IN A TIME OF UNIVERSAL DECEIT...TELLING THE TRUTH BECOMES A REVOLUTIONARY ACT

"Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wicked of men will do the most wicked of things for the greatest good of everyone." John Maynard Keynes

" Labor is prior to, and independent of, capital; that, in fact, capital is the fruit of labor, and could never have existed if labor had not first existed. Labor is the superior of capital and deserves much the higher consideration" Abraham Lincoln

Monday, August 1, 2011

ALGAL BLOOMING?/JUST TOO MUCH [and] THREE FIFTY-FUN

                                                  ALGAL BLOOMING?

It has to be admitted, your lead editor has always been drawn to aviation, even though my other interests and activities have always tended to be much more in the non-technical, natural, and sometimes esoteric, vein. As a child, I had models of all the fastest fighter planes in the US and World arsenals hanging from my bedroom ceiling, which I had just made. It was not their warfare capabilities that I was interested in, but their record-breaking performances. The first jets from 1945-52 could only go up to about 1120 kph (700 mph, less than sonic speed). Still, to think about that, at that time, it was truly amazing what was done with the technology of their day. Mach 2 aircraft, capable of traveling at twice sonic speed, or up to 2430+ kph (1520 mph), were developed in the mid to late 1950s, and were in widespread use throughout the Cold War nations by the early 1960s. I avidly read as a youth the stories of all the test pilots and astronauts, as they put themselves in great danger, and often died, in the development of the ever faster and higher-flying air and spacecraft.  I also always liked to keep up with the latest developments in commercial aviation, small planes for individuals, as well as what were/are the most "advanced" large passenger jets.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Boeing_787_first_flight.jpg

And I still, to this day, avidly follow the global aviation industry/arena, though more commercially, and less militarily.
Aviation as we know it today is a global enterprise, requiring global cooperation from all nations in air traffic management, weather forecasting, communications, and pilot training. And with modern jet travel, it enables more and more people to experience and interact with others from different cultures and backgrounds, which is what we need more and more of, to help foster a more globally cohesive culture. Which will help all the nations of the World more easily come together to help solve the global problems we are now facing, warming/climatic chaos, resource depletion, environmental collapse, overpopulation, etc...
Unfortunately of course, increased and cheaper air travel, while helping to maintain and build a more globally-cohesive culture, is also contributing significantly to the very problems it can help humanity to overcome.  
This article, above, gives an excellent summary of aviation's global climate change influence. We won't post all of it here, but thought the following sections of it were worthy of inclusion. We highly recommend you give the whole article a read, if you can though, it is very enlightening.
Aviation’s Contribution to Climate Change

First, how much aviation contributes to climate change is still open to debate. Several governmental and aviation industry organizations have been reporting a “less than 3 percent” number for quite some time ,while environmental groups, particularly in Europe, claim that the percentage is anywhere from 5 to 9 percent. In examining the claims and counterclaims concerning emissions of GHG, one has to be very careful about the language and the metrics used in determining the impact that any given industry will have on climate change.

Many reports and studies focus only on CO2; however, there are other gases and anthropogenic actions that exacerbate climate change. For example, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recently proposed regulations that would require major emitters of six “greenhouse gases” to report their emissions to the EPA on an annual basis. These six greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorochemicals (PFCs), and other fluorinated 20 gases (e.g., nitrogen trifluoride and hydrofluorinated ethers [HFEs]). It also should be kept in mind when discussing climate change, especially with respect to aviation, that water vapor is estimated to contribute anywhere from 36 to 72 percent of the greenhouse effect. This is important because the radiative forcing effect of cirrus cloud formation from the aircraft is a significant contributor to the greenhouse effect. As pointed out above, it is generally accepted that for aviation the GHGs of concern are CO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulfate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness.

GHG Impacts are Broader than CO2

The predominance of CO2 as the GHG of concern leads to another issue: measurement of GHG. Many reports state their findings in terms of “CO2e,” or CO2 equivalent. Carbon dioxide equivalency is a quantity that describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gas, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming potential (GWP) when measured over a specified time scale (generally, 100 years). For example, the generally accepted GWP for methane over 100 years is 25, and for nitrous oxide 298. This means that emissions of 1 million metric tons of methane and nitrous oxide, respectively, are equivalent to emissions of 25 and 298 million metric tons of carbon dioxide. This article will keep the convention of designating GHGs other than CO2 in terms of “CO2e.”
Most reports and studies begin with the groundbreaking work of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which in 1999 estimated that, based on earlier data, fuel combustion for aviation contributes approximately 2 percent to the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory, and if left unmitigated, this could grow to as much as 4 percent by 2050. Despite the age of the data, the 2 percent number has been used consistently throughout the first decade of the 21st century. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) in a 2006 press release relied on the IPCC report by stating that “[a]ir transport contributes a small part of global CO2 emissions – 2 percent” (IATA press release , 2nd Aviation Environment Summit). Even as recently as September 2009, the Transportation Research Circular of the Transportation Research Board fudges the issue by stating in the section about climate change and greenhouse gases that “fuel combustion for aviation contributes approximately 2 percent to the total anthropogenic CO2 emissions inventory.” What these estimates leave aside is the fact that CO2 emissions are only one facet of the greenhouse gas equation.
The aviation industry tried to correct this in its paper Aviation and Climate Change: The Views of Aviation Industry Stakeholders published in February 2009 by stating that “greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from aviation constitute only a very small part of total U.S. GHGs, less than 3 percent.” However, the report that the paper cites, the U.S. EPA’s Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2006 (April 15, 2008; 2008 EPA Inventory), only mentions emissions of CO2 in the discussion of its inventory of greenhouse gases in the creation of energy (2008 EPA Inventory, Chapter 3). Moreover, the EPA only examined the aviation sector’s combustion of fossil fuel and did not, for example, take into account the radiative forcing effect of cirrus cloud formation on climate change. When the EPA published its next inventory, Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2007 (March 2009; 2009 EPA Inventory), the contribution of aviation to carbon dioxide emissions increased. It estimated that when international fuels were included, domestic and international commercial, military, and general aviation flights represented about 3.4 percent of the total emissions of CO2 in the United States.

There is no question that the emission of CO2, and, for that matter, the combustion of fossil fuels, does not tell the whole story with respect to aviation. However, there are relatively few studies that focus solely on aviation and examine the effects of all GHGs and not just CO2. In 2005, Robert Sausen and a group of climate scientists published their article Aviation Radiative Forcing in 2000: An Update on IPCC (1999) (Sausen 2005). This article concluded that when NOx emissions, contrails and cirrus clouds are added into the mix, aviation’s impact on climate change is about 2 to 5 percent greater than that of CO2 alone worldwide. This would mean that aviation would have an impact on climate change in the range of 4 to 10 percent when all aspects of emissions of GHG and other radiative forcing factors are taken into account. These numbers were updated in a July 2009 article, Aviation and Global Climate Change in the 21st Century (Lee et al., 2009), which appeared in the periodical Atmospheric Environment. The authors, a group of atmospheric scientists, concluded that when aviation-induced cirrus radiative forcing is included, aviation represents 4.9 percent of total anthropogenic “radiative forcing of climate.” While these studies are not United States specific, as the EPA inventories are, since these studies consider all GHGs emitted by aviation (not just carbon dioxide), are focused entirely on the climate effect of aviation, and are based on more recent data, the conclusion that aviation contributes close to 5 percent of climate change is more accurate than the “under 2 percent” used by many in the aviation industry.

Fortunately, there are options available now to help global aviation reduce, and eventually even eliminate entirely it's "carbon footprint", i.e., rely on renewable bio-fuels, whose CO2 emissions are counteracted by the growth of new stock. The most promising source now seems to be the humble, often derided and scorned, ALGAE. 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algae_fuel
Algae fuel
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Algae fuel might be an alternative to fossil fuel and uses algae, or, sometimes, to use a more up-to-date term,[1] cyanobacteria,[2] as its source of natural deposits. Several companies and government agencies are funding efforts to reduce capital and operating costs and make algae fuel production commercially viable.[3] The production of biofuels from algae does not reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), because any CO2 taken out of the atmosphere by the algae is returned when the biofuels are burned - except where fuel gas emissions are captured and recycled as feedstock in an enclosed growth system such as that under development at 3 coal fired power stations in Australia. They also potentially reduce the introduction of new CO2 by displacing fossil hydrocarbon fuels.
High oil prices, competing demands between foods and other biofuel sources, and the world food crisis, have ignited interest in algaculture (farming algae) for making vegetable oil, biodiesel, bioethanol, biogasoline, biomethanol, biobutanol and other biofuels, using land that is not suitable for agriculture. Among algal fuels' attractive characteristics: they do not affect fresh water resources,[4] can be produced using ocean and wastewater, and are biodegradable and relatively harmless to the environment if spilled.[5][6][7] Algae cost more per unit mass (as of 2010, food grade algae costs ~$5000/tonne), due to high capital and operating costs,[8] yet can theoretically yield between 10 and 100 times more energy per unit area than other second-generation biofuel crops.[9] One biofuels company has claimed that algae can produce more oil in an area the size of a two car garage than a football field of soybeans, because almost the entire algal organism can use sunlight to produce lipids, or oil.[10] The United States Department of Energy estimates that if algae fuel replaced all the petroleum fuel in the United States, it would require 15,000 square miles (39,000 km2) which is only 0.42% of the U.S. map.[11] This is less than 17 the area of corn harvested in the United States in 2000.[12] However, these claims remain unrealized, commercially. According to the head of the Algal Biomass Organization algae fuel can reach price parity with oil in 2018 if granted production tax credits.[13] 

Jet fuel
Main article: Aviation biofuel
Rising jet fuel prices are putting severe pressure on airline companies,[25] creating an incentive for algal jet fuel research. The International Air Transport Association, for example, supports research, development and deployment of algal fuels. IATA’s goal is for its members to be using 10% alternative fuels by 2017.[26]

Trials have been carried with aviation biofuel by Air New Zealand,[27] and Virgin Airlines.[28]
In February 2010, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency announced that the U.S. military was about to begin large-scale production oil from algal ponds into jet fuel. After extraction at a cost of $2 per gallon, the oil will be refined at less than $3 a gallon. A larger-scale refining operation, producing 50 million gallons a year, is expected to go into production in 2013, with the possibility of lower per gallon costs so that algae-based fuel would be competitive with fossil fuels. The projects, run by the companies SAIC and General Atomics, are expected to produce 1,000 gallons of oil per acre per year from algal ponds.[29]

Algae cultivation

Algae can produce up to 300 times more oil per acre than conventional crops, such as rapeseed, palms, soybeans, or jatropha. As algae have a harvesting cycle of 1–10 days, it permits several harvests in a very short time frame, a differing strategy to yearly crops (Chisti 2007). Algae can also be grown on land that is not suitable for other established crops, for instance, arid land, land with excessively saline soil, and drought-stricken land. This minimizes the issue of taking away pieces of land from the cultivation of food crops (Schenk et al. 2008). Algae can grow 20 to 30 times faster than food crops.[30]

Photobioreactors

Most companies pursuing algae as a source of biofuels are pumping nutrient-laden water through plastic or borosilicate glass tubes (called "bioreactors" ) that are exposed to sunlight (and so called photobioreactors or PBR).
Running a PBR is more difficult than an open pond, and more costly, but also more effective.
Algae can also grow on marginal lands, such as in desert areas where the groundwater is saline, rather than utilize fresh water.[31]

Because algae strains with lower lipid content may grow as much as 30 times faster than those with high lipid content,[32] the difficulties in efficient biodiesel production from algae lie in finding an algal strain, with a combination of high lipid content and fast growth rate, that isn't too difficult to harvest; and a cost-effective cultivation system (i.e., type of photobioreactor) that is best suited to that strain. There is also a need to provide concentrated CO2 to increase the rate of production.

Closed loop system

Another obstacle preventing widespread mass production of algae for biofuel production has been the equipment and structures needed to begin growing algae in large quantities. Maximum use of existing agriculture processes and hardware is the goal.[33]

In a closed system (not exposed to open air) there is not the problem of contamination by other organisms blown in by the air. The problem for a closed system is finding a cheap source of sterile CO2. Several experimenters have found the CO2 from a smokestack works well for growing algae.[34][35] To be economical, some experts think that algae farming for biofuels will have to be done as part of cogeneration, where it can make use of waste heat, and help soak up pollution.[31][36]

Open pond

Open-pond systems for the most part have been given up for the cultivation of algae with high-oil content.[37] Many believe that a major flaw of the Aquatic Species Program was the decision to focus their efforts exclusively on open-ponds; this makes the entire effort dependent upon the hardiness of the strain chosen, requiring it to be unnecessarily resilient in order to withstand wide swings in temperature and pH, and competition from invasive algae and bacteria. Open systems using a monoculture are also vulnerable to viral infection. The energy that a high-oil strain invests into the production of oil is energy that is not invested into the production of proteins or carbohydrates, usually resulting in the species being less hardy, or having a slower growth rate. Algal species with a lower oil content, not having to divert their energies away from growth, have an easier time in the harsher conditions of an open system.

These are all encouraging developments. But we need faster development and mass implementation of these new technologies for the fuel needs of all our transportation sources, aviation, shipping, and land-based. The only way this can be accelerated is through both tax credits for existing companies engaging in these efforts, and focused funding and development by our government, similar in scale and urgency to the space program in the late 1950s through early 1970s. Most of the basic research has been done, we just need the focused resources to accelerate it's development. Of course, under the current U.S. government's corporate control, this will not occur. Just one more of the many reasons why we must end "corporate personhood", and their domination of our political process.
                                                      JUST TOO MUCH

Directly related to this, the last few weeks of the federal government's debt debacle were just too much for us here at the A.P.R. We are totally disgusted by the president's abject capitulation to the demands of the psycho/sociopathic "tea-party" Republicans, to begin cutting/dismantling Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid. We have been warning you for some time that most of the Democrats, and Obama in particular, are just as much beholden to the "corporatocracy" as the Republicans. This should now be crystal clear, as Glenn Greenwald lays out very succinctly in this article:

Democratic Politics in a Nutshell
Let's begin by taking note of three facts:
(1) Three days ago, Democratic Rep. John Conyers, appearing at a meeting of the Out of Poverty caucus, said: "The Republicans -- Speaker Boehner or Majority Leader Cantor -- did not call for Social Security cuts in the budget deal. The President of the United States called for that" (video here, at 1:30);
(2) The reported deal on the debt ceiling is so completely one-sided -- brutal domestic cuts with no tax increases on the rich and the likelihood of serious entitlement cuts in six months with a "Super Congressional" deficit commission -- that even Howard Kurtz was able to observe: "If there are $3 trillion in cuts and no tax hikes, Obama will have to explain how it is that the Republicans got 98 pct. of what they wanted," while Grover Norquist, the Right of the Right on such matters, happily proclaimed: "Sounds like a budget deal with real savings and no tax hikes is a go."
(3) The same White House behavior shaping the debt deal -- full embrace of GOP policies and (in the case of Social Security cuts) going beyond that -- has been evident in most policy realms from the start. It first manifested in the context of Obama's adoption of the Bush/Cheney approach to the war on civil liberties and Terrorism, which is why civil libertarians were the first to object so vocally and continuously to the Obama presidency, culminating in this amazing event from mid-2010: "Speaking at a conference of liberal activists Wednesday morning, ACLU Executive Director Anthony Romero didn't mince his words about the administration's handling of civil liberties issues. 'I'm going to start provocatively . . . I'm disgusted with this president,' Romero told the America's Future Now breakout session."

In other words, a slew of millionaire politicians who spent the last decade exploding the national debt with Endless War, a sprawling Surveillance State, and tax cuts for the rich are now imposing extreme suffering on the already-suffering ordinary citizenry, all at the direction of their plutocratic overlords, who are prospering more than ever and will sacrifice virtually nothing under this deal (despite their responsibility for the 2008 financial collapse that continues to spawn economic misery). And all of this will be justified by these politicians and their millionaire media mouthpieces with the obscenely deceitful slogans of "shared sacrifice" and "balanced debt reduction" -- two of the most odiously Orwellian phrases since "Look Forward, not Backward" and "2009 Nobel Peace Prize laureate" (and anyone claiming that Obama was involuntarily forced by the "crazy" Tea Party into massive budget cuts at a time of almost 10% unemployment: see the actual facts here).

With those fact assembled, this morning's New York Times article -- headlined: "Rightward Tilt Leaves Obama With Party Rift" -- supplies the perfect primer for understanding Democratic Party politics. The article explains that "Mr. Obama, seeking to appeal to the broad swath of independent voters, has adopted the Republicans' language and in some cases their policies," and then lists numerous examples just from the debt debate alone (never mind all the other areas where he's done the same):
No matter how the immediate issue is resolved, Mr. Obama, in his failed effort for greater deficit reduction, has put on the table far more in reductions for future years' spending, including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security, than he did in new revenue from the wealthy and corporations. He proposed fewer cuts in military spending and more in health care than a bipartisan Senate group that includes one of the chamber's most conservative Republicans. . . .
But by this month, in ultimately unsuccessful talks with Speaker John A. Boehner, Mr. Obama tentatively agreed to a plan that was farther to the right than that of the majority of the fiscal commission and a bipartisan group of senators, the so-called Gang of Six. It also included a slow rise in the Medicare eligibility age to 67 from 65, and, after 2015, a change in the formula for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments long sought by economists.
How can the leader of the Democratic Party wage an all-out war on the ostensible core beliefs of the Party's voters in this manner and expect not just to survive, but thrive politically? Democratic Party functionaries are not shy about saying exactly what they're thinking in this regard:

Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster, said polling data showed that at this point in his term, Mr. Obama, compared with past Democratic presidents, was doing as well or better with Democratic voters. "Whatever qualms or questions they may have about this policy or that policy, at the end of the day the one thing they're absolutely certain of -- they're going to hate these Republican candidates," Mr. Mellman said. "So I'm not honestly all that worried about a solid or enthusiastic base.”

In other words: it makes no difference to us how much we stomp on liberals' beliefs or how much they squawk, because we'll just wave around enough pictures of Michele Bachmann and scare them into unconditional submission. That's the Democratic Party's core calculation: from "hope" in 2008 to a rank fear-mongering campaign in 2012. Will it work? The ones who will determine if it will are the intended victims of that tactic: angry, impotent liberals whom the White House expects will snap dutifully into line no matter what else happens (even, as seems likely, massive Social Security and Medicare cuts) between now and next November.
Enough of that for now, I hope if any of you who are Democrats reading this, will see now who they are really working for. Certainly not for you! There are a few exceptions of course, like Congressman Dennis Kucinich, but they are few and far between. We will NEVER vote for any Democratic politician on a national scale again.
Well, let's move on to something a little more pleasant. We'd just like to show you a few pictures from another close-at-hand area here near Anchorage, that we are fortunate enough to have quick access to, for running, hiking, and skiing.

                                             THREE FIFTY-FUN
This was the route of a beautiful 31 km (19 mile) run we did about ten days ago, up the South Fork of the Eagle River drainage, to Symphony and Eagle lakes, with a side jaunt up Hanging Valley, on the return leg. Unfortunately, we had to leave our research assistant Homer back at the CFRC. He had a large tumor on his left front leg (which has since been removed, and he's on the mend nicely), which was impeding his mobility; this would have proven very troublesome for him on this rocky, and at times, rough route. He was unhappy about that, but he would have been more so, had he gone along.
Not more than 20 minutes after we started our run, around 1300 in the afternoon, on a beautiful sunny day, with a temperature near 17C (63F), Mattie had to pursue one of her favourite pastimes. She just has to always be in the water, when it's not frozen, no matter how dirty or muddy. And seems to really enjoy the mud. Needless to say, I had to warn others on the trail to stay away from the "Mud Monster", lest she try and give some muddy affection to them. We're always able to find some clean, clear water though, at the end of our outings, for her to clean up in.
Just about 9 km in, from the trailhead, after gently rolling along the east side of the S. Fork of the Eagle River, the trail ends up in vast piles of granitic boulders, just before reaching Eagle Lake. These went on for almost 2 km, and were quite arduous, having to stumble and scramble over. Homer would have had a very difficult, if not impossible, go of it here. As it was, I had to walk most of this part, which was partially marked by cairns. Fortunately the rocks were dry, these lichen-covered boulders can become treacherously slippery when wet.
Beautiful little Symphony Lake was the first one we came into. It's not nearly as big, or long, as Eagle Lake, but is backed by 2000+ metre (6560 ft) peaks. Since this was only 10 km in from the trailhead, it's a fairly easy pack in, and so there were several parties camped around the lake.
After sightseeing here, we next ran back over the boulder fields to Eagle Lake, which is our favourite. It is a long, glacial fed (hence that wonderful pale blue colour) lake, in a fiord-like valley, which was clearly scraped out by glaciers in the last ice age, if not sooner.
It is about 4 km in length (2.4 miles), but we weren't able to quite make it running down it's full length. A narrow trail/track on the south side of it eventually just petered out into thick berries/alder brush, forcing Mattie and I to turn back. She saw and flushed several ptarmigan in here, but they are too fast for her, fortunately.

This is surely one of the most beautiful lakes in our area, backed as it is by other 2000+ metre peaks. We'll be back here quite a bit, when we have the time. It only took us about 90 minutes of running/scrambling to reach near to the end of the lake.
So we had to turn back, and head back out. But we weren't ready to give up yet. We wanted a longer run, for marathon training (I prefer at least 30K training runs, once per week, Mattie of course does 2 to 3 times whatever Homer and I do).  So on the way back up the S. Fk. Eagle River trail, we headed up the Hanging Valley trail, a spur that takes you in to the little, sheltered, Hanging Valley. It was a steep ascent up a few hundred metres at first, before leveling off in the valley into a rolling, curving route.
It's a beautiful, fairly easily accessible place. We didn't make it all the way back into the head of the valley, which is backed by 1500-1800 metre peaks, and contains a small lake, we wanted to save that for an actual pack trip. It would be a fairly easy one as well, but one not too-heavily used. We saw no one else in here, even just half way in, on this saturday afternoon. After running in about 4 km, we turned round, and headed back out, ready to finish our run, and head back to Homer, at the CFRC. We were feeling a little guilty, and had to get him out for at least a decent walk, when we returned.
The late afternoon light, coming out of Hanging Valley, was sure beautiful, on this perfect day. We don't have too many mild, sunny days like this, in South-Central Alaska summers, so this was a treasure. Light winds, and around 17-18C (63-65F).
One of our favourite views though, heading back toward the trailhead, is that looking back, up the valley. Where the 2000+ metre glaciated peaks form the backdrop, looming up behind as a beautiful sheer wall of rock, snow, and ice.
What more could we ask for, on our 3:51, 31 km run/scramble? We were both a little tired, but so glad we were able to have a day like this for our outing. We wouldn't be anywhere else.  Cheers.

Monday, July 4, 2011

WILL THIS BE ENOUGH? [and] BACKYARD RAMBLING

                         WILL THIS BE ENOUGH?
to finally get some momentum and political pressure going in the industrialised nations to reign in fossil-fuel emissions, and prevent runaway warming and catastrophic sea level rises? http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2011/07/01-6

We here at the Alaska Progressive Review have for some time have been giving you our assessment of the current state of the global climate, and it's rapid process of change, due to the release of CO2 and Methane, from fossil fuel combustion. Mainly from the industrialised nations, the two biggest sources being now China, and the U.S.
 
 
Of course all of our assessments have been based on the current state of the science of climatology, meteorology, and atmospheric physics. Now, more "official" governmental scientists are speaking out, and this IS IMPORTANT! Unfortunately, you aren't seeing much of this in the U.S. corporate media, note that the following article comes from the U.K.-based Independent, a somewhat progressive newspaper.

Extreme Weather Link 'Can No Longer Be Ignored'

Scientists to end 20-year reluctance with study into global warming and exceptional weather events

by Steve Connor

Scientists are to end their 20-year reluctance to link climate change with extreme weather – the heavy storms, floods and droughts which often fill news bulletins – as part of a radical departure from a previous equivocal position that many now see as increasingly untenable.
In this April 19, 2011 file photo, smoke rises from an uncontrolled wildfire burning near Possum Kingdom, Texas. It was a spring to remember, with America pummeled by tornadoes, floods, wildfire, snowmelt, thunderstorms and drought. (AP Photo/LM Otero, File)
Climate researchers from Britain, the United States and other parts of the world have formed a new international alliance that aims to investigate exceptional weather events to see whether they can be attributable to global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
They believe that it is no longer plausible merely to claim that extreme weather is “consistent” with climate change. Instead, they intend to assess each unusual event in terms of the probability that it has been exacerbated or even caused by the global temperature increase seen over the past century.

The move is likely to be highly controversial because the science of “climate attribution” is still in the early stages of development and so is likely to be pounced on by climate “skeptics” who question any link between industrial emissions of carbon dioxide and rises in global average temperatures.
In the past scientists have been extremely reluctant to link a single extreme weather event with climate change, arguing that the natural variability of the weather makes it virtually impossible to establish any definitive association other than a possible general consistency with what is expected from studies based on computer models.

However, a growing number of climate scientists are now prepared to adopt a far more aggressive posture, arguing that the climate has already changed enough for it to be affecting the probability of an extreme weather event, whether it is an intense hurricane, a major flood or a devastating drought.

“We’ve certainly moved beyond the point of saying that we can’t say anything about attributing extreme weather events to climate change,” said Peter Stott, a leading climate scientist at the Met Office Hadley Centre in Exeter.

“It’s very clear we’re in a changed climate now which means there’s more moisture in the atmosphere and the potential for stronger storms and heavier rainfall is clearly there.”

Kevin Trenberth, a distinguished senior scientist at the US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, also believes the time has come to emphasize the link between extreme weather and the global climate in which it develops.

“The environment in which all storms form has changed owing to human activities, in particular it is warmer and more moist than it was 30 or 40 years ago,” Dr Trenberth said.

“We have this extra water vapor lurking around waiting for storms to develop and then there is more moisture as well as heat that is available for these storms [to form]. The models suggest it is going to get drier in the subtropics, wetter in the monsoon trough and wetter at higher latitudes. This is the pattern we're already seeing.”

The Met Office and NCAR have joined forces with other climate organizations, including the influential US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA), to carry out detailed investigations of extreme weather events, such as the vast flooding in Pakistan last year, to see whether they can detect a climate change “signal” as a likely cause.

A group of their researchers has formed a coalition called the Attribution of Climate-Related Events which is preparing a report on the subject to be published later this year at a meeting of the World Climate Research Program in Denver. They hope in the future to assess each extreme weather phenomenon in terms of its probability of being linked with global warming and then to post the result on the internet.

“There is strong evidence if you look across the world that we are seeing an increase in heatwaves and floods and droughts and extreme rainfall and extreme temperatures,” Dr Stott said.

“The evidence is clear from looking at the observational records globally that extreme temperatures and extreme rainfall are changing. But you can’t jump from that and say that a specific event is straightforwardly attributable because we know that natural variability could have played a part.

“We’ve been developing the science to be increasingly more quantitative about the links and make more definitive statements about how the risk has changed. You look sensibly about these things by talking about changing risk, or changing probability of these events.”

Dr Stott had his colleagues have already carried out studies of the 2003 heatwave in Europe, in which up to 35,000 people died of heat-related illnesses, as well as the devastating UK floods in 2000 which cost £1.3bn in insurance claims and destroyed 10,000 homes following the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766.

In both cases, the scientists found that the contribution of man-made greenhouse gases to global warming substantially increased the risk of such extreme events occurring. The group is also investigating the exceptional warm April in Britain this year, which was the warmest since central England records were kept in 1659 and 0.5C warmer on average than the previous warmest April.

Also this year, an unprecedented number of tornadoes across the southeastern US and the flooding of major rivers such as the Mississippi and Missouri led many people to question whether they were exacerbated by global warming. In the past scientists would have been reluctant to link single weather events such as these with climate change, but Dr Trenberth believes this is wrong.

“I will not say that you cannot link one event to these things. I will say instead that the environment in which all of these storms are developing has changed,” Dr Trenberth told The Independent.

“It’s not so much the instantaneous result of the greenhouse effect, it’s the memory of the system and the main memory is in the oceans and the oceans have warmed up substantially, at depth, and we can measure that. I will assert that every event has been changed by climate change and the main time we perceive it is when we find ourselves outside the realms of the previous natural variability, and because natural variability is so large this is why we don't notice it most of the time.

“When we have things that occur usually 4 per cent of the time start to occur 10 per cent of the time, that’s when we begin to notice. The main way we perceive climate change is in changes in the extremes, this is when we break records.”

A report by the insurance company Munich Re found that 2010 was one of the worst years on record for natural disasters, nine-tenths of which were related to extreme weather, such as the floods in Pakistan and eastern Australia and heatwave in Russia, which is estimated to have killed at least 56,000 people, making it the most deadly natural disaster in the country’s history.

“This long-term trend can no longer be explained by natural climate oscillations alone. No, the probability is that climate change is contributing to some of the warming of the world’s oceans,” said Peter Höppe, author of the Munich Re report.
 
Making the connection
Tornadoes, US, 2011 More than 220 people were killed by tornadoes and violent storms that ripped through south-eastern United States in April; 131 were killed in Alabama alone. Fifteen people died in Tuscaloosa and sections of the city were destroyed.
 
Heatwave, UK, 2011April was the warmest since 1659, when records in England began. Sun-lovers flocked to St Ives, above, but fears of drought were raised. Rainfall in the UK that month was only 52 per cent of the long-term average.

Drought, Brazil, 2005 The Amazon region suffered the worst drought in more than a century. The floodplains dried up and people were walking or using bicycles on areas where canoes and river boats had been the only means of transport.

Floods, USA, 2005 Katrina was one of the five deadliest hurricanes in the history of the US, and it caused the destruction of New Orleans when levees were overwhelmed. Some 90 per cent of residents of south-east Louisiana were evacuated.
The other day, we set out for a 30 KM "slow-pack" in our backyard, to some areas we've been in a few times this past winter. Namely, we wanted to finally ascend "The Ramp", which at 1598 metres (5240 ft.), had eluded us twice, for different reasons. Although it was a cool, cloudy day, the promise of rain the next day, meant we had to give it our all, when we could at least stay dry, even if we did have to ascend into the clouds at times. We're calling it "slow-pack", versus our usual fast-packs, because we did have to ascend the Ramp in the fog, very slowly, so as not to lose our way, and fall into trouble.

At the top of Ship Lake Pass, which took about three hours to hike into, we were already just about in the clouds. But the view to the east, of beautiful alpine Ship Lake, was not to be missed. It's not too difficult of a descent, down into the lake, and Ship Creek Valley, but we had more ascending to do.
The view to the north, of the Ship Creek Valley, was also well worth the trip, even on a cool, cloudy day. Here at the top of the pass, it was about 5C (41F), with a steady 30 kph (18-20 mph) breeze. I definitely had to put a hat and gloves on, when we stopped here for a breather and some water. But the Ramp beckoned, even through the top 300 metres were totally obscured in the fog. We slowly ascended up its steep slopes, clad in tundra, mixed in with large areas of loose scree/talus, which sometimes easily gave way with just a slight pressure of the feet. Requiring us to be very careful. We knew the way though, from our previous attempts, and also that the valley/bowl we came up, was right below us, and still beneath the clouds. When we reached the ridgeline of the Ramp's sharp sharktooth-like peak, we actually felt a little queasy and disoriented in the thick fog, with visibilities of 10 metres or less. Because as we looked down into the abyss on the north side of the ridgeline, with it's sheer 300+ metre drop, we couldn't see the bottom. Homer is almost 15 now, and he had no problem ascending with us on these steep slopes, for which we were very greatful. But we give him lots of exercise, in outings like this, good food, and attention, which keeps him thriving.
We just spent a few minutes in the fog at the top of the Ramp, hoping for some clearing. Once in awhile, a thin spot in the clouds would let more light in, but the visibility never did improve to more than 20 metres or so. It was a cool 2-3C up there (35-38F), with a stiff south breeze, rather chilly. So we slowly descended back down the gentler, but still steep, south face, back to the valley we came up in. We had lunch where the the trail that takes off from the Powerline trail, splits in two, one branch heading to the Ship Lake Pass, the other to Hidden Lake. We hadn't been to Hidden Lake before, so we needed to check it out. It was just 3 or 4 more KM up, and another 300 metres or so of elevation. There was one small lake first, about 2 KM in, but after a steep rise, on the other side, in a bowl, part of whose headwall is the Ramp, lies the jewel of Hidden Lake, a very apt name, as it can't be seen, until you are right on it.
We are quite sure that on a rare sunny day, this lake would have that beautiful pale blue alpine colour we greatly prize in our outings, as it means these lakes are completely clean, wild, and unspoiled by any human activity (and also very cold!). It was starting to sprinkle a bit after we got here, so we didn't spend much time. Had it been a warmer, sunny day, there is no doubt I would have gone for a swim in there, I'd sure like to some day. We descended back down to the trail junction, and then down to the Powerline Trail. We still wanted to head in to an area we haven't seen before, so just before we reached the trailhead, we decided to head up the Middle Fork Loop trail, which has a steep ascent up a ridge on the other side of the valley that the Powerline trail is in. It was raining lightly at this point, but we didn't care, as we just had another hour or two, before finishing. As we ascended this steep section of trail, we ran into a group of 15 teenagers with two adult chaperones, on a five-day pack-trip. These kids were from all over the World, the adults are part of a group that takes teens on trips like this to build leadership and outdoor skills. All the kids just loved Mattie and Homer, since most had never seen real sled dogs, and were very nice. I told them to expect alot of rain on their trip, but I'm sure they had a good time.
Our ascent brought us up to 1050 metre (3500 ft) Little False Point, which has a beautiful view of the Anchorage "Bowl" and Cook Inlet, in the evening sun. It was getting later in the evening and I didn't bring full dinners for Homer and Mattie, so we headed quickly back down after that, and to the trailhead, so I could rush them home in the short 15 minute drive back to the CFRC, for dinner. After all, in our 30 KM 8 1/2 hour backyard ramble, Mattie must have done at least double that, with all her running around, and Homer, probably 40-50 KM. This is why we live here, to be so fortunate to have this for our backyard. 

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

TWILIGHT AT ELEVEN

That's the earliest twilight now starts here on the longest day of the year, at 61N. Then staying twilight until around 230 am, after which, the sun peeks back up over the horizon. It being one of our most significant dates, here at the Alaska Progressive Review, with thousands of years of historical significance, in every culture, and on every continent. So we felt a need to be in a peaceful natural setting, and we have many staked out around here in Anchorage. For which we are very fortunate.
An easy place to get to, we really like, is just 45 minutes of running from our door, here at the CFRC, which we do 4-5 times a week. This was last late October. But now being the summer solstice, is completely different. The North Fork of Campbell Creek Canyon, which we run to most days in summer, off the Tank Road. But sometimes for quicker access, we drive up to the end of Basher Road and park there. Then head down the steep trail. Views of the higher country quickly come in, which are nice in the spaces between the thick boreal forest. This part of the trail is very steep and potentially treacherous in all seasons.
At the bottom of the steep section, in the heart of the North Fork of Campbell Creek canyon, there is a little rock bridge you can sit on and enjoy the rushing water sound and sensations. We even had to go in past our ankles, it was so inviting, after a long day of running  and hiking.
  Further up the canyon, it opens up into tall grass fields, as you gain elevation above 1500 feet. The weather up here gets progressively colder and harsher by this altitude, than down in the city below 500 feet. The real high country really teases us as we keep going up. These peaks are only around 5000 feet, but they are completely devoid of life, nothing grows on them, not even lichens or moss, it is so cold and harsh, at that altitude.
We kept going with our picnic dinner about another mile, this is about 1.5 miles in from Basher road. About another mile in, there was a nice log to sit on and enjoy dinner, that was just open enough to allow a breeze through, and keep the bugs down.
Mattie is completely on guard, with all her senses, when we stop in places like this. She treed a black bear an hour into our three hour run today, just took straight off after it. I couldn't stop her. She truly has the energy and courage of two dogs in that little body of hers. We trust her implicitly to warn us of and fend off any danger. Homer does his best too. He keeps watch on the trail downhill. For people or other animals coming up. He is an imposing presence, to be sure. But completely gentle, and mellow now in his old age. I've known him for ten years now, and he did exact a harsh discipline when he was in charge of a 34 dog kennel in Fairbanks. I knew then how special he was, and was so glad when he came to us two years ago. He has great wisdom on many things, in his advanced age of nearly 15. We had a nice dinner here this evening in the gentle evening light. Heading back, viewpoints like this offered very nice peaceful views looking back over parts of Anchorage, to Cook Inlet. Anchorage is in a very special and favored place between mountains and the sea, protected from the coldest interior air by the Alaska Range, and sheltered from the heaviest rains and strongest winds associated with Gulf of Alaska low pressure systems, by the Chugach Mountains all year.


After a cool and cloudy morning, with a few sprinkles, the gentle evening light in the sunshine was very welcome, on this longest day of the year. That's what it looks like here at 2200 hours at 61.15 North, in the sub-Arctic. Happy Solstice! It is much cooler here in summer, than in the Interior. to the north, so days like this, are really special. A nice time to reflect on the good things we have here. We have to take breaks from the reality we see, as dilineated here, http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/12787, and get out into the natural world. For energy, inspiration, and healing.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

WE DREAM OF GINI

The GINI coefficient http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient is a relative measure of income and "wealth" equality. It can, if interpreted judiciously, thinking about the structures and cultures of the countries being assessed, give an accurate picture of the relative health and stability of a nation, based on it's measured inequalities. 

In this case, if we just look at "industrialised" nations, the U.S. is quite low in the assessment, meaning the inequality in wealth, and income, is very high. Note that Mexico, and China, are now in the same grouping, as the U.S. However, remember, this is a relative index. But, in U.S. average income terms, which are much higher than those in Mexico, or China, our society is as unequal as theirs. Of course, in Mexico, and to a certain extent, China, the population of these nations as a whole, have less access to the things we accept as "normal", namely, clean safe tap water, wherever we are, proper sanitation, and a "safe" food supply, wherever we choose to obtain it. In addition most "poor" people in the U.S. have electricity (pre-supposing they are able to afford housing) and the ability to at least obtain food that will ensure their survival in a basic sense. 

However, these things are not to be taken for granted. If current trends and policies continue, the U.S. will develop the structure and insecurities of current "third world" nations within a decade or two.
Your lead editor has visited, lived in, and experienced other countries, where the GINI Index is much lower. And have felt that, as a whole, the majority of the people in these countries, feel happier, and are more satisfied with their nations, feel more a part of and connected to their neighbours and with how they fit in, their nation's role at large, in the World. Countries like Australia, and Canada, and of course, most of Western Europe. Why don't we learn from them, after all, most of us can trace our ancestries back to these countries, and still have connections with them. 

OK, here is a quick assessment of what I learned about Australia, when I stayed there for six weeks in 2008/09. It has a "social democracy" similar to the U.K., New Zealand, Canada, and most other western European countries. 

Minimum Wage: $15.38 per hour AUSD (exchange rate in 2008 with USD about .85)
Health Care: All citizens have universal insurance coverage. Complete health care is available to all. Similar to the U.K.
Vacation: All citizens receive at least four weeks leave, private or public sector.
Unemployment: $1543 AUSD per month. Unlimited, but they have strong, successful fraud monitoring, job application requirements, and job placement services.

Yet, something is different about the U.S., amongst all the industrialised nations. This chart tells a very big picture. Other than Singapore and Hong Kong, the U.S. is far and away the most inequal. And measures poorly in many other of these statistics. This is a direct result of the concerted political strategies of "conservative" politicians since the 1970s, but which really accelerated in the 1980s, and continue unabated to the present day.
We liked this article. http://www.commondreams.org/view/2011/06/05-1 It is written by a true psychologist, so someone who would be able to provide informed and unbiased assessments.

The Rise of the Second-String Psychopaths

The great writer Kurt Vonnegut titled his final book A Man without a Country. He was the man; the country was the United States of America. Vonnegut felt that his country had disappeared right under his – and the Constitution’s – feet, through what he called “the sleaziest, low-comedy Keystone Cops-style coup d’état imaginable.” He was talking about the Bush administration. Were Vonnegut still alive in the post-Bush era, he would not have felt that his country had returned.

How had our country disappeared? Vonnegut proposed that among the contributing factors was that it had been invaded – as if by the Martians – by people with a particularly frightening mental illness. People with this illness were termed psychopaths. (The term nowadays is anti-social personality disorder.) These are terms for people who are smart, personable, and engaging, but who have no consciences. They are not guided by a sense of right or wrong. They seem to be unaffected by the feelings of others, including feelings of distress caused by their actions. Straying from a decent way of treating people, or violating ethical codes causes no anxiety, the anxiety which is what causes the rest of us to moderate our more greedy impulses. If most children feel anxiety when they are pilfering the forbidden cookie jar, psychopaths feel just fine. They can devour the cookies, shatter the jar as evidence and stuff it in the trash can. When accused, they can argue with apparent sincerity that the cookie jar has been missing for at least a week. There suffer no remorse, no guilt, no shame. They are free to do anything, no matter how harmful.

Psychopaths can be very tricky to recognize. As psychiatrist Dr. Hervey Cleckly wrote in his classic The Mask of Sanity in 1941, psychopaths are not technically insane. They don’t have a psychosis, like schizophrenia. They are experts in appearing normal. They can act the role of a caring, concerned executive, even though they actually do not seem to experience such feelings. If they hurt somebody, they don’t modify their behavior.

The United States corporate and government spheres have become, Vonnegut suggested, a perfect habitat for psychopaths. What has allowed so many psychopaths to rise so high in corporations, and then government, he wrote,

“is that they are so decisive. They are going to do something every fuckin’ day and they are not afraid. Unlike normal people, they are never filled with doubts, for the simple reason that they don’t give a f..k what happens next. Simply can’t. Do this! Do that! Mobilize the reserves! Privatize the public schools! Attack Iraq! Cut health care! Tap everybody’s telephone! Cut taxes on the rich!
In a country in which much of human culture has been rendered into machines for the manufacture of money, psychopaths are the ideal leaders. They are very focused. They are outcome oriented. They are frequently charming, and usually very bright and able. They can lay off thousands of people, or deny people health care, or have them waterboarded, and it does not disturb their sleep. They can be impressively confident. Psychopaths can be dynamic leaders of enterprises, but are handicapped by their lack of feelings for relationships. They may be accomplished captains of industry, or senators, or surgeons, but their families are frequently abused and miserable. Most psychotherapists have seen the wives or husband or children of such accomplished people.


Since psychopaths are usually very smart, they can be quite competent at impersonating regular human beings in positions of power. Since they don’t care how their actions affect people, they can rise to great height in enterprises dealing with power and money. They can manufacture bombs or run hospitals. Whatever the undertaking, it is all the same to them. It’s just business.
The economic system that remains after the destruction of American local cultures has created an excellent employment picture for psychopaths. But the opportunities open to them are now so vast that there is apparently now an actual labor shortage. At least that is the only explanation I can find for the rise of a cadre of psychopathic leaders who resemble the usual type in all ways but one: they’re simply not that smart. One has only to look at right-wing not-so-Christian fundamentalists to see the peculiar emergence of a second-string of psychopaths.

The US has been endowed with abundant resources, and there have always been a more than sufficient supply of psychopaths of the first intellectual grade to supply corporate suites and their subsidiary, the Congress. Why is there now a downgrade to the dumb ones, like the lowering of standards for military recruits to deal with a shortage of cannon fodder?

It is no secret that the Koch brothers and others of the super-rich seem to have undertaken a final push to consolidate control through the conversion of a marginally democratic to an essentially fascist state; extreme right-wing, authoritarian, and demagogic. This kind of government is ideal for control of a populace by the moneyed elite. To carry this out requires the employment of many ‘kept’ politicians to excite and misdirect scared and angry – and ignorant – voters. Lest the citizenry realize who stole their money and storm their castles with torches, the rapacious elite need politicians who will carry out the work of re-directing anger at teachers, or labor unions, or the poor. I can only conclude that the people who now own the country couldn’t find any first-rate psychopaths to carry out their work. Or maybe the smart ones were all occupied. So they had to go to second-stringers, people who could actually believe what they were told to say.

We are a country who has become second-best, even in the quality of our psychopaths.
We at the Alaska Progressive Review, think that the reason so many people of this type are in charge of our political and economic system in the U.S. is because of the nation's unresolved and often suppressed racism. That is to say, a majority of the major ethnic group of it, European-descendants, are still afraid of other groups, African-Americans, Asians, Hispanics, and Native Americans. And that the "corporatocracy", or oligarchy, the major powers in U.S. society, the financial sector, fossil fuel, military-industrial, insurance, and other large corporate sectors, use this to persuade people to continue to vote against their own interests. How else can you explain Republican (and now even Democratic) politicians who would decimate social security and medicare, continue to grant tax benefits and breaks to the top few percent of the population and large corporations (that continually send more and more jobs to other countries, with U.S. government support) continuing to get re-elected? Of course, the corporate media does it's share to keep people uninformed, and that is a very large concern. Not to be ignored, and worthy of great concern.
But, the reason these other nations have benefits and security like they do, is because the people in them have more empathy, are not afraid of, and relate more, to their fellow people. A nation gets the government they deserve, in the sense that it is a reflection of the overall feelings and beliefs of the people in it. We think this idea is a good starting point for working for positive change. How do we really feel about people different from us? Of other cultures and ethnicities? Are all people equally worthy with respect to the culture we consider ourselves to be parts of? Are Indigenous peoples, who have completely different world-views, than most of ours in the U.S, culturally and spiritually "equal" to ours? Because if we don't think so, we'll never effectively solve global problems like overpopulation, resource depletion, environmental destruction, and global warming. Which if left unchecked will all combine to render a World much less inhabitable, for our descendants, within the next century. Cheers.