating, melting more permafrost, emitting more methane.

Some might label that alarmism. And Stockholm University researcher Orjan Gustafsson, a partner in the Russians' field work, acknowledged that "the scientific community is quite split on how fast the permafrost can thaw."

But there's no doubt the north contains enough potential methane and carbon dioxide to cause abrupt climate change, Gustafsson said by telephone from Sweden.

Canada's pre-eminent permafrost expert, Chris Burn, has trekked to lonely locations in these high latitudes for almost three decades, meticulously chronicling the changes in the tundra.
On a stopover at the Aurora Research Institute in the Mackenzie Delta town of Inuvik, the Carleton University scientist agreed "we need many, many more field observations." But his teams have found the frozen ground warming down to about 80 meters, and he believes the world is courting disaster in failing to curb warming by curbing greenhouse emissions.

"If we lost just 1 percent of the carbon in permafrost today, we'd be close to a year's contributions from industrial sources," he said. "I don't think policymakers have woken up to this. It's not in their risk assessments."

How likely is a major release?
"I don't think it's a case of likelihood," he said. "I think we are playing with fire."
Copyright 2009 Associated Press

So folks, there you have it. As you know, methane is 22 times more efficient of a greenhouse gas than CO2. Uncontrolled vast releases of it from our melting Arctic permafrost and undersea hydrate deposits will create rapid warming of a scale that could lead to melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and around the coastal margins of Antarctica. Which would create rapid sea-level rises of 20-40 feet in a decade. Not only would low-lying coastal countries like Bangladesh be inundated, but so would all the global industrial infra-structure for energy and food distribution. What kind of global effects would that have? I'm sure you can think of some pretty apocalyptic scenarios, many people have. How long do we have, before this occurs, if nothing is done? 10 to 20 years, at best.

Can anything be done, in the next 10 to 20 years, or sooner? Yes. Here are some promising ideas, which if implemented rapidly, globally, along with conservation measures, would buy us needed time, to transition to a low-carbon industrial base.

http://www.physorg.com/news170664833.html

Forests of Artificial Trees Could Slow Global Warming

August 28th, 2009 by Lin Edwards

(PhysOrg.com) -- A new study on how technology could help to regulate climate change has studied hundreds of ideas, and selected three considered practical and able to be implemented quickly. The report's authors propose the construction of forests of artificial trees and installing tubes of algae on the sides of buildings to absorb carbon dioxide. They also proposed painting the roofs of buildings white to keep the Earth cool by reducing the amount of solar radiation absorbed.

The engineers from Britain's Institution of Mechanical Engineers (IME) have asked their government for an investment of 10 million pounds (around 16.3 million dollars) in these ideas to counter the threat to Britain posed by global warming.

One of the authors of the report, Dr Tim Fox, said geo-engineering techniques could buy us a few extra years' breathing space while we transition to a low-carbon world, and may help ward off the climate change scenarios we fear. The report claimed global temperatures could rise by as much as 6°C in the next 90 years if we don't act soon, and the results would include major refugee movements as well as food and water shortages.

One proposal was the building of forests of artificial trees. Each synthetic tree could capture up to 10 tons of CO2 a day, which is thousands of times more than a real tree. Each tree would cost around $24,400, and a forest of 100,000 of them could be constructed within the next couple of decades using existing technologies. A forest that size would be able to remove 60% of the UK's total CO2 emissions. Globally, forests of five to ten million trees could absorb all the CO2 from sources other than power plants.

The trees would have a special synthetic filter that absorbs carbon dioxide. When the filters had absorbed their load of CO2 they would be replaced with new filters and the old ones would be stored in empty gas and oil reservoirs, such as depleted oil wells in the North Sea. The trees are already at the prototype stage and their design is well-advanced. The prototype is the size of an average shipping container.

Another proposal put forward by the study was to install transparent tubes filled with algae on the outside of buildings. The "algae based photobioreactors", as they call them, would absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, and could later be turned into charcoal, which could then be buried to trap the carbon dioxide.

The third idea proposed by the IME was to paint city roofs white to reflect sunlight back into space and prevent it warming the Earth. Cities can be up to 4°C hotter than suburban areas, and reflective roofs could reduce the need for cooling and save up to 60% of a building's energy use.

Dr Fox warned that geo-engineering ideas such as those proposed are not a silver bullet that will solve all the problems, and they would need to be used in conjunction with other measures such as reducing our emissions and adapting to changes in the climate.
More information: Read the full Institution of Mechanical Engineers report
© 2009 PhysOrg.com

Another important thing that can be done is for governments World-wide to fund focused research into developing fuels from algae cultures. It has already been demonstrated that certain types of algae when grown in concentrated "farms" will produce an oil that can be easily refined into diesel and even kerosene for jet engines. In fact, an Air New Zealand 767 took a test flight this year using a 50-50 mix of this algae-based fuel and conventional kerosene. If enough research/development funding could be given, "carbon-neutral" transportation fuel could be mass-produced on a scale to displace the bulk of what is currently extracted from fossil fuels.

OK, we know what needs to be done, and how urgently and quickly. But how to pay for it? The US government is running huge deficits, in the trillions of dollars. How can it undertake large scale projects, similar to the NASA space program in the 1960s, to mass-produce and deploy artificial tree systems, sponsor energy conservation programs, design and deploy things like the building algae systems, and crash-develop alternative energy/fuel resources?

Well, this article by Shamus Cooke, in yesterday's Counterpunch web-site, gave some very good ideas: http://counterpunch.org/cooke09022009.html

"Make no mistake, the corporate elite want the U.S. deficit taken care of and they don’t want to pay higher taxes to do it. They rightfully fear that foreign investors — most notably China and Japan — will quit feeding the American debt machine unless the deficit is drastically reduced.
Instead of making workers pay off the deficit, the corporate elite should be forced to. A plan of action to accomplish this might look something like this:

1) Pass REAL health reform: nationalized, single-payer health care without the insurance companies, eliminate the Medicare windfall profits for the pharmaceutical companies by operating these companies as public utilities and have the government set affordable prices for all medications. Over the years, this will save billions of dollars.

2) Pass the Employee Free Choice Act: unionized workers make more money, and will thus pay more in taxes to help reduce the deficit.

3) A massive jobs creation program: masses of unemployed workers cost the government billions of dollars in unemployment benefits. Creating living-wage jobs while rebuilding the U.S. failing infrastructure is a very logical alternative.

4) Tax the rich: The top tax bracket should pay what they paid pre-Reagan, which was 70 percent of their income. (If necessary, tax them what they paid under Truman, which was 91 percent.)

5) End the Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

6) Drastically reduce the military budget.

7) No more bailouts: Make public all the bailout spending, and make all those who received money return it. If the banks cannot pay back the money, take over their assets, i.e., nationalize them.

8) Require that the rich pay the same percentage of their salary into Social Security as the rest of us. This involves removing a cap on salaries over $102,000 which eliminates payment into Social Security on salaries over that amount."

The savings from implementing policies like this could easily pay for the necessary measures to reduce CO2 and methane emissions, as well as gradually start to bring the federal budget back toward the black. Unfortunately, as long as the corporate media, defense, and fossil fuel/transportation industries maintain control of our legislators, these ideas are totally utopian.

Another consideration is the extreme militarism of the U.S. How many millions of barrels of oil a year go to support all the military operations this country undertakes? And how much of a contribution is this to the total global CO2 emissions? Just ending the illegal, immoral, and corporate-profit driven wars the US is involved in, and reducing it's global military footprint, will also help in the fight to prevent runaway warming from developing. Can we do it?

Cheers.

ARCTIC CLIMATE CHANGE UPDATE III - Bad News and [Good News?]

Your lead editor here at the Alaska Progressive Review is on the long-term M.S. plan for a forestry degree from the University of Alaska. My thesis project involves using climate change modeling to estimate changes in Interior Alaska fire season severity over the next 5 to 8 decades. In addition, during my 22 years of operational weather forecasting experience as a meteorologist throughout the northwestern lower 48 and Alaska, I have witnessed many changes in weather patterns and occurrences, which I feel are highly significant. Things such as stronger high pressure ridging episodes, throughout the year, and less frequent winter deep-cold spells here in the sub-Arctic, and consequently, fewer and weaker "Arctic outbreaks" of this cold air transported south into the northern tier of the lower 48.

The University of Alaska is on the forefront of global warming/climate change research, as the Arctic regions are experiencing some of the most rapid changes on the planet (the other most rapidly changing place is the northerly reaches of Antarctica). http://amap.no/acia/

Thus, we here at A.P.R. feel it is imperative to share the latest state of the science information regarding our changing climate and atmospheric/oceanic systems. Because rapid action is urgently necessary to limit CO2 and methane emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation, before so-called "positive-feedback" processes overwhelm the climate system and initiate runaway warming processes. The results of which would be greatly disastrous for all on our planet. BAD NEWS.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2008/apr/26/featuresreviews.guardianreview16ardianreview16
You might remember seeing some graphs like these, if you saw The Inconvenient Truth, the movie Al Gore, our ex-2000 president (if there had been a real election), helped to make. We here at A.P.R. viewed this movie as extremely important in documenting the climate change problem, and felt it was an accurate depiction of the state of the science.

http://www.climatecrisis.net/

The figure to the right is from the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, and shows the expected changes in CO2 concentrations, and resultant warming, by 2100. As you can see, barring any significant reductions in current emissions (which seems likely, unfortunately), average temperature increases in the Arctic of 6C or more are likely by 2100. Which follows exactly the trend of concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere.

Which is what this figure shows. The concentration of CO2 over the past 1000 years (measured from bubbles of air in glacier ice cores world-wide) has varied little until around 1900. And likewise global mean temperatures (reconstructed from a variety of sources, glacial ice, tree-ring analysis, etc..) have varied little, until after 1900. And the trend of increasing temperature matches exactly, that of the increasing CO2 concentration.

With all that in mind, what has been happening, and is happening, here in Alaska, with global warming?

Well, let's take a look at a few things.

This image shows the total change in mean annual temperatures throughout Alaska since 1949. Note how significant changes of 2.5F to 5.0F have occurred across the entire state.











http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.html

Even more interesting is the seasonal breakdown of these increases. Note how most areas have experienced the greatest warming in the winter season (Fairbanks and the interior, 7 to 9F increases!). Now, that has made it easier living here, fewer days of deep cold, for example (the -30F or colder ones especially). But this comes at a price. Permafrost thawing is also occuring as a result, which has and will even more greatly affect roads and infrastructure. In addition, thawing permafrost releases more CO2 and methane, a "positive feedback".

How is this warming manifesting here in Alaska? One thing we are seeing, are increasing frequencies of stronger high pressure ridging, throughout the year. High pressure ridging refers to the flow patterns in the jet stream, the meandering generally westerly overall atmospheric circulation between the subtropics and the polar regions, that transports heat poleward, and cold equator-ward, to maintain an overall temperature balance. High pressure ridging is when warmer air in the Northern Hemisphere moves northward in the jet stream, forming a "ridge" in the circulation pattern, which is just a bubble, or large mass, of warm air. Above average temperatures occur with a ridge pattern, and usually dry weather, though in summer, on it's edges, sometimes enough moisture and instability will be present to generate thunderstorms (and thus, start more fires!). One other thing to mention as well, about stronger, and more persistent high pressure ridging patterns is this. Up and downstream from a high pressure ridge, there are low pressure troughs. If an area is under a low pressure trough, blocked from moving by a strong ridge, a spell of very wet weather can occur. In the right circumstances, this will lead to stronger storms and increased flooding episodes.

An excellent example of this occurred at the end of April this year here in Alaska and Northwest Canada, and was the subject of our "Year Without a Spring?" post. This strong high pressure ridge, which built north from the subtropics, brought temperatures in the 70sF to interior Alaska abruptly at the end of April, after just an average slowly thawing month, with snowpacks and river ice just gradually thinning, as is usually the case. The rapid warmth sent a surge of snowmelt into the waterways of the region, and the thick river ice began moving and jamming, causing extensive flooding. Many villages along the Yukon river experienced major damage from this occurrence, and are hectically trying to rebuild, before the still harsh sub-arctic winter sets in.
http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/05/year-without-spring.html

Then, there are our fire seasons. So far, since 2004, we have burned approximately 15 million acres in interior Alaska, 3 million this summer. This is about 14 percent of the 110 million burnable acres in the region. You can see the trend in our wildfire acreages since 1955, around 1986 or so, a trend toward higher seasonal accumulations more frequently began, which has also been seen in Western Canada and the Western Lower 48.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/24-6
This article, at the above website, describes the increasing fire trends in Canada and Siberia, so unfortunately, this trend, another positive feedback mechanism, is occurring globally. Greece is experiencing wildfire emergencies currently.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8217433.stm

And, the tragic Australian fires last February, which caused 173 fatalities (the worst natural disaster in that country's history), were the subject of our first "Warning Lights Are Flashing" post.
http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/03/warning-lights-are-flashing-australia.html

Here are the perimeters of the 2009 fires in Interior Alaska. I worked on the very largest one, southwest of Fairbanks, the Railbelt Complex, forecasting weather for the suppression team this past July, for two weeks, when it was "only" 150,000 to 350,000 acres. It eventually grew to over 600,000.

What caused this large fire season of 3 million acres? And the emergencies in Greece and Australia, and our record 2004/2005 fire seasons?

Anomalously strong and persistent high pressure ridging.

High pressure ridging covered Alaska and Northwest Canada from late June through the entire month of July. Fairbanks had it's driest July ever, since records began in 1904 (and driest summer month ever!), with only .06.

Fairbanks also picked up it's first day over 90F since 1994 this summer, when the temperature reached 91F on 08 July. And, as you can see from this figure, most of the days of the month had above average high and low temperatures.

So there you have it. The warming climate in the Arctic is occurring because stronger, more frequent, and more persistent high pressure ridging episodes are transporting greater amounts of heat northward. Since we've only warmed 1-2C over the past 60 years, another 4-6C of warming would therefore mean a strong amplification of this high pressure ridging pattern occurrence. Meaning, stronger more frequent warm spells, and all the ramifications thereof.

Here are some articles detailing changes occurring for the Arctic as a whole, which are very interesting and alarming.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/28/climate-change-poles

Climate change hitting entire Arctic ecosystem, says report

Extensive climate change is now affecting every form of life in the Arctic, according to a major new assessment by international polar scientists.

In the past four years, air temperatures have increased, sea ice has declined sharply, surface waters in the Arctic ocean have warmed and permafrost is in some areas rapidly thawing.
In addition, says the report released today at a Norwegian government seminar, plants and trees are growing more vigorously, snow cover is decreasing 1-2% a year and glaciers are shrinking.

Scientists from Norway, Canada, Russia and the US contributed to the Arctic monitoring and assessment programme (Amap) study, which says new factors such as "black carbon" – soot – ozone and methane may now be contributing to global and arctic warming as much as carbon dioxide.

"Black carbon and ozone in particular have a strong seasonal pattern that makes their impacts particularly important in the Arctic," it says.

The report's main findings are:

Land
Permafrost is warming fast and at its margins thawing. Plants are growing more vigorously and densely. In northern Alaska, temperatures have been rising since the 1970s. In Russia, the tree line has advanced up hills and mountains at 10 metres a year. Nearly all glaciers are decreasing in mass, resulting in rising sea levels as the water drains to the ocean.

Summer sea ice
The most striking change in the Arctic in recent years has been the reduction in summer sea ice in 2007. This was 23% less than the previous record low of 5.6m sq kilometres in 2005, and 39% below the 1979-2000 average. New satellite data suggests the ice is much thinner than it used to be. For the first time in existing records, both the north-west and north-east passages were ice-free in summer 2008. However, the 2008 winter ice extent was near the year long-term average.

Greenland
The Greenland ice sheet has continued to melt in the past four years with summer temperatures consistently above the long-term average since the mid 1990s. In 2007, the area experiencing melt was 60% greater than in 1998. Melting lasted 20 days longer than usual at sea level and 53 days longer at 2-3,000m heights.

Warmer waters
In 2007, some ice-free areas were as much as 5C warmer than the long-term average. Arctic waters appear to have warmed as a result of the influx of warmer waters from the Pacific and Atlantic. The loss of reflective, white sea ice also means that more solar radiation is absorbed by the dark water, heating surface layers further.

Black carbon
Black carbon, or soot, is emitted from inefficient burning such as in diesel engines or from the burning of crops. It is warming the Arctic by creating a haze which absorbs sunlight, and it is also deposited on snow, darkening the surface and causing more sunlight to be absorbed.

Check out the image to the right. An Arctic sea ice image from 20 August, 1980, next to one from 20 August, 2009. Can you see the differences? They are very significant. Here is the lastest Arctic sea ice update from the National Snow and Ice Data center:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

ARCTIC SEA ICE UPDATE

"During the first half of August, Arctic ice extent declined more slowly than during the same period in 2007 and 2008. The slower decline is primarily due to a recent atmospheric circulation pattern, which transported ice toward the Siberian coast and discouraged export of ice out of the Arctic Ocean. It is now unlikely that 2009 will see a record low extent, but the minimum summer ice extent will still be much lower than the 1979 to 2000 average.

Overview of conditions

On August 17, Arctic sea ice extent was 6.26 million square kilometers (2.42 million square miles). This is 960,000 square kilometers (370,000 square miles) more ice than for the same day in 2007, and 1.37 million square kilometers (530,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. On August 8, the 2009 extent decreased below the 1979 to 2000 average minimum annual extent, with a month of melt still remaining."

Unfortunately, the news keeps getting worse. Both the increasing wildfire acreage trends across the Northern Hemisphere, and this decreasing Arctic sea ice coverage are positive feedback mechanisms. The sea ice coverage because decreasing areas allow more heat to be absorbed by the water, which retains the heat longer, which delays freezing longer in the fall. The new ice over the winter freezes thinner, and melts off sooner the next year. And so on...

This next article though describes what we think is the most ominous finding to date. Because if methane clathrate deposits from the seafloor are really melting now and releasing methane gas into the ocean (and eventually into the atmosphere), runaway warming is nearly upon us. Methane is 22 times more efficient of a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and rapid increases in its atmospheric concentration will rapidly amplify warming, warming ocean waters further, triggering more methane releases, etc.. There are no mechanisms known that could stop this, once it starts.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8205864.stm

Methane seeps from Arctic sea-bed
By Judith Burns Science and environment reporter, BBC News

Methane bubbles observed by sonar, escape from sea-bed as temperatures rise
Scientists say they have evidence that the powerful greenhouse gas methane is escaping from the Arctic sea-bed.

Researchers say this could be evidence of a predicted positive feedback effect of climate change.
As temperatures rise, the sea-bed grows warmer and frozen water crystals in the sediment break down, allowing methane trapped inside them to escape.

The research team found that more than 250 plumes of methane bubbles are rising from the sea-bed off Norway.

The joint British and German research team detected the bubbles using a type of sonar normally used to search for shoals of fish. Once detected, the bubbles were sampled and tested for methane at a range of depths.

Writing in Geophysical Research Letters, the team says the methane was rising from an area of sea-bed off West Spitsbergen, from depths between 150m and 400m.

The gas is normally trapped as "methane hydrate" in sediment under the ocean floor.
METHANE HYDRATES

Methane gas is trapped inside a crystal structure of water-ice
The gas is released when the ice melts, normally at 0C
At higher pressure, ie under the ocean, hydrates are stable at higher temperatures
"Methane hydrate" is an ice-like substance composed of water and methane which is stable under conditions of high pressure and low temperature.

As temperatures rise, the hydrate breaks down. So this new evidence shows that methane is stable at water depths greater than 400m off Spitsbergen.

However, data collected over 30 years shows it was then stable at water depths as shallow as 360m.

Ocean has warmed

Temperature records show that this area of the ocean has warmed by 1C during the same period.

The research was carried out as part of the International Polar Year Initiative, funded by Britain's Natural Environment Research Council (Nerc).

The team says this is the first time that this loss of stability associated with temperature rise has been observed during the current geological period.

Professor Tim Minshull of the National Oceanography Centre at Southampton told BBC News: "We already knew there was some methane hydrate in the ocean off Spitsbergen and that's an area where climate change is happening rather faster than just about anywhere else in the world."

1. Methane hydrate is stable below 400m
2. Nearer the surface the hydrate breaks down as temperatures rise and the methane is released
3. Gas rises from the sea-bed in plumes of bubbles - most of it dissolves before it reaches the surface
4. So far scientists haven't detected methane breaking the ocean surface - but they don't rule out the possibility

"There's been an idea for a long time that if the oceans warm, methane might be released from hydrate beneath the sea floor and generate a positive greenhouse effect.

"What we're trying to do is to use lots of different techniques to assess whether this was something that was likely to happen in a relatively short time scale off Spitsbergen."

However, methane is already released from ocean floor hydrates at higher temperatures and lower pressures - so the team also suggests that some methane release may have been going on in this area since the last ice age.

Significant discovery

Their most significant finding is that climate change means the gas is being released from more and deeper areas of the Arctic Ocean.

Professor Minshull said: "Our survey was designed to work out how much methane might be released by future ocean warming; we did not expect to discover such strong evidence that this process has already started."

"We were slightly surprised that if there was so much methane rising why no one had seen it before. But I think the reason is that you have to be rather dedicated to spot it because these plumes are only perhaps 50m to 100m across.

"The device we were using is only switched on during biological cruises. It's not normally used on geophysical or oceanographic cruises like ours. And of course you've got to monitor it 24 hours a day. In fact, we only spotted the phenomenon half way through our cruise. We decided to go back and take a closer look."

The team found that most of the methane is being dissolved into the seawater and did not detect evidence of the gas breaking the surface of the ocean and getting into the atmosphere.

The researchers stress that this does not mean that the gas does not enter the atmosphere. They point out that the methane seeps are unpredictable and erratic in quantity, size and duration.

It is possible that larger seeps at different times and locations might in fact be vigorous enough to break through the ocean surface.

Most of the methane reacts with the oxygen in the water to form carbon dioxide, another greenhouse gas. In sea water, this forms carbonic acid which adds to ocean acidification, with consequent problems for biodiversity.

Graham Westbrook, lead author and professor of geophysics at the University of Birmingham, said: "If this process becomes widespread along Arctic continental margins, tens of megatonnes of methane a year - equivalent to 5-10% of the total amount released globally by natural sources, could be released into the ocean."

The team is planning another expedition next year to observe the behaviour of the methane plumes over time. They are also engaged in ongoing research into the amount of methane hydrate under this area of the ocean floor.

Ultimately, they want to be able to predict how much might be vulnerable to temperature change and in what timescale.

As the next article shows, warming ocean waters are breaking records. Combined with the news from the previous article, describing the Arctic seafloor methane releases, we here at A.P.R. are very alarmed.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/08/20-13

Hot Water: World Sets Ocean Temperature Record
by Seth Borenstein

WASHINGTON — Steve Kramer spent an hour and a half swimming in the ocean Sunday — in Maine. The water temperature was 72 degrees — more like Ocean City, Md., this time of year. And Ocean City's water temp hit 88 degrees this week, toasty even by Miami Beach standards.
Kramer, 26, who lives in the seaside town of Scarborough, said it was the first time he's ever swam so long in Maine's coastal waters. "Usually, you're in five minutes and you're out," he said.
It's not just the ocean off the Northeast coast that is super-warm this summer. July was the hottest the world's oceans have been in almost 130 years of record-keeping.

The average water temperature worldwide was 62.6 degrees, according to the National Climatic Data Center, the branch of the U.S. government that keeps world weather records. June was only slightly cooler, while August could set another record, scientists say. The previous record was set in July 1998 during a powerful El Nino weather pattern.

Meteorologists said there's a combination of forces at work: A natural El Nino system just getting started on top of worsening man-made global warming, and a dash of random weather variations. The resulting ocean heat is already harming threatened coral reefs. It could also hasten the melting of Arctic sea ice and help hurricanes strengthen.

The Gulf of Mexico, where warm water fuels hurricanes, has temperatures dancing around 90. Most of the water in the Northern Hemisphere has been considerably warmer than normal. The Mediterranean is about three degrees warmer than normal. Higher temperatures rule in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

The heat is most noticeable near the Arctic, where water temperatures are as much as 10 degrees above average. The tongues of warm water could help melt sea ice from below and even cause thawing of ice sheets on Greenland, said Waleed Abdalati, director of the Earth Science and Observation Center at the University of Colorado.

Breaking heat records in water is more ominous as a sign of global warming than breaking temperature marks on land, because water takes longer to heat up and does not cool off as easily as land.

"This warm water we're seeing doesn't just disappear next year; it'll be around for a long time," said climate scientist Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in British Columbia. It takes five times more energy to warm water than land.

The warmer water "affects weather on the land," Weaver said. "This is another yet really important indicator of the change that's occurring."

Georgia Institute of Technology atmospheric science professor Judith Curry said water is warming in more places than usual, something that has not been seen in more than 50 years.
Add to that an unusual weather pattern this summer where the warmest temperatures seem to be just over oceans, while slightly cooler air is concentrated over land, said Deke Arndt, head of climate monitoring at the climate data center.

The pattern is so unusual that he suggested meteorologists may want to study that pattern to see what's behind it.

The effects of that warm water are already being seen in coral reefs, said C. Mark Eakin, coordinator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's coral reef watch. Long-term excessive heat bleaches colorful coral reefs white and sometimes kills them.
Bleaching has started to crop up in the Florida Keys, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands — much earlier than usual. Typically, bleaching occurs after weeks or months of prolonged high water temperatures. That usually means September or October in the Caribbean, said Eakin. He found bleaching in Guam Wednesday. It's too early to know if the coral will recover or die. Experts are "bracing for another bad year," he said.

The problems caused by the El Nino pattern are likely to get worse, the scientists say.
An El Nino occurs when part of the central Pacific warms up, which in turn changes weather patterns worldwide for many months. El Nino and its cooling flip side, La Nina, happen every few years.

During an El Nino, temperatures on water and land tend to rise in many places, leading to an increase in the overall global average temperature. An El Nino has other effects, too, including dampening Atlantic hurricane formation and increasing rainfall and mudslides in Southern California.

Warm water is a required fuel for hurricanes. What's happening in the oceans "will add extra juice to the hurricanes," Curry said.

Hurricane activity has been quiet for much of the summer, but that may change soon, she said. Hurricane Bill quickly became a major storm and the National Hurricane Center warned that warm waters are along the path of the hurricane for the next few days.
Hurricanes need specific air conditions, so warmer water alone does not necessarily mean more or bigger storms, said James Franklin, chief hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

[Good News ? ]

Our last article to present describes some findings from Greenland, which does on the face of it, seem like good news:
http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=981

FOR RELEASE ON Thursday, April 23, 2009 11:00 AM PDT

Thursday, April 23, 2009

Wetlands Likely Source of Methane from Ancient Warming Event

Analysis of Greenland ice led by Scripps researchers could allay fears about methane 'burp' accelerating current global warming trend

Scripps Institution of Oceanography / University of California, San Diego

An expansion of wetlands and not a large-scale melting of frozen methane deposits is the likely cause of a spike in atmospheric methane gas that took place some 11,600 years ago, according to an international research team led by Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego.

Scripps Institution of Oceanography geoscientist Jeff Severinghaus extracts blocks of ice from an ice sheet in Greenland.

Severinghaus participated in an international analysis of methane trapped in the ice sheet to understand the origins of a sudden burst of atmospheric methane 11,600 years ago. Photo: Vas Petrenko, University of Colorado, Boulder

The finding is expected to come as a relief to scientists and climate watchers concerned that huge accelerations of global warming might have been touched off by methane melts in the past and could happen again now as the planet warms. By measuring the amount of carbon-14 isotopes in methane from air bubbles trapped in glacial ice, the researchers determined that the surge that took place nearly 12,000 years ago was more chemically consistent with an expansion of wetlands. Wetland regions, which produce large amounts of methane from bacterial breakdown of organic matter, are known to have spread during warming trends throughout history."This is good news for global warming because it suggests that methane clathrates do not respond to warming by releasing large amounts of methane into the atmosphere," said Vasilii Petrenko, a postdoctoral fellow at University of Colorado, Boulder, who led the analysis while a graduate student at Scripps.

The results appear in April 24 editions of the journal Science.

Scientists had long been concerned about the potential for present-day climate change to cause a thawing of Arctic permafrost and a warming of ocean waters great enough to trigger a huge release of methane that would send planetary warming into overdrive. Vast amounts of methane are sequestered in solid form, known as methane clathrate, in seafloor deposits and in permafrost. Cold temperatures and the intense pressure of the deep ocean stabilize the methane clathrate masses and keep methane from entering the atmosphere. Scientists have estimated that a melting of only 10 percent of the world's clathrate deposits would create a greenhouse effect equal to a tenfold increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

For comparison, the warming trend observed in the last century has taken place with only a 30 percent increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide.The research team, overseen by Scripps geoscientist and study co-author Jeff Severinghaus, collected what may be the largest ice samples ever for a climate change study. The researchers cut away 15 tons of ice from a site called Pakitsoq at the western margin of the Greenland ice sheet to collect the ancient air trapped within. Methane exists in low concentrations in this air and only a trillionth of any given amount contains the carbon-14 isotope that the researchers needed to perform the analysis. Levels of carbon-14, which has a half-life of 5,730 years, were too high in the methane to have come from clathrates, the researchers concluded.

Geoscientists Vas Petrenko and Jeff Severinghaus celebrated the acquisition of uncontaminated methane samples during field research at the Greenland ice sheet. The two helped determine that a burst of atmospheric methane 11,600 years ago was most likely caused by expansion of wetlands.

"This study is important because it confirms that wetlands and moisture availability change dramatically along with abrupt climate change," said Severinghaus. "This highlights in a general way the fact that the largest impacts of future climate change may be on water resources and drought, rather than temperature per se."The burst of methane took place immediately after an abrupt transition between climatic periods known as the Younger Dryas and Preboreal. During this event, temperatures in Greenland rose 10° C (18° F) in 20 years. Methane levels over 150 years rose about 50 percent, from 500 parts per billion in air to 750 parts per billion.

In addition to Petrenko and Severinghaus, researchers from the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Oregon State University, the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, the Technical University of Denmark and the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation in Australia contributed to the report. The work was supported by grants from the National Science Foundation, the Packard Foundation, the American Chemical Society, the ANSTO Cosmogenic Climate Archives of the Southern Hemisphere project and the New Zealand Foundation of Science and Technology.

This may seem like good news, and possibly it is (let's hope so!). However, this article was written last April, based on research conducted a year previously. The article describing the Arctic seafloor methane releases just came out a few days ago. The researchers in Greenland from the Scripps Institute of Oceanography may not be aware of these latest findings. Massive surveying of the Arctic seafloor needs to be undertaken A.S.A.P., to ascertain if these methane releases are very widespread, and if they are increasing. As well as to measure how much, if any, is making it into the atmosphere.

Bad news all around. The industrialised nations are all dragging their feet about implementing any significant emission reduction plans, primarily due to extreme pressure from the fossil fuel and transportation industries. Who fund researchers and advertising campaigns to muddy the waters, so that the public and policy-makers will not feel that climate change is a pressing issue.

It now looks like it is too late to prevent extreme events such as sea level rises that will affect low-lying countries, droughts, and all the other effects of global warming (increasing wildfire severity, stronger tropical storms, increased flooding), SINCE THE POSITIVE FEEDBACK MECHANISMS ARE STARTING.

The only hope now is that once more people and politicians are directly affected, real attempts to solve the problem can be undertaken. Will it be too late?

Cheers.