A MORE PERFECT STORM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Perfect_Storm

The "Perfect Storm" that occurred off the northeast US coast in 10/1991 was originally an "extra-tropical" low pressure system, fed by the jet stream and overall tropical-subpolar temperature gradients. It produced it's greatest damage and all the fatalities in this phase of it's existence over the eastern US and southeastern Canada. This was Hollywood-dramatised in the movie of the same name, which came out several years later. The storm ended moving further into the subtropics and then transitioned into a category 1 hurricane. This is different from the "Frankenstorm" Hurricane Sandy, now brewing just off the SE US coast. Sandy had been up to a category 2 hurricane a few days previously in the Caribbean, she has weakened moving further north.

But what happens next is what is so interesting, unusual, and possibly, unprecedented! More will be known within 72 hours as she moves ashore, right now models are mostly pointing toward the Delaware River outlet. But Sandy's evolution is just the opposite of the "Perfect Storm" of 1991. In Sandy's case, she has been/will be weakening considerably as a hurricane moving out of the tropics, but within 48 hours from now will get fed by the contrast of colder/drier air originally moving south from the Arctic. In the form of this low pressure trough over the eastern US, on this mornings 500 mb (usually around 5300-5900 metres, or centred around 18,000 ft.) analysis. Sandy shows up as the small upper-level feature off of the Florida coast.

 

Then she will be undergoing a transition from hurricane-type structure/processes, to an extratropical system, which is much different. And which has not been studied much, as it rarely occurs. Sandy's movement too, is contributing to it's interest. So whilst models are forecasting tropical storm type conditions as it moves ashore, the scale of them will be much larger, and for a longer period of time. Likely to produce severe flooding, from heavy rains, and storm-generated surges on top of the monthly high tide in many areas.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/federal-officials-warn-of-hurricane-sandys-rare-damage-potential-15170

We will certainly be offering you a post-storm assessment, several days after her peak. But for now, just wanted to bring it to your attention. It will be an event of some significance in the next 5 days.

 

Today though, on our usual daily scan, when we saw this headline like something from a U.K. tabloid, but with a "liberal" slant to it, we had no choice but to dive in and take a look.

 

http://www.commondreams.org/view/2012/10/27-6  You've seen much like this before here with us, but Juan Cole put it together very nicely. A little commentary of our own as well, first.

 

We obviously don't envision a "vengeful Mother Nature" throwing this storm at the eastern US as punishment. Any more than Katrina was for the Gulf Coast, or Andrew for Florida. It is what it is, and must be dealt with. Generally speaking, in all powerful and destructive storms in modern history, the well-off are able to flee quickly/safely, while mainly poor people can't, who then can't rebuild quickly/easily. We hope for the best for everyone there. Worst-case scenarios have been discussed involving the flooding of parts of the NYC subway system, among other things.

 

The Alaska Progressive Review does like the tabloidy/seedy headline though. We think it was either Pat Robertson or Jerry Fallwell, the conservative Christian televangelists, who pinned Katrina on the sins of New Orleans, etc.. back in 2005.

 

Published on Saturday, October 27, 2012 by Informed Comment

Candidates Flee East Coast as Frankenstorm Takes Revenge for their Ignoring Climate Change

by Juan Cole

Mitt Romney and Joe Biden have canceled campaign events planned for this weekend at Virginia Beach as a massive storm bears down on the east coast of the US. The candidates are fleeing from the East Coast, even though they won’t talk about the key environmental issue of our time.
The candidates in this year’s presidential election completely ignored climate change in their debates and their campaigning, even thought it is the most deadly issue facing this country and all humankind. Human beings are dumping massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning coal, natural gas and petroleum at feverish rates. They have already increased temperatures significantly since 1750, and are on track to put up the average surface temperature of the earth by 5 degrees C. or 9 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century, enough to turn everyplace on earth over time into a sweating tropics, melt all surface ice, and, over the long term, submerge a third of the current land mass. A global state of emergency would be necessary to keep the temperature increase to 2 degrees C. or less, but the window is rapidly closing for this curbing of disaster.
 

Big oil is pouring money into the Romney campaign or superpacs supporting him, so as to make sure they keep their tax breaks but those for wind power are abolished. The power of big Carbon money is preventing climate change from being discussed in the campaign, even though it affects every American voter. Romney’s energy policies will cause global disaster, but even Obama doesn’t seem to realize the severity and urgency of the problem (or else he does and feels his hands are tied).

 

A new study appearing in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that uses accurate tide measurements since 1923 removes any doubt that hurricanes are more frequent and stronger in warm years (the number of warm years has steadily increased over the past century and especially in the past decade).

[pdf] For every increase of 1 degree Fahrenheit, US hurricanes will likely get 2% stronger (i.e. they are already 5% stronger than 2 centuries ago). In hurricanes, a 5% increase in ferocity matters quite a lot.

 

One mechanism for the increased severity is that higher temperatures produce more high-altitude clouds, called “deep convective clouds,” associated increased rainfall.

 

One recent study [pdf] found that torrential downpours in the United States are occurring a third more often than in 1948. New England has been the worst hit, with torrential downpours 85% more common now than in 1948. Note that these findings are based on actual historical records, and are not a matter of projection.

 

Across the board, storms are 10% more intense now than when Truman was president.

Hurricanes are a more contentious issue than storms but models show that the speed of hurricane winds could increase by as much as 13 percent over the next century as a result of our production of carbon dioxide, and rainfall rates will increase 10-31 percent in hurricanes. Because of the rising level of the seas, hurricanes will cause larger storm surges.
 

A Tel Aviv researcher has shown that every one degree increase Celsius produces a 10% increase in lightning, with the attendant dangers of increased forest and other fires.

 

Those who talk about solar energy being “more expensive” than coal or natural gas are not figuring in the expensiveness of climate change. In many markets, wind and solar are already competitive, and if the damage hydrocarbons are doing to our economy were taken into account, they’d be the only game in town. [but in capitalism as it exists now in most of the world, the only thing sacred, or of value, are short term gain/profits; human life and environmental health must fit within that bracket, eds..].
 
One of the many indexes of the failure of American democracy is that our candidates can’t even publicly say the name of our worst nemesis.

© 2012 Juan Cole

Juan Cole teaches Middle Eastern and South Asian history at the University of Michigan. His latest book, Engaging the Muslim World, is just out in a revised paperback edition from Palgrave Macmillan. He is also the author of Napoleon's Egypt: Invading the Middle East (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2007). He has appeared widely on television, radio and on op-ed pages as a commentator on Middle East affairs, and has a regular column at Salon.com. He has written, edited, or translated 14 books and has authored 60 journal articles. His weblog on the contemporary Middle East is Informed Comment.