WHAT'S GOING ON (and how we'd fix it) [and] NITE SHIFT RESET

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJR71e6zTtc

Rockets, moon shots
Spend it on the have nots
Money, we make it
Fore we see it you take it

Oh, make you wanna holler
The way they do my life
Make me wanna holler
The way they do my life
This ain't livin', This ain't livin'
No, no baby, this ain't livin'
No, no, no

Inflation no chance
To increase finance
Bills pile up sky high
Send that boy off to die

Oh, make me wanna holler
The way they do my life
Make me wanna holler
The way they do my life

Dah, dah, dah
Dah, dah, dah

Hang ups, let downs
Bad breaks, set backs
Natural fact is
I can't pay my taxes

Oh, make me wanna holler
And throw up both my hands
Yea, it makes me wanna holler
And throw up both my hands

Crime is increasing
Trigger happy policing
Panic is spreading
God knows where we're heading
Oh, make me wanna holler
They don't understand

Dah, dah, dah
Dah, dah, dah
Dah, dah, dah

Mother, mother
Everybody thinks we're wrong
Who are they to judge us
Simply cause we wear our hair long

Ah...the immortal words of Marvin Gaye, from his masterful 1971 l.p. "What's Going On". Here we are almost 40 years later, and has anything really changed, in this country, or the World, for all that much better, for most people? What do you think? 

Now, I know much of what you read here in the Alaska Progressive Review might be considered depressing, but we feel it is necessary, to describe WHAT'S GOING ON, in our society at large, for better or worse, so that we can make positive changes, to develop a sane, just, and sustainable society, based on meeting people's needs, and respecting Pachemama (the Aymara people's of Bolivia's term for Mother Earth). Rather than one based on greed, which is destroying the environment and maintaining billions of people in abject poverty. And if left unchecked, will bring an end to civilisation as we know it, by the end of this century.  

I'd like to introduce this article that was on today's CommonDreams website, one of our favourite news-sites. Because it illustrates so nicely how the system we live under works, which we'll discuss, and offer our take on it.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/06-5

Published on Tuesday, July 6, 2010 by the San Francisco Chronicle 

Dead Zone in Gulf Linked to Ethanol Production

by Carolyn Lochhead, Chronicle Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON - While the BP oil spill has been labeled the worst environmental catastrophe in recent U.S. history, a biofuel is contributing to a Gulf of Mexico "dead zone" the size of New Jersey that scientists say could be every bit as harmful to the gulf.

The Gulf of Mexico dead zone threatens valuable commercial and recreational Gulf fisheries that generate about $2.8 billion annually. (Credit: NOAA)

Each year, nitrogen used to fertilize corn, about a third of which is made into ethanol, leaches from Midwest croplands into the Mississippi River and out into the gulf, where the fertilizer feeds giant algae blooms. As the algae dies, it settles to the ocean floor and decays, consuming oxygen and suffocating marine life.

Known as hypoxia, the oxygen depletion kills shrimp, crabs, worms and anything else that cannot escape. The dead zone has doubled since the 1980s and is expected this year to grow as large as 8,500 square miles and hug the Gulf Coast from Alabama to Texas.

As to which is worse, the oil spill or the hypoxia, "it's a really tough call," said Nathaniel Ostrom, a zoologist at Michigan State University. "There's no real answer to that question."

Some scientists fear the oil spill will worsen the dead zone, because when oil decomposes, it also consumes oxygen. New government estimates on Thursday indicated that the BP oil spill had gushed as much as 141 million gallons since an oil-rig explosion and well blowout on April 20 that killed 11 workers.

Corn is biggest culprit

The gulf dead zone is the second-largest in the world, after one in the Baltic Sea. Scientists say the biggest culprit is industrial-scale corn production. Corn growers are heavy users of both nitrogen and pesticides. Vast monocultures of corn and soybeans, both subsidized by the federal government, have displaced diversified farms and grasslands throughout the Mississippi Basin.

"The subsidies are driving farmers toward more corn," said Gene Turner, a zoologist at Louisiana State University. "More nitrate comes off corn fields than it does off of any other crop by far. And nitrogen is driving the formation of the dead zone."

The dead zone, he said, is "a symptom of the homogenization of the landscape. We just have a few crops on what used to have all kinds of different vegetation."

In 2007, Congress passed a renewable fuels standard that requires ethanol production to triple in the next 12 years. The Department of Agriculture has just rolled out a plan to meet that goal, including building ethanol refineries in every state. The Environmental Protection Agency will decide soon whether to increase the amount of ethanol in gasoline blends from 10 percent to 15 percent. 

A 2008 National Research Council report warned of a "considerable" increase in damage to the gulf if ethanol production is increased.

Pet cause of Congress

One of the authors of that report, agricultural economist Otto Doering at Purdue University, said that a 50 percent boost in the ethanol blend in gasoline will significantly raise corn prices, driving farmers to pull land out of conservation and pastureland and into corn production. They are also likely to add more nitrogen fertilizers to boost yields.

Corn ethanol has been heavily subsidized since the Arab oil embargo in the 1970s. Viewed by the corn industry as a lucrative market, ethanol is a perennial favorite in Congress.

Ethanol consumes two-thirds of all federal subsidies for renewable fuels, said Ken Cook, president of the Environmental Working Group, an advocacy group, leaving solar, wind and the rest to fight over the remaining third. Corn ethanol cost taxpayers $17 billion from 2005 to 2009, his group estimates.

"This is another industry that's entirely a creature of the government, even more so than corn growing per se," Cook said. "The production of ethanol wouldn't happen at all without government subsidies and protection."

The National Corn Growers Association ran a media blitz in Washington last week to press for the renewal of the 51-cents-a-gallon tax credit for ethanol. With pictures of the BP oil spill looming in the background, the Corn Growers' video announces, "Ethanol: Now is the time."

Conservation plan hurt

The ethanol boom over the past decade has lured farmers to withdraw millions of acres from the Conservation Reserve Program, which pays farms not to plant fragile land. Much of this land has been returned to native prairie grasses, at taxpayer expense. Millions more acres are up for renewal over the next few years.

"There's been a very large-scale conversion of these CRP lands to biofuel production," Ostrom said. Those soils have accumulated carbon from the atmosphere and stored it, becoming "a pretty significant sink for atmospheric CO2," he said. "If we suddenly start farming those soils, we basically release all of the carbon that's been sequestered for decades, and that may more than offset any carbon benefit of switching to biofuels."

To meet its goal of tripling ethanol production, Congress called for more cellulosic ethanol, which is made from wood, crop waste, perennial grasses such as switchgrass, and even native prairie grasses. Perennial grasses are considered far less damaging to the environment than corn because they require less fertilizer and their roots remain in the ground, helping to stabilize the soil and reduce runoff.

But commercial production of cellulosic ethanol remains a pipe dream. It would require large subsidies to dislodge corn ethanol.

There is no experience with commercial production of switchgrass. Purdue's Doering said it will require fertilizer and is likely to be planted on conservation lands and pasture instead of displacing corn.

Joan Nassauer, a professor at the University of Michigan who has studied how alternative agricultural policies could alleviate the dead zone, said cellulosic ethanol could work.

"It might be one of those win-wins, but it's not in production yet," she said. "What we've got now all over the Corn Belt is corn, and that's definitely not a win-win."

© 2010 Hearst Communications Inc. 

What this article shows, is that industry, in this case agribusiness, is driving U.S. government policy, which in turn is destroying significant parts of the global ecosystem, which is all interconnected, and which we all rely on to sustain us. Large agribusiness corporations, which make vast profits from growing and marketing basic commodities (and manipulating prices and supplies) like corn and soybeans, spend millions of dollars annually to fund armies of lobbyists on "K" street in Washington DC to pressure politicians to pass legislation favourable to them. Just as the energy companies lobbied lawmakers on both sides of the aisle to relax regulatory oversight, allowing tragedies like the BP methane/oil gusher-blowout to occur. And of course, all the corporations in the major economic sectors pay to get candidates elected who will defer to their wishes. The insurance industry,  financial, energy, military/defense, transportation, and so on.

This really accelerated during the 1980s, during the Ronnie Ray-gun administration, which worked hard to promote the idea that government was a problem, not a solution, to all of society's wants and needs. And this greedy, sociopathic philosophy (for that really is what it boils down to) is now accepted and promoted as normal and essential by the corporate media in the U.S., and swallowed by most of it's population. Even though it is causing them great suffering, which will continue to worsen, as long as the status quo is maintained.

Then there is this: BP and federal officials are deliberately downplaying/hiding health hazards/effects associated with the Gulf oil poisoning.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/07/07-4 Millions of people will possibly be affected by this over the coming months and years! It will be impossible to hide then.

Your lead author has been asked to dispatch to Venice, Louisiana and Mobile, Alabama in the last week. To serve as an incident meteorologist, forecasting weather conditions for the support/cleanup operations associated with the BP gusher. I haven't been able to go, because we are still putting together the Chugach Front Research Centre. But in a week or so, after we are finished with this, it's quite likely I will. I'm certainly uneasy, but there are very few meteorologists that have oil spill response training and experience, and so I feel a responsibility, as the safety of the people working there is our primary concern. Just have to hope for the best. It will be a great opportunity though for me to learn from people there how operations are proceeding, and how they feel they are being treated. As well as to see first-hand, the actual area/magnitude of the poisoning. We'll keep you posted!

So what are we to do, if we want to change things for the better? To make our national and global society healthy and sustainable, before it is too late? The Alaska Progressive Review thinks first that we need to step back, and examine just what we believe in, and lay out our priorities. Then find people and political organisations that believe as we do, and support them. So, for your edification, this is what we think, and would like to see.

That all human beings are entitled to food, clothing, shelter, medical care, education, and the possibility to engage in meaningful work that will benefit themselves and their families, as well as their society at large. THESE ARE HUMAN RIGHTS not "SOMETHING FOR NOTHING" as many conservatives like to describe social benefits, in countries that offer them. Many of them, if not most, probably never knew what it feels like to be out of work, with no prospects, while their families suffer. Now that almost all the manufacturing in the US has been outsourced to China and other low-wage countries (driven in part by governmental tax credits from the 1980s on, lobbied for by, guess who?), where are the 20 percent of the working population of this country who are unemployed going to find jobs [the official rate is listed as around 9.2 percent, but hey, guess what, the criteria for measuring unemployment, was changed in....the 1980s! eds]?

Something for nothing? How about the bailouts of the criminally greedy financial institutions, "too large to fail", that nearly destroyed the global economy, and which will end up costing trillions of dollars? Or, no-bid contracts for grossly inflated, un-necessary, and destructive weapons systems, in the offense (defense) industry.

But the "oligarchy" (large corporations, etc...) who drive US, and increasingly, global economic and political policy like having high percentages of unemployment. Because then desperate people will work for increasingly lower wages, and in worse conditions, raising profits. Which is why we will not see any significant relief in the overall dismal employment situation in this country, and why it will get worse, as long as the major two parties are in power in the US. And, within a few decades we will live in a society very much like the third world, where poor people literally die in the streets, and if they can find work, it is hard, physically debilitating, and without medical or retirement benefits. Don't believe us? Visit Mexico any time, it's the easiest for us in the US to see, and quite representative of how most of the World's population lives. 

Within a few decades, if not sooner, this is what we'll be seeing on the streets of any city in the US. A ten year old child (child labour still occurs in these countries), in this case, in Bangladesh, part of a group protesting low wages in their garment industry a few weeks ago, set upon by the police, paid for by their corporate masters. Look at your clothing labels, if anything is made in Bangladesh, this is what you are paying for! Those that are fortunate enough in these kind of societies to be in the "middle" or "upper class", surrounded by the prevailing poverty, live cloistered in fear behind walls and gated communities. In my Bolivian and Peruvian travels a few years ago, in the "richer" areas, the walled houses had razor-wire and broken glass on tops of them! Coming soon...to neighbourhoods like yours! If nothing is done soon...

So this is why we must first educate ourselves and others to WHAT'S GOING ON, and then find people and groups to work with to effect positive changes. We don't have much time! Here at the Alaska Progressive Review, we support the Green Party, as they espouse the same ideals and goals as we do. All the socialist parties, for the most part, do as well. 

What would we do, if the Alaska Progressive Review could decide on governmental policies? First and foremost, immediately cease all military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, and bring all the soldiers and civilian contractors home.

Negotiate with the governments of those countries for reparations payments to be made to them, for the death and destruction caused by the illegal and immoral actions in their countries.


Slash the military offense (not defense) budget by 3/4, and close all overseas bases, 700 or more in number.

End "corporate personhood" by a constitutional amendment, and change campaign financing laws to only allow government funding of candidates, who initially are pre-screened by voters, then those selected in this process, stand in a general election. Immediately end "bailout" programmes to the finance industry, and force repayment from them. Implement small financial transaction taxes on stock, bond, and investment purchases. Strictly regulate this industry to downsize the larger institutions, and prevent them from engaging in risky and destructive trading/investment schemes. Create a national bank that caters to smaller customers for basic loans for housing, transportation, small business development, education, etc.. Declare college educations to be accessible to all, through guaranteed zero-interest loans, repayable after the student enters the workforce, with repayment scalable to income.

Amend the Constitution to declare that food, clothing, shelter, medical care, and gainful employment, are human rights, and set policy accordingly. For example, expanding medicare to cover the entire population, and creating massive public-works programmes to rehabilitate decaying infrastructure such as roads, bridges, rail-lines, schools, and hospitals.

Increase corporate income tax rates to companies that have outsourced significant portions of their labour force. Give tax credits to those who will return jobs to this country. Give tax credits to worker-owned, and publicly owned cooperatives, like credit unions, farmers cooperatives, public utilities, etc.. Either nationalise or strictly regulate corporations that government regulations require people to purchase from. Automobile insurance companies, for instance.

Expropriate the resources and infrastructure of all the major energy companies and merge them into a nationalised energy sector. Expropriate all the major "defense" corporations resources and infrastructures, unless they agree to be bought out for fair and reasonable sums. Put the people and resources of these high-technology corporations immediately to work developing and building alternative energy and transportation sources (solar power stations in desert areas, wind-farms, geothermal power stations, high-speed inter-city rail systems, intra-city light-rail systems, improved battery technology for electric cars, intensive algae cultivation to produce aviation fuel that is carbon neutral, etc..).

So there you have it, some ideas from us, about how we would like to change things. The important thing is to think about these things, talk about them with people, and support groups and politicians who can help make them happen. Forget the commercial, corporate media, for the most part. Get your real and unbiased news from web-sites like truthout.org, counterpunch.org, commondreams.org, and many others. Together, we need to make a difference, before it is too late! We must have a political and economic system that is based on meeting people's needs, and respecting the environment, it's that simple. There is no alternative, if we with to preserve some form of civilisation.

                                            NITE SHIFT RESET  

Part of your lead editor's other job as a meteorologist, which helps fund the Chugach Front Research Centre, and the activities of the Alaska Progressive Review, entails working night shifts, about one week out of four. After working a string of these, I need to come back to the day world, as after a few days off, I'll be on day shifts again. And I much prefer being a day person. One thing I've found which really helps me make that transition, is to do something physically tiring, so that after getting off my last shift in the morning, that same night, I'll fall down hard, and get a good sleep. And be mostly transitioned, in one night. It usually works quite well.

This last 04 July, after working five 10 hour nite shifts, from 1900-0500, I slept about four hours, got up, and we decided a good thing to do, would be to hike up to Konoya point a 1423 metre (4669 ft) knob in the Chugach Range, visible from, and looming above the Chugach Front Research Centre.

We would have liked to do an overnight or two night pack trip, but the weather promised to get colder and rainy at the higher elevations, so we decided just to make a day hike out of it. But which would still tire us out, as it is a very steep route, going from only 30 metres elevation, up to 1423, in only 8-9 km (though the last 3 km were very steep).

The view from the Research Centre in the morning, after we got up, showed the higher peaks in the clouds. But we were expecting some clearing, so we headed up around noon. Less than a KM from the research centre is our portal to a different world. A small trail cuts in to the wilderness from the end of 36th street. As soon as we enter the boreal forest of birch, aspen, and spruce, the sights and sounds of the city vanish, on the small, rocky, rooty trail. This in turn, leads to the "Tank Road". A road that travels through this area of the Fort Richardson army base, which tanks sometimes do travel upon. But in our several weeks of using it, we've seen very few people, and no vehicles. Another KM down the Tank Road, takes us to the North Fork of Campbell Creek trail, which is not listed or described in any guidebooks. It leads right to the top of Konoya Point, and has side trails that connect with others.

The lower parts of this trail are overgrown with grass and shrubs, prime bear country! We see lots of bear scat, but so far, never have seen any actual bears. Mattie and Homer are always wearing bells though, so they know we are coming!

In much of South-Central Alaska 1/3 or more of the standing spruce has been killed by bug infestations, due to the warmer winters of the last 30+ years. Very unfortunate.

As we get higher, towards 600 metres or so, the boreal forest starts opening up into stunted alder and willow thickets, before giving way entirely to tundra, above 900 metres, due to the much cooler summer conditions at and above this elevation.

At this point, you can start to see the layout of the valley of the North Fork of Campbell Creek, which is a classic, glacially-carved, U-shaped valley (during the ice ages, 10K+ years ago). 

Konoya point, where we are headed, is the highest exposed point on the left, here.

The trail steepens rapidly above this point. When we run up to here, it's too steep, I have to break stride and walk.

At this point, around 1000 metres (3280 feet), we are entirely above tree-line. Every time I've been up here since late May, temperatures have only been around 5-10C (41-50F), with stiff winds, which is why there are no trees! Low pressure systems, with cool air, often hang over the Gulf of Alaska, just to our south, and in these, free-air freezing levels are often only 1500-2500 metres (4920 to 7300 feet). Meaning, that not too much higher above, the temperature drops to near freezing, and below. And nothing much can grow.

There are three level benches on this route, that make for good photo, lunch, rest, or camping spots. This is the second one, at about 1300 metres (3600 feet). There was a good stiff southeast wind here (the circulation around a low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska), and the temperature was probably about 6-7C (43-45F). 

One thing we found interesting was just a little higher from this spot, a few scattered mountain hemlock trees were growing. They looked like they were 20-30 years old, at most. It is our supposition that the warmer winters, and slightly warmer summers, are allowing these trees to expand their range further north, and higher in elevation. As they are usually found in milder, maritime mountains, south of here.

I was mentally rather foggy, from my five night shifts, and sleeping only four hours. But Mattie, as usual, was displaying her tremendous level of energy, running up and down the steepest slopes at full bore. If only I could do that! Her energy and exuberance in these settings is truly inspiring.

Equally inspiring, as we ascended, were the views in every direction. The city of Anchorage bustles 1100 metres below, as a few clouds begin to move in.

As we got above 1200 metres (4000 + feet), clouds began building in. We were hoping it would stay clear enough, so that we could see the trail and adjacent slopes, as it gets quite steep and rocky toward the top of Konoya Point.

As air ascends these slopes and cools, the relative humidity increases, and clouds form, if the air is moist enough to begin with (and often it is here, days can go by sometimes where we can't see the tops of the peaks from the Research Centre).

In fact, as we got to within only about 50 metres of the summit, the clouds closed in. We turned back, because I was mentally foggy, and the trail was very steep and rocky, requiring some scrambling, and I needed good visibility. We came down some, then went on the other side of the ridge though, where it was clearer, and got some good views, down into the valley. On the far right is the U-shaped N. Fork of Campbell Creek valley. Such beautiful terrain here, and this high in the tundra, the footing is good, and you can go anywhere. There is a trail that branches off this one, just a KM in from the Tank Road, following the creek on the north bank. However, it is very overgrown and brushy. And we feel, probably unsafe, as brown and black bears will be in there, while the salmon are running. It'll be a great ski route in winter though, not too steep, and penetrating directly into the heart of the Chugach. Can't wait!

There is great beauty in every natural setting, no matter where you may find yourself. Here of course, it's not hard to see! The colour of this lichen-covered rock is pretty interesting.

And on smaller scales too. The tundra vegetation contains dwarf species of birch, willow, and aspen, as well as small, ground-hugging flowers like these phlox. Staying low to keep out of the ceaseless cold winds at these higher elevations. A marvel of natural adaptation to this harsh environment.

After about four hours of hiking, up, then down, we stopped at a little pond for lunch, and a short nap (I was quite mentally tired at this point). Just about 15 minutes really refreshed me. I find short naps like this can work wonders, whenever I'm tired, and during long hikes, bikes, or ski outings, sometimes I will take one at an opportune time, and feel much better afterward. 

Homer and Mattie were very happy to be out and in their element, which shows on their faces.

Homer's energy level picks up markedly the cooler it gets, with his thick coat. Even yesterday, at his mature age of 14, he ran 32 KM with Mattie and, such an inspiration!

Mattie of course, never ceases to amaze us, with her amazing energy, endurance, and courage. Yesterday on our 32 KM run, she chased and ran off a cow moose and calf, though I tried to stop her. I had a talk with her afterward, we'll see if it does any good.

Her fearlessness is comforting, though, because I know she'll give her all for us, if a bear sets upon us, but I don't want her to get injured! Who would ever guess this sweet little 29 kg three year old lab/husky mix would have that in her! Where did that come from?

We finished our hike in six hours, traveling up 1300 metres, then back down. After my nap and lunch on the trail, I felt much better, and was able to stay up until 2300, then get a good night's sleep, to transition back to the day world the next morning. We are so fortunate to be able to do this right from our door!

UNCHARTED WATERS [and] PANDORA'S WELL

Greetings folks, with the untamed methane/oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico (and which threatens to be a planetary disaster - more on this later), we've not been paying much attention until recently of the other most urgent environmental issue facing us. Global Warming. As we've mentioned before in previous articles, we are in UNCHARTED WATERS, scientifically, and environmentally speaking, when it comes to the state of the atmosphere, and it's increasing CO2 and Methane concentrations, from our reliance on fossil fuels.

http://akprogressive.blogspot.com/2009/12/what-seems-likely-based-on-what-weve.html

Research has shown that the last time the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was as high as it is now, 390 ppm (from naturally occuring volcanism then), 200,000 years ago, global sea levels were five to seven metres higher. What is not known about then, is how long it took for those sea levels to rise, based on how fast the atmospheric CO2 levels increased. So, in our estimation, here at A.P.R., based on our decades of experience analysing the global weather and climate, we have to expect, that this is going to happen again. But when? Well, as our previous articles have described, disturbing signs are appearing on the Greenland ice sheet, and in portions of the fringes of Antarctica. Melt water has opened holes through these each summer, over the past decade or more, and it's surmised that this water flowing down to the bottoms of these glacial sheets is acting to lubricate the bases of them, which could allow them to surge rapidly, possibly even in massive chunks, breaking from their land base, then slumping into the surrounding seas.  Which would then create catastrophic sea level rises, in a period of 10 to 20 years, possibly faster! IT'S NOT A MATTER OF IF, BUT WHEN! Remember also, CO2 concentrations are increasing now at 3-4 ppm per year, so 30 years from now, it will be at least 500 ppm, possibly more. Which has never appeared in the past several million years (though in the End-Permian extinction event, 250 MYA, volcanism-released CO2 reached greater levels, and 95% of all life on Earth disappeared from the geological record!).

But will it be ten years from now, twenty, fifty, or a hundred? There are researchers trying to assess this, but the U.S. and other governments so far have not really put alot of emphasis or funding into this vital research question. Which will affect the state of civilisation as we know it. 

This is the latest from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

 June 8, 2010

Arctic sea ice extent declines rapidly in MayIn May, Arctic air temperatures remained above average, and sea ice extent declined at a rapid pace. At the end of the month, extent fell near the level recorded in 2006, the lowest in the satellite record for the end of May. Analysis from scientists at the University of Washington suggests that ice volume has continued to decline compared to recent years. However, it is too soon to say whether Arctic ice extent will reach another record low this summer—that will depend on the weather and wind conditions over the next few months.

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for May 2010 was 13.10 million square kilometers (5.06 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image

Overview of conditions
Arctic sea ice extent averaged 13.10 million square kilometers (5.06 million square miles) for the month of May, 500,000 square kilometers (193,000 square miles) below the 1979 to 2000 average. The rate of ice extent decline for the month was -68,000 kilometers (-26,000 square miles) per day, almost 50% more than the average rate of -46,000 kilometers (18,000 square miles) per day. This rate of loss is the highest for the month of May during the satellite record.

Ice extent remained slightly above average in the Bering Sea, and below average in the Barents Sea north of Scandinavia, and in Baffin Bay.

Figure 2. The graph above shows daily sea ice extent as of June 7, 2010. The solid light blue line indicates 2010; dashed green shows 2007; solid pink shows 2006, and solid gray indicates average extent from 1979 to 2000. The gray area around the average line shows the two standard deviation range of the data. Sea Ice Index data.
—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

High-resolution image

Conditions in context

As we noted in our May post, several regions of the Arctic experienced a late-season spurt in ice growth. As a result, ice extent reached its seasonal maximum much later than average, and in turn the melt season began almost a month later than average. As ice began to decline in April, the rate was close to the average for that time of year.

In sharp contrast, ice extent declined rapidly during the month of May. Much of the ice loss occurred in the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk, indicating that the ice in these areas was thin and susceptible to melt. Many polynyas, areas of open water in the ice pack, opened up in the regions north of Alaska, in the Canadian Arctic Islands, and in the Kara and Barents and Laptev seas.

The polynyas are clearly visible in high-resolution passive microwave images from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Radiometer (AMSR-E) aboard NASA’s Aqua satellite. What do current ice conditions mean for the minimum ice extent this fall? It is still too soon to say: although ice extent at present is relatively low, the amount of ice that survives the summer melt season will be largely determined by the wind and weather conditions over the next few months.

What this article is showing, is this. The Arctic sea ice, once again, is approaching record low-levels this year, and stands a very good chance of breaking 2007's record low summer extent. And, it is 3.5 standard deviations below the 1979-2000 average. Summer so far here in Alaska has been only slightly above-average, temperature-wise, for the bulk of the interior, and along the southern coastal fringes. But along the North Slope and in the Arctic Ocean just to the north, high pressure ridging has been dominating for the past few months. Which basically is a warmer than average air-mass. As long as this pattern continues, and continues to recur more often (which it is), summer temperatures over the Alaska and Western Canadian portion of the Arctic will remain above average, and increased ice melting will continue. Already, much more of the Arctic ice, as a whole, is thinner now than in decades past, as much as 30-40%, as it freezes later in the fall, and melts earlier, each spring. Global climate change modeling was, just up to five years ago, predicting summer ice-free Arctic Ocean conditions not occurring until 2060 or 2070. Now, many climate researchers are estimating it will happen in five to ten years. This will be a "tipping point" in the global climate balance, as then the Earth's overall "albedo" (the percentage of solar radiation reflected back to space, which is a net cooling factor), will be greatly increased. The waters of the Arctic Ocean will warm up much more quickly, absorbing much more solar radiation, and will then take longer to freeze in autumn. This warmer water will help erode the bases of the glaciers of  Greenland, and the northern Canadian Islands (such as Baffin and Ellesmere Islands). 

This combined with their summer melt lubrication of their bases, could then result in their quick collapse into the surrounding seas, and then the rapid global sea level rises. This is why, in our previous article, a fictional future projection, we came up with those timelines. We hope we are too soon in this projection, but all the World governments, and the UN need to understand, THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN, AND WE NEED TO START PLANNING FOR IT.

        PANDORA'S WELL

All of us here at the Alaska Progressive Review like to look at things in a positive constructive light, when we can. And to realise that we all have a significant hand in creating our own personal realities, based on our own beliefs and expectations.

However, sometimes large-scale events are of such significance, that we have to have to realise, this is going to affect all of us, in ways that could be very detrimental, and we need to stay abreast of the latest ACCURATE information, and share it with you. The untamed British Petroleum methane/oil gusher, 1500 metres below the surface of the Gulf of Mexico, stemming from a blown-out well that extends another 6100 metres (20,000 feet) below the sea-floor, IS AN EVENT WITHOUT PRECEDENT IN HUMAN HISTORY, and has the potential to harm not just the Gulf of Mexico's ecosystems (frankly, it looks like much of the Gulf will soon be a dead zone), but eventually the Atlantic Ocean's, and possibly more.

Before we delve more into that, did any of you listen to President Obama's speech earlier this week? I'm sorry, but we gave him some benefit of our doubt when he was elected, but almost nothing his administration has done, has been much different than the previous criminally sociopathic Bush's. The appointing of Wall Street criminals to high posts in the current administration, no change in ending the disastrous, immoral, and bankrupting wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and now, still catering to the oil industries whims.

http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2010/06/19-0

But in his speech, he actually said that the "Gulf would be restored to not just as it was before, but better!" That is not going to happen, in any of our lifetimes. We're sorry to say. And he had to have known this, had to! Because there are thousands of competent scientists working in the federal government who can, and have, analysed the video stream of the gushing blown-out well on the sea-floor. And who have calculated that the actual gush rate is between 60,000 and 115,000 barrels per day (10,080,000 to 19,320,000 litres). Or, one Exxon Valdez spill, every 4 to 5 days, since 20 April! And even if British Petroleum is able to do as they say, and drill relief wells, which would then take the pressure of this one, that is still two months, minimum, away, not counting any hurricane disruption! So why the overt lies? Well, our best guess, is to cover for his corporate patrons, who got him elected, and keep the pressure on him. But the grim reality of what will happen to the Gulf of Mexico, it's ecosystems, fisheries, tourism, and hence, economic base, will not be denied, in the coming months. Which will spread throughout the USA. A large percentage of the seafood consumed in this country, comes from the Gulf of Mexico. Agriculture in Florida has the potential to be adversely affected, if oil-laden winds blow inland from tropical storms or hurricanes. And what of the health effects of this on the people in these areas?

This is actually worse, for this administration, and the country, than Chernobyl was, for the Soviets. Because at least with Chernobyl, once the fires in the graphite control-rod dampered nuclear reactor's core were extinguished, and then covered with cement sarcophagi, the uncontrolled emission of deadly radiation ceased. And although several hundred thousand people had to be relocated, it was a one-time event. Not a continuing one. People around the Gulf of Mexico are going to learn a hard lesson what unrestrained Capitalism brings.

However, that is the best-case scenario. I'm almost despondent having to share this information, because it is heart-breaking, and terrifying, if it is true.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/6593/648967

We found this web-site last week, which is moderated by professionals in the global oil industry, and has knowledgeable contributors who provide informed commentary. This particular link has a discussion of the Deepwater Horizon tragedy, and what this particular commenter's take on it is. He is a professional in the oil industry. Here is some of that discussion, then we'll provide some of our own commentary, it's long, but worth the reading, because it describes the mess in terms everyone can understand:

"Editors' note for first-time visitors: What follows is a comment from a The Oil Drum reader. To read what The Oil Drum staff members are saying about the Deepwater Horizon Spill, please visit the front page. (Were the US government and BP more forthcoming with information and details, the situation would not be giving rise to so much speculation about what is actually going on in the Gulf. This should be run more like Mission Control at NASA than an exclusive country club function--it is a public matter--transparency, now!)

OK let's get real about the GOM oil flow. There doesn't really seem to be much info on TOD that furthers more complete understanding of what's really happening in the GOM.

As you have probably seen and maybe feel yourselves, there are several things that do not appear to make sense regarding the actions of attack against the well. Don't feel bad, there is much that doesn't make sense even to professionals unless you take into account some important variables that we are not being told about. There seems to me to be a reluctance to face what cannot be termed anything less than grim circumstances in my opinion. There certainly is a reluctance to inform us regular people and all we have really gotten is a few dots here and there...

First of all...set aside all your thoughts of plugging the well and stopping it from blowing out oil using any method from the top down. Plugs, big valves to just shut it off, pinching the pipe closed, installing a new bop [blow out preventer, eds] or lmrp, shooting any epoxy in it, top kills with mud etc etc etc....forget that, it won't be happening..it's done and over. In fact actually opening up the well at the subsea source and allowing it to gush more is not only exactly what has happened, it was probably necessary, or so they think anyway.

So you have to ask WHY? Why make it worse?...there really can only be one answer and that answer does not bode well for all of us. It's really an inescapable conclusion at this point, unless you want to believe that every Oil and Gas professional involved suddenly just forgot everything they know or woke up one morning and drank a few big cups of stupid and got assigned to directing the response to this catastrophe. Nothing makes sense unless you take this into account, but after you do...you will see the "sense" behind what has happened and what is happening. That conclusion is this:

The well bore structure is compromised "Down hole".

That is something which is a "Worst nightmare" conclusion to reach. While many have been saying this for some time as with any complex disaster of this proportion many have "said" a lot of things with no real sound reasons or evidence for jumping to such conclusions, well this time it appears that they may have jumped into the right place...

TOP KILL - FAILS:

This was probably our best and only chance to kill this well from the top down. This "kill mud" is a tried and true method of killing wells and usually has a very good chance of success. The depth of this well presented some logistical challenges, but it really should not of presented any functional obstructions. The pumping capacity was there and it would have worked, should have worked, but it didn't.

It didn't work, but it did create evidence of what is really happening. First of all the method used in this particular top kill made no sense, did not follow the standard operating procedure used to kill many other wells and in fact for the most part was completely contrary to the procedure which would have given it any real chance of working.

When a well is "Killed" using this method heavy drill fluid "Mud" is pumped at high volume and pressure into a leaking well. The leaks are "behind" the point of access where the mud is fired in, in this case the "choke and Kill lines" which are at the very bottom of the BOP (Blow Out Preventer) The heavy fluid gathers in the "behind" portion of the leaking well assembly, while some will leak out, it very quickly overtakes the flow of oil and only the heavier mud will leak out. Once that "solid" flow of mud is established at the leak "behind" the well, the mud pumps increase pressure and begin to overtake the pressure of the oil deposit. The mud is established in a solid column that is driven downward by the now stronger pumps. The heavy mud will create a solid column that is so heavy that the oil deposit can no longer push it up, shut off the pumps...the well is killed...it can no longer flow.

Usually this will happen fairly quickly, in fact for it to work at all...it must happen quickly. There is no "trickle some mud in" because that is not how a top kill works. The flowing oil will just flush out the trickle and a solid column will never be established. Yet what we were told was "It will take days to know whether it

worked"...."Top kill might take 48 hours to complete"...the only way it could take days is if BP intended to do some "test fires" to test integrity of the entire system. The actual "kill" can only take hours by nature because it must happen fairly rapidly. It also increases strain on the "behind" portion and in this instance we all know that what remained was fragile at best.

Early that afternoon we saw a massive flow burst out of the riser "plume" area. This was the first test fire of high pressure mud injection. Later on same day we saw a greatly increased flow out of the kink leaks, this was mostly mud at that time as the kill mud is tanish color due to the high amount of Barite which is added to it to weight it and Barite is a white powder.

We later learned the pumping was shut down at midnight, we weren't told about that until almost 16 hours later, but by then...I'm sure BP had learned the worst. The mud they were pumping in was not only leaking out the "behind" leaks...it was leaking out of someplace forward...and since they were not even near being able to pump mud into the deposit itself, because the well would be dead long before...and the oil was still coming up, there could only be one conclusion...the wells casings were ruptured and it was leaking "down hole"

They tried the "Junk shot"...the "bridging materials" which also failed and likely made things worse in regards to the ruptured well casings.

"Despite successfully pumping a total of over 30,000 barrels of heavy mud, in three attempts at rates of up to

80 barrels a minute, and deploying a wide range of different bridging materials, the operation did not overcome the flow from the well."

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7062487

80 Barrels per minute is over 200,000 gallons per hour, over 115,000 barrels per day...did we seen an increase over and above what was already leaking out of 115k bpd?....we did not...it would have been a massive increase in order of multiples and this did not happen.

"The whole purpose is to get the kill mud down,” said Wells. “We'll have 50,000 barrels of mud on hand to kill this well. It's far more than necessary, but we always like to have backup."

Try finding THAT quote around...it's been scrubbed...here's a cached copy of a quote...

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:WDj-HORTmIoJ:www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/deepwaterhorizon/7006870.html+%E2%809CThe+whole+purpose+is+to+get+the+kill+mud+down,%E2%80%9D+said+Wells.+%E2%80%9CWe'll+have+50,000+barrels+of+mud+on+hand+to+kill+this+well.+It's+far+more+than+necessary,+but+we+always+like+to+have+backup.%E2%80%9D&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us

"The "top kill" effort, launched Wednesday afternoon by industry and government engineers, had pumped enough drilling fluid to block oil and gas spewing from the well, Allen said. The pressure from the well was very low, he said, but persisting."

"Allen said one ship that was pumping fluid into the well had run out of the fluid, or "mud," and that a second ship was on the way. He said he was encouraged by the progress."

http://www.houmatoday.com/article/20100527/ARTICLES/100529348

Later we found out that Allen had no idea what was really going on and had been "Unavailable all day"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/05/27/interview_with_coas...

So what we had was BP running out of 50,000 barrels of mud in a very short period of time. An amount far and above what they deemed necessary to kill the well. Shutting down pumping 16 hours before telling anyone, including the president. We were never really given a clear reason why "Top Kill" failed, just that it couldn't overcome the well.

There is only one article anywhere that says anything else about it at this time of writing...and it's a relatively obscure article from the wall street journal "online" citing an unnamed source.

"WASHINGTON—BP PLC has concluded that its "top-kill" attempt last week to seal its broken well in the Gulf of Mexico may have failed due to a malfunctioning disk inside the well about 1,000 feet below the ocean floor.

The disk, part of the subsea safety infrastructure, may have ruptured during the surge of oil and gas up the well on April 20 that led to the explosion aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig, BP officials said. The rig sank two days later, triggering a leak that has since become the worst in U.S. history.

The broken disk may have prevented the heavy drilling mud injected into the well last week from getting far enough down the well to overcome the pressure from the escaping oil and gas, people familiar with BP's findings said. They said much of the drilling mud may also have escaped from the well into the rock formation outside the wellbore.

As a result, BP wasn't able to get sufficient pressure to keep the oil and gas at bay. If they had been able to build up sufficient pressure, the company had hoped to pump in cement and seal off the well. The effort was deemed a failure on Saturday.

BP started the top-kill effort Wednesday afternoon, shooting heavy drilling fluids into the broken valve known as a blowout preventer. The mud was driven by a 30,000 horsepower pump installed on a ship at the surface. But it was clear from the start that a lot of the "kill mud" was leaking out instead of going down into the well."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870487560457528013357716426...

There are some inconsistencies with this article.

There are no "Disks" or "Subsea safety structure" 1,000 feet below the sea floor, all that is there is well bore. There is nothing that can allow the mud or oil to "escape" into the rock formation outside the well bore except the well, because it is the only thing there.

All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.

I took some time to go into a bit of detail concerning the failure of Top Kill because this was a significant event. To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, it was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.

What does this mean?

It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad,

same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.

Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons.

There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself. The very large steel connectors of the initial well head "spud" stabbed in to the sea floor. The Bop literally sits on top of the pipe and never touches the sea bed, it wouldn't do anything in way of support if it did. After several tens of feet the seabed does begin to support the well connection laterally (side to side) you couldn't put a 450 ton piece of machinery on top of a 100' tall pipe "in the air" and subject it to the side loads caused by the ocean currents and expect it not to bend over...unless that pipe was very much larger than the machine itself, which you all can see it is not. The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over.

If you have been watching the live feed cams you may have noticed that some of the ROVs are using an inclinometer...and inclinometer is an instrument that measures "Incline" or tilt. The BOP is not supposed to be tilting...and after the riser clip off operation it has begun to...

This is not the only problem that occurs due to erosion of the outer area of the well casings. The way a well casing assembly functions it that it is an assembly of different sized "tubes" that decrease in size as they go down. These tubes have a connection to each other that is not unlike a click or snap together locking action. After a certain length is assembled they are cemented around the ouside to the earth that the more rough drill hole is bored through in the well making process. A very well put together and simply explained process of "How to drill a deep water oil well" is available here:

http://www.treesfullofmoney.com/?p=1610

The well bore casings rely on the support that is created by the cementing phase of well construction. Just like if you have many hands holding a pipe up you could put some weight on the top and the many hands could hold the pipe and the weight on top easily...but if there were no hands gripping and holding the pipe?...all the weight must be held up by the pipe alone. The series of connections between the sections of casings are not designed to hold up the immense weight of the BOP without all the "hands" that the cementing provides and they will eventually buckle and fail when stressed beyond their design limits.

These are clear and present dangers to the battered subsea safety structure (bop and lmrp) which is the only loose cork on this well we have left. The immediate (first 1,000 feet) of well structure that remains is now also undoubtedly compromised. However.....as bad as that is?...it is far from the only possible problems with this very problematic well. There were ongoing troubles with the entire process during the drilling of this well. There were also many comprises made by BP IMO which may have resulted in an overall weakened structure of the entire well system all the way to the bottom plug which is over 12,000 feet deep. Problems with the cementing procedure which was done by Haliburton and was deemed as “was against our best practices.” by a Haliburton employee on April 1st weeks before the well blew out. There is much more and I won't go into detail right now concerning the lower end of the well and the troubles encountered during the whole creation of this well and earlier "Well control" situations that were revieled in various internal BP e-mails. I will add several links to those documents and quotes from them below and for now, address the issues concerning the upper portion of the well and the region of the sea floor.

What is likely to happen now?

Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well.

We can only hope the race against that eventuality is one we can win, but my assessment I am sad to say is that we will not.

The system will collapse or fail substantially before we reach the finish line ahead of the well and the worst is yet to come.

Sorry to bring you that news, I know it is grim, but that is the way I see it....I sincerely hope I am wrong.

We need to prepare for the possibility of this blow out sending more oil into the gulf per week then what we already have now, because that is what a collapse of the system will cause. All the collection efforts that have captured oil will be erased in short order. The magnitude of this disaster will increase exponentially by the time we can do anything to halt it and our odds of actually even being able to halt it will go down.

The magnitude and impact of this disaster will eclipse anything we have known in our life times if the worst or even near worst happens...

We are seeing the puny forces of man vs the awesome forces of nature.

We are going to need some luck and a lot of effort to win...

and if nature decides we ought to lose, we will....

Reference materials:

On April 1, a job log written by a Halliburton employee, Marvin Volek, warns that BP’s use of cement “was

against our best practices.”

An April 18 internal Halliburton memorandum indicates that Halliburton again warned BP about its practices,

this time saying that a “severe” gas flow problem would occur if the casings were not centered more carefully.

Around that same time, a BP document shows, company officials chose a type of casing with a greater risk of collapsing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/06/us/06rig.html?pagewanted=1&sq=at_issue...

Mark Hafle, the BP drilling engineer who wrote plans for well casings and cement seals on the Deepwater

Horizon's well, testified that the well had lost thousands of barrels of mud at the bottom. But he said models

run onshore showed alterations to the cement program would resolve the issues, and when asked if a cement

failure allowed the well to "flow" gas and oil, he wouldn't capitulate.

Hafle said he made several changes to casing designs in the last few days before the well blew, including the

addition of the two casing liners that weren't part of the original well design because of problems where the

earthen sides of the well were "ballooning." He also worked with Halliburton engineers to design a plan for

sealing the well casings with cement.

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/05/hearings_bp_ce...

http://media.nola.com/news_impact/other/oil-cause-050710.pdf

Casing joint

http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/files/OGL00001.gif

http://www.glossary.oilfield.slb.com/files/OGL00003.gif

Kill may take until Christmas

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-02/bp-gulf-of-mexico-oil-leak-...

BP Used Riskier Method to Seal Well Before Blast

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/27/us/27rig.html

There you have it folks. Information we here at the Alaska Progressive Review certainly trust more than that coming from BP or our CSA government (Corporate States of America). There are even more apocalyptic scenarios being discussed by other geologists, surmising that if the seafloor totally collapses around this well, and the entire vast highly pressurised methane/oil deposit is open to the sea, that tremendous quantities of methane gas would surface, accelerating global warming, and even posing a health hazard to people in the region! We only hope these are just worst-case surmises, and won't be the reality! Vaya con dios.