IN A TIME OF UNIVERSAL DECEIT...TELLING THE TRUTH BECOMES A REVOLUTIONARY ACT

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wicked of men will do the most wicked of things for the greatest good of everyone." John Maynard Keynes

" Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital; that, in fact, capital is the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital and deserves much the higher consideration" Abraham Lincoln

Monday, August 20, 2012

HOW CLOSE ARE WE NOW? (II) [or] THE VALUE OF NOTHING

Much has been written and shared here at the Alaska Progressive Review, since our founding in 2008, over the US's increasing corporate control of it's government and continuing "right-ward drift" toward overt fascism, which in the classic definition, is the merger of corporate interests with the state, maintained by force of arms. Which it must be, as increasing poverty, desperation, and environmental degradation result from such a system.


Our first "HOW CLOSE ARE WE NOW" post,
written in 8/2010, described how global warming climate "tipping points", beyond which positive feedbacks accelerate the process, were/are being approached. This "HOW CLOSE ARE WE NOW" post, continues in that vein, but deals with the US's approaching fascism instead.
The latest step in this trend, undertaken by the Republican Party, is the decision to include "tea-party" conservative Congressman Paul Ryan (R-WI) as Mitt Romney's vice presidential running mate. Rep. Ryan has gained notoriety over the past few years by putting forth budgetary proposals to alter and radically diminish Social Security and Medicare, under the auspices of fiscal restraint, whilst still maintaining, and increasing the monstrous, and immoral US military outlays, which are greater than the next 17 nations' combined. Further, he advocates privatising as many federal governmental duties and programs as possible, and rolling back regulations protecting the environment, food/drug safety, and labour rights, across the board.

Our favourite of the many articles we have read about the Ryan choice came from Rolling Stone magazine, a few days ago. Give it a read, we really enjoyed it.

Tom Morello: 'Paul Ryan Is the Embodiment of the Machine Our Music Rages Against'

Rage Against the Machine's guitarist blasts Romney's VP pick and unlikely Rage fan

Tom Morello and Vice Presidential Candidate Paul Ryan
Tim Mosenfelder/Getty Images; Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call
August 16, 2012 6:44 PM ET
Last week, Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan, the Republican architect of Congress's radical right-wing budget plan, as his running mate. Ryan has previously cited Rage Against the Machine as one of his favorite bands. Rage guitarist Tom Morello responds in this exclusive op-ed.

Paul Ryan's love of Rage Against the Machine is amusing, because he is the embodiment of the machine that our music has been raging against for two decades. Charles Manson loved the Beatles but didn't understand them. Governor Chris Christie loves Bruce Springsteen but doesn't understand him. And Paul Ryan is clueless about his favorite band, Rage Against the Machine.

Ryan claims that he likes Rage's sound, but not the lyrics. Well, I don't care for Paul Ryan's sound or his lyrics. He can like whatever bands he wants, but his guiding vision of shifting revenue more radically to the one percent is antithetical to the message of Rage.

I wonder what Ryan's favorite Rage song is? Is it the one where we condemn the genocide of Native Americans? The one lambasting American imperialism? Our cover of "F..k the Police"? Or is it the one where we call on the people to seize the means of production? So many excellent choices to jam out to at Young Republican meetings!

Don't mistake me, I clearly see that Ryan has a whole lotta "rage" in him: A rage against women, a rage against immigrants, a rage against workers, a rage against gays, a rage against the poor, a rage against the environment. Basically the only thing he's not raging against is the privileged elite he's groveling in front of for campaign contributions.

You see, the super rich must rationalize having more than they could ever spend while millions of children in the U.S. go to bed hungry every night. So, when they look themselves in the mirror, they convince themselves that "Those people are undeserving. They're . . . lesser." Some of these guys on the extreme right are more cynical than Paul Ryan, but he seems to really believe in this stuff. This unbridled rage against those who have the least is a cornerstone of the Romney-Ryan ticket.

But Rage's music affects people in different ways. Some tune out what the band stands for and concentrate on the moshing and throwing elbows in the pit. For others, Rage has changed their minds and their lives. Many activists around the world, including organizers of the global occupy movement, were radicalized by Rage Against the Machine and work tirelessly for a more humane and just planet. Perhaps Paul Ryan was moshing when he should have been listening.

My hope is that maybe Paul Ryan is a mole. Maybe Rage did plant some sensible ideas in this extreme fringe right wing nut job. Maybe if elected, he'll pardon Leonard Peltier. Maybe he'll throw U.S. military support behind the Zapatistas. Maybe he'll fill Guantanamo Bay with the corporate criminals that are funding his campaign – and then torture them with Rage music 24/7. That's one possibility. But I'm not betting on it.

Most informed commentators, even in the "corporate media", view the GOP's choice of Ryan as Romney's running-mate as political suicide, practically guaranteeing the re-election of President Barack Obama. We agree with this, at face value, but there is much more to the story. We here at the Alaska Progressive Review, as well as many other progressive voices, view Ryan's choice as deliberate by the GOP and "powers that be" (corporatocracy, military-industrial complex, financial industry, etc...) to continue shifting the political discourse in the corporate media ever further rightward, often through distortions and outright lying. To then make such currently unpalatable ideas like altering and essentially eliminating Social Security and Medicare acceptable to a greater percent of the electorate. Making it easier for even Democratic politicians, who for the most part (with just a few exceptions) support the same policies, but can't be seen as doing so, at least, not yet.

For instance, who did President Obama choose as financial advisors for his new administration in 2008? The same Wall Street criminals who with their unrestrained greed, nearly destroyed the global economic system, and who today, are still operating freely. And how many hundreds of billions of dollars went to prop up the unhealthy "too big to fail" financial institutions that led to our current recession? Have there been any federally-funded jobs programmes, to provide gainful, much-needed employment to the millions of people left unemployed since the recession began in 2006/07? No? Then there all the other legacies of the "evil" Bush administrations that the current Democratic administration have continued, and even expanded upon.

The following article summarises these points very well, and is highly worth reading. From our viewpoint, we still cannot wrap our heads around how these politicians sleep at night. Of the many destructive policies currently undertaken, a good example is the use of unmanned drones to bomb and kill "terrorists" in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Yemen. This always results in the deaths of many un-related and "innocent" civilians, women and children often. And is a violation of the national sovereignties of these countries, as well as a violation of international law.

It has been our contention here at the APR for some time now, that supporting politicians from either of the two main parties will not alter the fascistic drift in this (and many other) countries. Sure the Democratic politicians, generally speaking, are not trying to return the US culturally back to the 1950s, or earlier, in a culture war. But will that be as important to you when you are unemployed and potentially starving, when even food stamps, and the most basic elements of the social safety net, are cut or eliminated?

Delusions and Disappointments

Meet Barack Obama

by ROB URIE
Mitt Romney’s Vice Presidential pick, Paul Ryan, as with himself, is an uninformed opportunist who was born into wealth and privilege and whose proposed policies aim to perpetuate that privilege at the expense of the rest of the population with whom he nominally shares a national identity. Barack Obama is a cynical opportunist who serves the interests of wealth and privilege and whose policies more effectively promote those interests than Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan could ever hope to. Those circling the wagons to get Mr. Obama re-elected should spend a bit of time getting to know their guy.

At the highest level Mr. Obama codified, through both continuation of, and failure to prosecute, the worst of the Bush / Cheney administration’s war crimes, domestic crimes, civil intrusions and economic policies. When Mr. Obama entered office he had the opportunity to repudiate these crimes and restore the illusion that America has ever been a civilized nation. America’s global torture prisons have been moved out of sight but not out of fact (link). The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq remain illegal wars of aggression undertaken to boost the fortunes of multi-national oil companies and the slaughter-for-profit military industry.
The war in Afghanistan has been expanded under Mr. Obama and the war in Iraq was only ended against his wishes by Bush era treaties. And U.S. foreign policy remains the preeminent force of repression and unjust order overseas.
 Mr. Obama’s recently disclosed ‘kill lists’ (link) suggest an unhinged monarch, fully divorced from legal accountability and history, carrying out vendettas against unproven enemies with fevered impunity (if he doesn’t have to show evidence, he doesn’t have to have evidence). With Americans now openly subject to murder at the whim of whoever occupies the Oval Office, the long, inglorious history of domestic power politics carried out through strategic assassination finds a home on our shores. (One need only recall the Bush / Cheney hilarity at putting Ted Kennedy and other prominent Democrats on lists of suspected terrorists used by airlines to imagine where this abuse of power can lead).

Mr. Obama’s signature achievement while in office, his ‘health care reform,’ the ACA (Affordable Care Act), is a Republican plan developed by the right-wing Heritage Foundation and first passed in Massachusetts by Mitt Romney. The plan forces citizens to purchase a defective product from private insurance companies who profit by denying health care to people who need it. The program’s ‘insurance exchanges’ leave individuals to select among inadequate policies to buy protection against future maladies of which they have no foreknowledge. Recourse for health care denied is appeal to under funded, understaffed state insurance commissions that have long histories shielding insurance companies from having to pay legitimate claims.

When Mr. Obama took office the nation was in the throes of an economic meltdown and financial collapse of bi-partisan origins. Mr. Obama rewarded the most culpable of the policy malefactors with top jobs covering up the mess that they had created. Larry Summers and Timothy Geithner set about rendering the right-wing fantasy of corrupt, incompetent government fact by stuffing the housing agencies full of bank detritus. The Federal Reserve set about restoring the fortunes of the sliver of Americans who own financial assets through several trillion dollars of monetary stimulus while adequate fiscal stimulus was deemed ‘unaffordable.’ Corrupt bankers were universally made whole while the rest of the economy was left to rot.

Early on Mr. Obama applied his own unique economic insight to argue that the explosion in unemployment in 2008 – 2009, coincident with the worst economic downturn in modern history, was due to ‘productivity gains,’ (link) and that nothing could be done to help the unemployed. (Even if productivity gains had been behind the decline in employment, which wasn’t the case, Mr. Obama could have revived the nation’s public sphere—teachers, doctors, emergency responders, public works workers, etc. to put people to work, but he chose not to). After passing a tax-cut laden economic stimulus program Mr. Obama appointed the corporate ‘leaders’ responsible for several decades of jobs outsourcing to his ‘jobs’ council. Four years on fully twenty million Americans remain unemployed or underemployed, with no effort to help them in the works.

In his effort to save particular culpable bankers while leaving the banking system corrupt, fragile, predatory and dysfunctional, Mr. Obama spared the victims of banker malfeasance no inconvenience, misdirection, unnecessary effort or cost. As part of the bank ‘bailouts’ Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner developed an entire program (HAMP– Home Affordable Modification Program) (link) to intentionally dupe hundreds of thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure into wasting a year or more of their lives ‘negotiating’ with banks that had no intention of modifying mortgages. The result was to inflict economic, legal and moral harm onto already distressed citizens solely to benefit the banks. That Mr. Geithner could have accomplished the same goal by fiat without torturing the already victimized citizenry illustrates what utter contempt he and Mr. Obama have for the American people.

A short while later Mr. Obama ‘negotiated’ a mortgage settlement that gave the banks blanket retroactive immunity for illegally foreclosing on several million homeowners using fraudulent, forged and backdated documents in foreclosure proceedings. The deal, under which the banks paid a $25 billion ‘fine’ with other bailout funds, removed any pretense that the banks needed a legal right–past, present or future, to illicitly take homes from the citizenry at will. The hyped ‘investigation’ that was to follow into massive mortgage industry malfeasance is a poorly funded smokescreen with the twin goals of providing Mr. Obama with a faux-populist patina in an election year while preventing any real investigation from taking place.

After several decades of the Washington political establishment opportunistically trotting out the ‘budget deficit’ canard in the lull between launching expensive wars for the benefit of their corporate benefactors, creating expensive giveaways to connected industries (Pharma) and enacting exorbitant tax cuts for the ascendant plutocracy, Barack Obama upped the ante by laying Social Security and Medicare on the table to be sacrificed without even the pretense of having been forced to do so. The only likely reason why he didn’t beat Paul Ryan to the punch in trying to privatize Social Security, as Bill Clinton had wanted to do, is that the matter polled poorly following George W. Bush’s bungling of the matter.
 
To set the public up for his ‘budget crisis’ claptrap Mr. Obama pulled ‘a Clinton’ by appointing a deficit commission stacked with deficit hawks that included none other than Mr. Clinton’s old ‘commission’ standby, right-wing hack and inheritance baby Erskine Bowles, to play the part of ‘Democrat concerned about the deficit.’ Readers may remember Mr. Bowles as Mr. Clinton’s Chief of Staff when he appointed the earlier deficit commission that first recommended privatizing Social Security. Unable to find the consensus needed to put forward a proposal in the name of the commission, Mr. Bowles joined fellow despiser of social spending Alan Simpson to write a faux report to give Mr. Obama cover to cut Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid in his second term should he be re-elected.

The environmental catastrophe of the British Petroleum gulf oil spill found Mr. Obama missing in action in the crucial early weeks, claiming that the government of the United States was impotent to contain the damage (or force BP to contain the damage) for several more weeks, and physically preventing reporters from reporting the damage caused by the spill in final weeks. Mr. Obama allowed British Petroleum to exponentially increase the environmental damage of the spill by illegally disposing of 1.84 million gallons of toxic waste (link) under the guise of ‘dispersing’ the spilt oil. As this was taking place Mr. Obama acted as a public relations advocate for British Petroleum and once the spill was ‘contained’ used government resources to cover up evidence of the crime.
 Following this abrogation of duty Mr. Obama scammed gullible environmentalists by temporarily halting construction of the environmental end-times northern tar sands pipeline while moving forward with the southern pipeline. There is little rationale for continuing the southern pipeline unless the northern pipeline is to be built following the presidential election. The totality of this project will exponentially increase the greenhouse gases being put into the atmosphere at a time when global warming is unambiguously in evidence.
 
In every dimension as president Barack Obama has proven himself a loyal servant of the global ruling class—bankers, corporate CEOs and oil and gas industry executives, against the rest of humanity. And through his faux-populist rhetoric and crude-materialist presence (black Democrat) he has been able to promote ruling class interests more effectively than conspicuous aristocrats like Mitt Romney could hope to. More to the point, as a trained technocrat, Mr. Obama can avoid the overreach of crude ideologues like Paul Ryan by knowing exactly who his benefactors are. (Mr. Ryan would hit a brick wall thirty seconds into trying to cut the government programs that the ruling class feeds off of. Mr. Obama will stick to de-funding only those who lack social power).

Finally, my condolences to Mr. Obama’s supporters on the coming disappointments should he be re-elected. Sure Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan would be ‘worse.’ But should Mr. Romney win there would be less delusion around whose interests any president will serve. The ruling class declared war on the rest of us forty years ago. Mitt Romney clearly represents the ruling class. Mr. Obama does the same with less evident intent.
Rob Urie is an artist and political economist in New York.

What it really comes down to, is do we want a government in the US that reflects and governs sociopathically, supporting greed and militarism? Run by people who put a price on everything, but value nothing (like human life, human solidarity, environmental health)? Or do we want one that puts the needs of human life (food/shelter/medical care/access to gainful employment) and the maintenance and protection of the environment for current and future generations above corporate profit? We must use alternative media sources to gain the accurate information we need, to effect positive changes and provide a hopeful future. Cheers.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

DAYS OF FUTURE PRESENT - US HEAT/DROUGHT 2012 IN PERSPECTIVE

It's become increasingly clear in the arena of global warming research, that warming effects are occurring faster, sooner, and stronger, than most climate change modeling forecasts. In fact, the current situation in the continental US has us here at the APR seriously questioning, if we have reached the "tipping points" climatically now, in which "positive feedbacks" accelerate warming. Which is not known, how, or to what extent it will progress before leveling off.
The unprecedented, in many areas, of well above-average temperatures continues in much of the Central and Eastern US.
And the ratio of newly set (in short defined periods) high-temperature records to low-temperature records, which if there were no warming, would be even, has shot up to 9:1 since January for the continental US (lower 48). Take a look at the these articles, they all offer excellent and vital information. It is alot of material, but we feel they all present the latest, and trusted (by the A.P.R) scientific information on the state of the global climate. Which the corporate/commercial media isn't really reporting in a serious way (yet). This first one is from the folks at Climate Central, which always provides the best, latest, scientific information on global warming. They are a group of scientists and journalists with ties to all the major research institutions across the World.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/more-record-highs-during-2012-so-far-than-all-of-2011-14768/

High Times: More 2012 Record Highs than All of Last Year

By

Thanks to a record warm January-to-June period and intense, long-lasting heat waves during March, June, and July, the U.S. has passed an ominous milestone: with about five months remaining in the year, there have already been more record daily high temperatures set or tied so far this year than were set or tied during all of 2011. And 2011 had the second-warmest summer on record for the lower 48 states.

According to Guy Walton of The Weather Channel, who compiles temperature record statistics using data from the National Climatic Data Center, there were 26,674 daily record highs broken or tied during 2011, and through August 5 there were 27,042 records broken or tied this year. The March and July heat waves clearly gave 2012 the edge over last year. During March alone, 7,755 daily records were set or tied, and 4,420 records were broken or tied during July. (You can track temperature records using Climate Central’s Record Tracker.)
Graphic showing how record daily highs have outnumbered record daily lows during recent decades, as the average climate has warmed during the period. Click on image for a larger version.
Credit: Climate Central.
That this year has already eclipsed the number of records set during 2011 is especially remarkable because 2011 was a very warm year, during which Oklahoma set the record for the all-time warmest average summer temperature of any state in the country, with Texas coming in a close second thanks to the drought conditions and heat waves there. Both states have been baking under searing heat once again this summer. Oklahoma City reached 112°F on July 1 and 2, and 113°F on the 3rd, which tied the all-time high temperature record for that location. Every day from July 17 through August 4 reached or exceeded 100°F in Oklahoma City, and the heat and drought have led to an outbreak of wildfires across the state.

While the final four months of the year may not seem like they would add much to the record totals, during 2010, there were 8,636 record daily highs set or tied from September through the end of December, and in 2011 the total was 5,800.
March 2012 was an especially warm month in the lower 48 states, as this map of temperature departures from average shows. Click on image for a larger version.
Credit: High Plains Regional Climate Center.

Last year, record daily high temperatures outnumbered record daily lows by a ratio of about 3-to-1. This year, that ratio is even more lopsided, favoring high-temperature records by a ratio of about 10-to-1.

Climate research indicates that over longer timescales, these ratios are increasingly favoring warm records as well. A study published in 2009 found that rather than a 1-to-1 ratio, as would be expected if the climate were not warming, the ratio was closer to 2-to-1 in favor of warm temperature records during the past decade (2000-2009). This finding cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone, the study found, and is instead consistent with global warming.

The study used computer models to project how the records ratios might shift in future decades as the amount of greenhouse gases in the air continues to increase. The results showed that the ratio of daily record highs to daily record lows in the lower 48 states could soar to 20-to-1 by mid-century, and 50-to-1 by 2100.
We thought this article by Prof. Michael T. Klare, from Amherst University, gave a good perspective on how the current 2012 US Heat/Drought will likely affect the rest of the World in the next year. And serve as a model for conditions every year, 30-40 years hence.

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/08/07-2

The Coming Hunger Wars: Heat, Drought, Rising Food Costs, and Global Unrest
The Great Drought of 2012 has yet to come to an end, but we already know that its consequences will be severe. With more than one-half of America’s counties designated as drought disaster areas, the 2012 harvest of corn, soybeans, and other food staples is guaranteed to fall far short of predictions. This, in turn, will boost food prices domestically and abroad, causing increased misery for farmers and low-income Americans and far greater hardship for poor people in countries that rely on imported U.S. grains.

This, however, is just the beginning of the likely consequences: if history is any guide, rising food prices of this sort will also lead to widespread social unrest and violent conflict.


Food -- affordable food -- is essential to human survival and well-being. Take that away, and people become anxious, desperate, and angry. In the United States, food represents only about 13% of the average household budget, a relatively small share, so a boost in food prices in 2013 will probably not prove overly taxing for most middle- and upper-income families. It could, however, produce considerable hardship for poor and unemployed Americans with limited resources. “You are talking about a real bite out of family budgets,” commented Ernie Gross, an agricultural economist at Omaha’s Creighton University. This could add to the discontent already evident in depressed and high-unemployment areas, perhaps prompting an intensified backlash against incumbent politicians and other forms of dissent and unrest.


It is in the international arena, however, that the Great Drought is likely to have its most devastating effects. Because so many nations depend on grain imports from the U.S. to supplement their own harvests, and because intense drought and floods are damaging crops elsewhere as well, food supplies are expected to shrink and prices to rise across the planet. “What happens to the U.S. supply has immense impact around the world,” says Robert Thompson, a food expert at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. As the crops most affected by the drought, corn and soybeans, disappear from world markets, he noted, the price of all grains, including wheat, is likely to soar, causing immense hardship to those who already have trouble affording enough food to feed their families.

The Hunger Games, 2007-2011


What happens next is, of course, impossible to predict, but if the recent past is any guide, it could turn ugly. In 2007-2008, when rice, corn, and wheat experienced prices hikes of 100% or more, sharply higher prices -- especially for bread -- sparked “food riots” in more than two dozen countries, including Bangladesh, Cameroon, Egypt, Haiti, Indonesia, Senegal, and Yemen. In Haiti, the rioting became so violent and public confidence in the government’s ability to address the problem dropped so precipitously that the Haitian Senate voted to oust the country’s prime minister, Jacques-Édouard Alexis. In other countries, angry protestors clashed with army and police forces, leaving scores dead.

Those price increases of 2007-2008 were largely attributed to the soaring cost of oil, which made food production more expensive. (Oil’s use is widespread in farming operations, irrigation, food delivery, and pesticide manufacture.) At the same time, increasing amounts of cropland worldwide were being diverted from food crops to the cultivation of plants used in making biofuels.

The next price spike in 2010-11 was, however, closely associated with climate change. An intense drought gripped much of eastern Russia during the summer of 2010, reducing the wheat harvest in that breadbasket region by one-fifth and prompting Moscow to ban all wheat exports. Drought also hurt China’s grain harvest, while intense flooding destroyed much of Australia’s wheat crop. Together with other extreme-weather-related effects, these disasters sent wheat prices soaring by more than 50% and the price of most food staples by 32%.
Once again, a surge in food prices resulted in widespread social unrest, this time concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East. The earliest protests arose over the cost of staples in Algeria and then Tunisia, where -- no coincidence -- the precipitating event was a young food vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, setting himself on fire to protest government harassment. Anger over rising food and fuel prices combined with long-simmering resentments about government repression and corruption sparked what became known as the Arab Spring. The rising cost of basic staples, especially a loaf of bread, was also a cause of unrest in Egypt, Jordan, and Sudan. Other factors, notably anger at entrenched autocratic regimes, may have proved more powerful in those places, but as the author of Tropic of Chaos, Christian Parenti, wrote, “The initial trouble was traceable, at least in part, to the price of that loaf of bread.”

As for the current drought, analysts are already warning of instability in Africa, where corn is a major staple, and of increased popular unrest in China, where food prices are expected to rise at a time of growing hardship for that country’s vast pool of low-income, migratory workers and poor peasants. Higher food prices in the U.S. and China could also lead to reduced consumer spending on other goods, further contributing to the slowdown in the global economy and producing yet more worldwide misery, with unpredictable social consequences.

The Hunger Games, 2012-??

If this was just one bad harvest, occurring in only one country, the world would undoubtedly absorb the ensuing hardship and expect to bounce back in the years to come. Unfortunately, it’s becoming evident that the Great Drought of 2012 is not a one-off event in a single heartland nation, but rather an inevitable consequence of global warming which is only going to intensify. As a result, we can expect not just more bad years of extreme heat, but worse years, hotter and more often, and not just in the United States, but globally for the indefinite future.

Until recently, most scientists were reluctant to blame particular storms or droughts on global warming. Now, however, a growing number of scientists believe that such links can be demonstrated in certain cases. In one recent study focused on extreme weather events in 2011, for instance, climate specialists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Great Britain’s National Weather Service concluded that human-induced climate change has made intense heat waves of the kind experienced in Texas in 2011 more likely than ever before. Published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, it reported that global warming had ensured that the incidence of that Texas heat wave was 20 times more likely than it would have been in 1960; similarly, abnormally warm temperatures like those experienced in Britain last November were said to be 62 times as likely because of global warming.

It is still too early to apply the methodology used by these scientists to calculating the effect of global warming on the heat waves of 2012, which are proving to be far more severe, but we can assume the level of correlation will be high. And what can we expect in the future, as the warming gains momentum?

When we think about climate change (if we think about it at all), we envision rising temperatures, prolonged droughts, freakish storms, hellish wildfires, and rising sea levels. Among other things, this will result in damaged infrastructure and diminished food supplies. These are, of course,
 manifestations of warming in the physical world, not the social world we all inhabit and rely on for so many aspects of our daily well-being and survival. The purely physical effects of climate change will, no doubt, prove catastrophic. But the social effects including, somewhere down the line, food riots, mass starvation, state collapse, mass migrations, and conflicts of every sort, up to and including full-scale war, could prove even more disruptive and deadly.
In her immensely successful young-adult novel The Hunger Games (and the movie that followed), Suzanne Collins riveted millions with a portrait of a dystopian, resource-scarce, post-apocalyptic future where once-rebellious “districts” in an impoverished North America must supply two teenagers each year for a series of televised gladiatorial games that end in death for all but one of the youthful contestants. These “hunger games” are intended as recompense for the damage inflicted on the victorious capitol of Panem by the rebellious districts during an insurrection. Without specifically mentioning global warming, Collins makes it clear that climate change was significantly responsible for the hunger that shadows the North American continent in this future era. Hence, as the gladiatorial contestants are about to be selected, the mayor of District 12’s principal city describes “the disasters, the droughts, the storms, the fires, the encroaching seas that swallowed up so much of the land [and] the brutal war for what little sustenance remained.”

In this, Collins was prescient, even if her specific vision of the violence on which such a world might be organized is fantasy. While we may never see her version of those hunger games, do not doubt that some version of them will come into existence -- that, in fact, hunger wars of many sorts will fill our future. These could include any combination or permutation of the deadly riots that led to the 2008 collapse of Haiti’s government, the pitched battles between massed protesters and security forces that engulfed parts of Cairo as the Arab Spring developed, the ethnic struggles over disputed croplands and water sources that have made Darfur a recurring headline of horror in our world, or the inequitable distribution of agricultural land that continues to fuel the insurgency of the Maoist-inspired Naxalites of India.

Combine such conflicts with another likelihood: that persistent drought and hunger will force millions of people to abandon their traditional lands and flee to the squalor of shantytowns and expanding slums surrounding large cities, sparking hostility from those already living there. One such eruption, with grisly results, occurred in Johannesburg’s shantytowns in 2008 when desperately poor and hungry migrants from Malawi and Zimbabwe were set upon, beaten, and in some cases burned to death by poor South Africans. One terrified Zimbabwean, cowering in a police station from the raging mobs, said she fled her country because “there is no work and no food.” And count on something else: millions more in the coming decades, pressed by disasters ranging from drought and flood to rising sea levels, will try to migrate to other countries, provoking even greater hostility. And that hardly begins to exhaust the possibilities that lie in our hunger-games future.

At this point, the focus is understandably on the immediate consequences of the still ongoing Great Drought: dying crops, shrunken harvests, and rising food prices. But keep an eye out for the social and political effects that undoubtedly won’t begin to show up here or globally until later this year or 2013. Better than any academic study, these will offer us a hint of what we can expect in the coming decades from a hunger-games world of rising temperatures, persistent droughts, recurring food shortages, and billions of famished, desperate people.

And now, the latest scientific research, offered from the folks at NASA, who have been studying the Earth's ecosystems globally for the past 40 years. Which is saying that the current US (lower 48, not AK, we've had a cool, cloudy summer...) heat/drought of 2012 can be scientifically (through statistical analysis) attributed to anthropogenic (human-caused) global warming. And that this year is a good model to represent average conditions several decades hence. We won't display the article for brevity's sake, but we strongly encourage you to give it a look.
http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/warming-links.html

However, the US Government is hopefully beginning to wake up to the seriousness of the situation, as this speech from a few days ago by Senate Majorite Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) would suggest.

http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/08/07/653371/senator-harry-reid-opens-clean-energy-summit-with-a-bold-speech-on-climate-change-we-must-act-today/?mobile=nc

Senator Harry Reid Opens Clean Energy Summit With a Bold Speech on Climate Change: 'We Must Act Today'
by Stephen Lacey

It appears that advocates of clean energy are getting the message: If you want to talk about clean energy in a political context, you must talk about the environmental imperative.

In a speech opening up this year’s 5th National Clean Energy Summit in Las Vegas, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid gave one of the most powerful public speeches on climate that any national policymaker has made in years.

Reid joins Senators Al Franken, John Kerry, Bernie Sanders, and Sheldon Whitehouse, all of whom have made excellent climate speeches on the Senate floor in the last year. However, today’s speech was done in a much more prominent public forum in front of top journalists, regulatory officials, and policymakers.

Here’s the climate portion of the speech, which was used to set up the pressing need to develop more renewable energy and efficiency:
"Twenty-five years ago, President George H.W. Bush promised to use the “White House effect” to combat the “greenhouse effect.” Yet a quarter century later, too many elected officials in Washington are still calling climate change a liberal hoax. They falsely claim scientists are still debating whether carbon pollution is warming the planet.
Of course, if those skeptics had taken a stroll along the Potomac River on a 70-degree day this February, they would have seen cherry trees blossoming earlier than at any time since they were planted 100 years ago. Washington experienced its warmest spring since record keeping began in 1895.

And back in the skeptics’ home states, the harbingers of a changing climate are just as clear as those delicate February blossoms – and infinitely more perilous.
This year alone, the United States has seen unparalleled extreme weather events – events scientists say are exactly what is expected as the earth’s climate changes.
The Midwest is experiencing its most crushing drought in more than half a century – or maybe ever. Presently, disasters have been declared in the majority of U.S. counties. More than half the country is experiencing drought, and seventy-five percent of the nation is abnormally dry this year.
          Corn crops are withering and livestock are dying – or going to slaughter early – as heat
          waves parch America’s breadbasket, breaking records set during the Woody Guthrie Dust
          Bowl years.
Now ravaging wildfires have replaced the dust storms of the 1930′s. Devastating fires have swept New Mexico, Idaho, Colorado, Nevada and other parts of the Mountain West, destroying hundreds of homes and burning millions of trees. These fires are fed in part by vast areas of dead forest ravaged by beetles and other pests that now survive through warmer winters.
On the East Coast, extreme thunderstorms and high winds called “derechos” – literally meaning straight-line storms – have eliminated power for 4.3 million customers in 10 states in the mid-Atlantic region. One 38-year veteran of the utility industry told the New York Times this: “We’ve got the ‘storm of the century’ every year now.” At the height of this storm – while the power was out and the air conditioning wasn’t working – the East Coast experienced record high temperatures.

Down south, the Mississippi River is nearly dry in various places, with shipping barges operating in only 5 feet of water. Just Friday, barges were grounded because the water level was so low. And New Orleans’ water supply is now being threatened by salt water moving up the Mississippi due to extremely low water.

But while record drought has struck many parts of the United States, torrential rains have poured down in others. In June, the fourth tropical storm of the hurricane season – a season which typically begins in the fall – dropped 20 inches of rain on Florida.
And our nation’s infrastructure is literally falling apart because it wasn’t designed to withstand these conditions. Runways are melting, trapping planes. Train tracks are bending, derailing subways. Highways are cracking, buckling and breaking open. The water used to cool power plants – including nuclear power plants – has either run dry or reached dangerously high temperatures.

And that’s just in the United States – just through the month of July.
          Arctic sea ice is also at its lowest point in recorded history.
This month, the massive ice sheet atop Greenland experienced sudden and almost uniform melting – a phenomenon not seen in the modern age.

This spring, rain fell unexpectedly in Mecca despite 109-degree temperatures. It was the hottest downpour in the planet’s recorded history.

The Amazon River Basin has experienced super-flooding – reaching record high levels due to long summer rains and greater than normal glacial melting.

Massive forest fires have swept Siberia.

Monsoons in Bangladesh left hundreds dead and nearly 7 million people homeless.
And last week more than 600 million people in India were without power. Late monsoons and record temperatures increased demand for electricity to irrigate crops and air condition homes, overloading the fragile power grid and causing the blackout.
Scientists say this is genesis – the beginning. The more extreme climate change gets, the more extreme the weather will get. In the words of one respected climate scientist: “This is what global warming looks like.”

Dozens of new reports from scientists around the globe link extreme weather to climate change. Not every flood or drought can be attributed to human-induced transformation of our planet’s weather patterns. But scientists report that these extreme events are dozens of times more likely because of those changes.

The seriousness of this problem is not lost on your average American. A large majority of people finally believe climate change is real, and that it is the cause of extreme weather. Yet despite having overwhelming evidence and public opinion on our side, deniers still exist, fueled and funded by dirty energy profits.

These people aren’t just on the other side of this debate. They’re on the other side of reality.

It’s time for us all – whether we’re leaders in Washington, members of the media, scientists, academics, environmentalists or utility industry executives – to stop acting like those who ignore the crisis or deny it exists entirely have a valid point of view. They don’t.
Virtually every respected, independent scientist in the world agrees the problem is real, and the time to act is now. Not tomorrow. Not a week from now. Not next month or next year. We must act today."
We certainly agree here at the Alaska Progressive Review with Senator Reid's assessment. And applaud his speech for giving us an accurate depiction of reality. The question is now, what is the US government going to do about it? Remember, it's not just the US that is now suffering adverse affects, as the climate system warms, but people all over the World.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19174538

It's time for all the governments of the World to come together honestly and look at what we are doing as societies to global ecosystems, and change what is necessary, if we are to provide a future as relatively stable as we have had, for future generations. Obviously there are strong forces with vested interests in keeping things as they are, the fossil-fuel industry, corpotocracy, etc... We like to think though now, with the information availability thanks to the internet, that the free flow of information will help the majority of humanity overcome these resisting forces peacefully. Cheers.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

US DROUGHT 2012 - Slow Motion Disaster

The drought/extended heatwave this year from the front range of the Rockies, east across the central and southern plains and Ohio Valley will soon prove to be as bad, or worse, than the greatest one since the "european" conquest 200+ years ago. This exceptional drought, which occurred from 1932-1936, was what brought us the term "dust-bowl", from the dust/windstorms which eroded the drought-stricken lands of topsoil in those drought years of the 1930s.
This historic map of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), percent of time in severe/extreme drought, tells the story. the western central and northern plains and parts of the intermountain-west, were locked in severe and extreme drought conditions 50 percent of the time, in the years 1934-39.

Failure of the corn crop is/will be occurring this year across most of this same area, and even further east, it seems likely. This will cause food prices to greatly increase during the next several months, and year, nationally, and internationally.
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/07/26-5

This will produce great, and unfortunate consequences throughout the World, which will be made even worse by rampant speculation in the commodities markets, which drive prices up much further than they would otherwise be, and hence, condemn many millions more globally to suffering and starvation.

The basic weather pattern causing this, which we'll discuss later, looks likely to continue for at least a few more weeks, if not longer. And which, some people think, is causing many people living in these areas to rethink their positions on global warming, which could have interesting consequences.

An excellent summation of this unfortunate and far-reaching slow-motion disaster comes from the folks at Climate Central, a great resource for the latest global warming research/description of current events.
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-heat-proves-relentless-in-central-states/
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/ongoing-coverage-of-historic-drought-in-us/
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2158
Extreme Heat Proves Relentless in Central States
While much of the country has had a brief respite from the extreme heat and humidity that has marked the summer of 2012, in the nation's heartland — including key agricultural areas from Nebraska to Illinois — the heat has proven relentless. When the temperature soared to 105°F at 3:00 pm central time, St. Louis tied its all-time record for the most days in a single year with high temperatures of 105°F or greater. The existing record of 10 such days was set in 1934.

High temperature forecast for Tuesday, July 24, showing the area of extreme heat in the central states. Click on the image for a larger version. Credit: NOAA.

Through July 21, St. Louis and Columbia, Mo., had each set a record for the warmest year-to-date, beating a record established in 1921. The National Weather Service said that by October, the records for the maximum number of days with a high temperature of 90°F or greater, and 95°F or greater, "will also likely be threatened at all three of our official climate locations."

Further west, it is possible that North Platte, Neb., will wind up with its second-longest streak of consecutive 100°F days, with nine such days if temperatures reach the century mark through Wednesday.

North Platte, which sits along I-80 in the western part of the state, had already seen 16 days this year with temperatures of 100°F or higher as of July 23, including 12 100-degree days in July alone. The all-time record is 29 such days, set during the Dust Bowl year of 1936. Omaha has had its fourth-longest streak of consecutive days with high temperatures of 95°F or greater, and has hit 100°F or higher five times this month. The high temperature on both July 22 and 23 was 105°F, which were record daily highs. Omaha normally averages just two 100-degree days during July.

During the July 17-to-23 period, 866 daily high temperature records were set or tied across the country, along with 716 warm overnight low temperature records. Of these, 14 of the high temperature records were monthly records, and eight were all-time high temperature records. So far this year, warm temperature records have been outpacing cold records by a ratio of about 7-to-1. The ratio is even more lopsided, at closer to 9-to-1, when looking only at record daily highs compared to record daily lows. (Track record-breaking temperatures using Climate Central's Record Tracker.)

In recent years there have been many more warm temperature records set or tied in the U.S. compared to cold temperature records, part of a longer-term trend. Credit: Climate Central.

As the climate has warmed during the past several decades, there has been a growing imbalance between record daily high temperatures in the contiguous U.S. and record daily lows. So in the coming decades, we may see more and more of these record-breaking temperatures in cities across the U.S. A study published in 2009 found that rather than a 1-to-1 ratio, as would be expected if the climate were not warming, the ratio has been closer to 2-to-1 in favor of warm temperature records during the past decade (2000-2009). This finding cannot be explained by natural climate variability alone, the study found, and is instead consistent with global warming.

The heat in the Central states is compounding drought concerns, as one of the worst droughts in U.S. history has intensified during recent weeks due to the combination of record warmth and well below-average rainfall.

Further north, though, some beneficial rain is falling in a zone from Minnesota through northern Illinois, Michigan and Ohio. A frontal boundary marking the dividing line between cooler and less humid air to the north, and the extreme heat to the south, has already sparked one round of severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. A long-lasting, fast-moving complex of thunderstorms producing widespread damaging winds (similar to but not quite meeting the official criteria of a "derecho") — tore through the Chicago area, knocking out power to as many as 175,000 people.

More severe weather is expected during the week, but most of the rain from these thunderstorms is likely to fall to the north of the areas most heavily affected by the drought.

The central/eastern US drought is not the only significant global-warming issue at hand currently, however.

Amplified warming and melting of the entire greenland ice sheet means surface meltwater will pool and eventually sink through large areas of it, lubricating the bases, with unknown consequences. Large meltwater pools have been identified in recent years in some areas of the ice sheet, which have been measured to flow down to the base rocks below the ice. What is not known at this time, is how much water it will take lubricating the bases of these massive glaciers/ice sheets, before large chunks of them break off and slide into the surrounding seas, which would then cause rapid global sea level rises of several feet, and for the bulk of the Greenland Ice Sheet, at least eight metres (27 ft).

This amplified melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been the basis for a few of our future projections of conditions decades hence across North America. The main point being that research has indicated that the last time atmospheric CO2 levels were as high as they are now, 390 ppm (from naturally occurring volcanism) 250,000 years b.p., sea levels were 6-9 metres higher! And we are projected to reach 500 ppm, in less than 40 years.

In addition, the summer arctic sea ice coverage, is once again at record low-levels, and getting thinner every year, heading toward summers in which no sea ice is left in the Arctic, within a decade or so, if not sooner. Which would be a strong "positive feedback" mechanism, enhancing warming throughout the Arctic, and the rest of the World, as the darker sea surface absorbs tremendous amounts of heat energy from the sun, during the summer, instead of the sea ice, which reflects more than 80% of incoming solar radiation. Which in turn will cause larger areas of methane and CO2 to be released from thawing permafrost and shallow Arctic Ocean seabeds (especially north of the Eastern Siberian coastline).

So, given these extreme drought/heat waves that are occurring from the western great plains of the US lower 48, east into the Ohio Valley, what is the basic mechanism responsible for this?
The plot, above, is of the mean 500 mb heights for June 2012 across North America. A quick recap, meteorologists track weather systems at several levels in the atmosphere. The height at which the atmospheric pressure is a standard level, is proportionate to temperature. Lower heights at 500 mb (which is generally between 4850 and 6000 metres across the globe on any given day in winter/summer) mean a colder airmass, as cold air is heavier, and less dense, than warmer air, and hence occupies less physical volume/height. So when you hear the term "high pressure ridge", meteorologists are usually referring to higher 500 mb height values bulging poleward, moving warmer air north (or south in the southern hemisphere).
The plot above, is of the mean 500 mb heights for the 30 year period 1991-2011. 500 mb heights are 300-500 metres higher this June, than over the 30-year composite mean. A "higher-amplitude ridge" centered over the southwestern states has amplified north over the southern and western plains. Hence, this area of hot dry air, caused by large scale subsidence aloft of air pushed poleward from tropical convection (showers/thunderstorms) is further north and "sharper" than the average conditions over the past 30 years. Generally speaking, it is these "higher amplitude" jet stream flows that are bringing greater warmth further poleward, that are amplifying warming across the Arctic, as we've mentioned before.

At the same time, globally speaking, the "jet stream", which is the band of strong winds aloft that move low pressure systems that form due to the contrasts of polar vs. tropical/subtropical air, is moving further poleward, as the global atmosphere warms. Hence, stronger ridging that used to be say over the latitudes of 28-38N, and further to the west, over those latitudes in North America, are/will continue to expand poleward and amplify. This year, 2012, it looks like the jet stream over the southwest and central US has moved about 4-5 degrees northward, from the composite mean.

A more "highly amplified" jet stream has also had it's effects here in Alaska, as the above charts show. Here we can see that during the month of June (and July has been quite similar so far), a stronger and deeper area of low 500 mb heights has been present over the Gulf of Alaska, and lower 500 mb heights across the rest of the state.

In fact, so far this month in Anchorage, it's been the 2nd coldest in its 90 year period of record. Rainfall has been above average as well, but not to record levels. What has this meant for us here in South-Central Alaska?
Well, as here at just 1100 metres off the Crow Pass trail around Crystal Lake, our record snowfall of the past winter
is still in the process of melting, as of last week, and only 1/3 of the ice on Crystal Lake has gone out.
In addition, the majority of the days of this past June and July, have been cool and cloudy, and often, in our daily runs into the Chugach
Range, the cloud bases drop below 500 metres, with drizzle and light rain.













There was still alot of snow on the margins of the Raven Glacier, just on the other side of Crow Pass, this past week, so we will take our annual comparison pictures as scheduled the first week in September, to document the changes on this easily-accessible lower-elevation source-region (2000 metres) glacier.
And which we will continue to do, as long as we are able.

While it has been a cool and cloudy, often wet, summer so far in South-Central Alaska, we are not too worried. Because we know, as the climate continues to warm due to our uncontrolled emissions of CO2 and methane (CH4), even our cooler summers, will slowly warm, here in South-Central Alaska, as the basic jet stream flows continue their poleward progression. In fact, in 40 years, our summers overall here, will be somewhat warmer. But we do worry quite a bit about our winters, they are becoming more turbulent, and potentially hazardous in some ways. More heat energy available in winter from the warmer Pacific Ocean, and subtropical airmasses being pushed further north, and interacting with the cold Arctic air flowing out from the interior, are/will be fueling more frequent, stronger storms. Which already can be damaging around the Anchorage "Bowl".

There is no escaping our changing and warming climate, due to fossil fuel extraction/use, no matter where you live. Cheers.